SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP42
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 15, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

Although we saw sunspots on every day of this reporting week
(October 7-13), solar activity declined somewhat. Average daily
sunspot numbers went from 30.7 to 23.7, and average daily solar flux
from 86.9 to 85.6. Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with average
daily planetary A index rising from 8.1 to 12.4, and average daily
middle latitude A index from 6.7 to 10.1.

On Saturday, October 9, Spaceweather.com reported a strong
Earth-directed M1.6 class solar flare and CME erupting at 0640 UTC,
causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean. This
caused the planetary A index on October 12 to hit 45, and Alaska's
College A index to read 60.

Predicted solar flux is 82 on October 15, 80 and 78 on October
16-17, 76 on October 18-22, 85 on October 23-24, then 90, 100, 95
and 90 on October 25-28, 88 on October 29-30, 85 on October 31
through November 5, 88 on November 6, 85 on November 7-13, 88 on
November 14-15, 90 on November 16, 88 on November 17-18, and back to
100 on November 22.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 15-16, 5 on October 17,
12 on October 18-19, 8 on October 20, 5 on October 21-24, 10 on
October 25, 5 on October 26 to November 1, 8 on November 2, 5 on
November 3-5, 10 on November 6-7, 8 on November 8-9, 5 on November
10-12, then 10, 12, 12, 10 and 8 on November 13-17, and 5 on
November 18-20, then 10 on November 21, and 5 through the end of the
month.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 15 to November
09, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: October 16-17, November 3, 5,
quiet to unsettled on: October 20-22, 24, 26-27, 30-31, November 4,
quiet to active on: October 23, 25, November 6,
unsettled to active on: October (15, 18-19, 28-29,) November (1-2,) 7-9,
Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.

"Solar wind will intensify on October (19, 22, 25,) 27-31, November
1, 9.

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

On October 12, Spaceweather.com reported in an email alert: "Last
night, a coronal mass ejection (CME) struck Earth's magnetic field,
sparking a moderately strong geomagnetic storm. Auroras were sighted
in the USA as far south as Nebraska with lights so bright in some
places that onlookers successfully photographed them using cell
phones."

The November 2021 issue of QST arrived, and the article on page 70, "Propagation Tools and Resources for Contesting" by WO1N, KC2G and
members of the Yankee Clipper Contest Club, shares some great
resources, not only of interest to contest operators.

Here's an interesting article on 60 meters propagation:

https://bit.ly/2YNlHLN

The latest video report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/XrPW4337IHI

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 7 through 13, 2021 were 13, 13, 14, 38,
35, 26, and 27, with a mean of 23.7. 10.7 cm flux was 85.7, 92.4,
81, 84.5, 88.5, 83.5, and 83.5, with a mean of 85.6. Estimated
planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 13, 45, and 6, with a mean of
12.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 4, 9, 15, 32, and 5, with a
mean of 10.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP43
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 22, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity declined last week, and on one day (October 17) there
were no sunspots at all. Most days this week had the minimum
non-zero sunspot number, which is 11, indicating a single sunspot
group containing a single sunspot.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 23.7 to 11.3, and average
daily solar flux dropped seven points from 85.6 to 78.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average planetary A index
declining from 12.4 to 8.4, and average middle latitude A index from
10.1 to 5.4. No middle latitude A index was available for October
16-18, so middle latitude A index figures presented at the bottom of
this bulletin are uneducated guesses on my part.

Despite the lower activity, I noticed frequent 10 and 12 meter
openings here at my location in Seattle, via FT8 mode.

Predicted solar flux appears lower too, with values at 82 and 83 on
October 22-23, 84 on October 24-25, 85 on October 26-29, 88 on
October 30, 85 on October 31 through November 11, 80 on November
12-20, then 85, 90, 95 and 90 on November 21-24, 88 on November
25-26, and 85 through the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 22, 5 on October 23
through November 1, 8 on November 2, 5 on November 3-5, then 12, 10
and 8 on November 6-8, 5 on November 9-13, 12 on November 14-15, 8
on November 16-18, 5 on November 19-20, 10 on November 21, 5 on
November 22-28 and 8 on November 29.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 22 - November
16 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: October 27, November 3-5,
quiet to unsettled on: October 22-24, 26, 30-31, November 9,
quiet to active on: October 25, November 1, 6, 10-13,
unsettled to active on: October (28-29,) November (2,) 7-8, 14-16,
Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.

"Solar wind will intensify on October (22, 25,) 27-31, November 1,
(8,) 9-10, (11).

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

On October 21 WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon, as well as posts on the
Western Washington DX Club email list noted strong S-9 SSB signals
on 15 meters from J5T in Guinea-Bissau.

He sent an extensive list of contacts, and said, "10, 12 and 15
meters have sounded like 20 meter phone for the past month, and not
listed are many 10 and 12 meter QSOs on SSB to South America and the
Pacific that I haven't included.

"Antennas all home made: 10 meter 4el Yagi at 30 feet and dual band
12/15 Moxon at 23 feet, on 17 I use my 15/12 Moxon loaded. All QSOs
use 400 to 500 watts with home made LDMOS amp and K3S."

A short list of a few of his contacts, all times in UTC:

2021-10-19 1517 FY5KE 10m 28.019 CW French Guiana
2021-10-18 0032 3D2AG 12m 24.907 CW Fiji
2021-10-18 0016 3D2AG 10m 28.029 CW Fiji
2021-10-17 2143 E51JD 10m 28.430 SSB South Cook Islands

Notes:
FY5KE - I hear him every week on 10 CW or 10 SSB since Sept 2021.
3D2AG - Antoine and I start on 10 CW then we move to 12 CW most weekends
3D2AG - ANTOINE has been on every night for the past week on 10 and 12.
CW since mid September.
E51JD - Jim has been on every week on 10 SSB since about early September.

N0JK in Kansas wrote: "The afternoon of October 18 sporadic-E
appeared over the east coast of North America. This allowed suitably
located stations in W3 such as NZ3M to make sporadic-E TEP contacts
to Argentina.

"The Es continued after sundown.

"In eastern Kansas, I found 6 Meters wide open after returning from
dinner with my XYL at 0010 UTC October 19. I made over a dozen FT8
contacts to W1, W2, W3, W4 and VE3. Best DX was WW1L in FN54 at over
1400 miles.

"Today October 21 is the peak of the Orionid Meteor Shower. I set up
portable and was able to work N0LL/P in rare grid DN80 at 1142 UTC
on 6 Meter meteor scatter using MSK144.

"Larry Lambert, N0LL is operating portable from rare grid DN80
during the Orionid Meteor shower on 6 Meters to help Fred Fish
Memorial Award (FFMA) enthusiasts log a new one.

"He had a strong sporadic-E opening on 6 Meters October 20, making
contacts from VE2 across the eastern states around 1600 UTC, then
west to California. His operation was planned to be primarily meteor
scatter, but rare October sporadic-E let many stations work a rare
grid square."

Yet another article concerning big solar activity and monster
flares:

https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/giant-solar-flare/

I like to check the STEREO mission for upcoming activity. I look out
for the big white splotchy images just over the eastern solar
horizon, which is on the left:

https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov

On October 21 Spaceweather.com noted: "A new sunspot group is
emerging over the Sun's southeastern limb. It is crackling with
activity."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 14 through 20, 2021 were 24, 11, 11, 0,
11, 11, and 11, with a mean of 11.3. 10.7 cm flux was 83.4, 84,
77.6, 77.4, 75.9, 76, and 75.9, with a mean of 78.6. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 6, 6, 10, 10, 14, and 6, with a mean of
8.4. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 3, 5, 6, 9, and 5, with a
mean of 5.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP46
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 12, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot activity and solar flux dropped this reporting week
(November 4-10), with the average daily sunspot number retreating
from 67.6 to 36.4, and solar flux from 102 to 89.1. Geomagnetic
indicators rose, average daily planetary A index from 12 to 18, and
middle latitude values from 9 to 11.7.

When the planetary and middle latitude A index were 69 and 42 on
November 4, Alaska's College A index was a whopping 131. College K
index peaked at 9 on that day. K index is logarithmic, so each point
in the scale represents a big difference in activity. The A index is
linear, and based upon the K index.

The K index is reported every three hours, and the College K index
on November 4 was 5, 5, 8, 9, 8, 5, 3 and 2. This was all caused by
what Spaceweather.com called a "Cannibal CME," because it was a CME
overtaken by a second larger and faster moving coronal mass
ejection.

At 1701 UTC on November 9 a CME eruption just over the Sun's western
horizon emitted enough energy to cause a shortwave radio blackout,
which is pictured here:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2021/09nov21/blackoutmap.jpg

Predicted solar flux is 86 on November 12, 85 on November 13-16, 84
on November 17, 83 on November 18-19, 90 on November 20, 95 on
November 21-27, 90 on November 28-29, 85 on November 30 through
December 2, 82 on December 3-4, 85 on December 5, 82 again on
December 6-9, 80 on December 10-11, 85 on December 12, and 87 on
December 13-15. Flux values may peak at around 95 on December 18-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 12-15, 8 on November
16-17, 5 on November 18-27, then 10, 10 and 8 on November 28-30, 5
on December 1-4, 8 on December 5, 5 on December 6-9, then 7, 7, 10
and 8 on December 10-13, and 5 on December 14-24.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH presents his geomagnetic activity forecast for
the period November 12 to December 1, 2021.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: 18-19, 23, 25,
quiet to unsettled on: November 12-13, 17, 20, 22, 24,
quiet to active on: November 21, 26-27,
unsettled to active on: November 14, 16, 28,
Active to disturbed: November (15, 29,) 30, December 1,

"Solar wind will intensify on November 16-17, (29-30), December
(1-2,) 3-4.

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Don't know why I had not noticed this before:

https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/10year/

Unfortunately, only one of the two spacecraft remains, but it is
still a very useful tool:

https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

N0JK wrote from Kansas:

"Good conditions on 17 meters Sunday afternoon November 7. I found
the HD8R Galapagos Island DXpedition on 18.147 MHz SSB loud with few
callers. Was able to work them easily with 5 watts and mobile whip
at 2022 UTC. Sometimes a DXpedition is easier to work on the WARC
bands."

Early on November 12, Spaceweather.com reported all is quiet for
now.

"Space weather near Earth is calm, but the Sun is not quiet. This
week, SOHO coronagraphs have observed multiple CMEs billowing over
the western edge of the Sun. The source is a farside sunspot group,
probably the same one that produced a strong M2-class solar flare on
November 9th. Earth is not in the line of fire, for now."

Another great video report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space
Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/QCXYJvSYjsc

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 4 through 10, 2021 were 28, 40, 41, 28,
41, 40, and 37, with a mean of 36.4. 10.7 cm flux was 93.8, 92.8,
82.1, 87.5, 88.3, 92, and 87.5, with a mean of 89.1. Estimated
planetary A indices were 69, 13, 18, 6, 5, 7, and 8, with a mean of
18. Middle latitude A index was 42, 9, 13, 4, 3, 6, and 5, with a
mean of 11.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP47
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 19, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

New sunspots appeared on November 14 and 16, but solar activity was
lower and geomagnetic activity as well.

More recently, over November 16-18 the total sunspot area declined
from 330, to 270 to only 40 millionths of a hemisphere, the lowest
observed recently.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 36.4 last week to 30.9
in the recent reporting week, November 11-17.

Solar flux averages were off as well, to 80.8 this week compared to
89.1 in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP046.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 18 to 7, and average
middle latitude numbers went from 11.7 to 4.9. Middle latitude A
index daily average went all the way down to 0 on November 13.

We see no high numbers in the solar flux prediction, which has 80 on
November 19-20, 82 on November 21-23, 86 on November 24-26, 85 on
November 27, 83 on November 28-29, 85 on November 30 through
December 2, 82 on December 3-11, then 79, 80 and 79 on December
12-14, then 78, 77, 79 and 81 on December 15-18, 83 on December
19-21, and 85 on December 22-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12. 15 and 8 on November 19-22, 5
on November 23-27, then 10, 10 and 8 on November 28-30, 5 on
December 1-12, 12 on December 13-14, and back to 5 on December
15-24, then 10 on December 25-26.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 19 to December
15, 2021 from OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: 21, 24, December 5, 10, 12,
quiet to unsettled on: November 19-20, 22-23, 25, December 9, 11,
quiet to active on: November 28-30, December 2, 6, 8,
unsettled to active on: November 26-27, December 3-4, 7, 15,
Active to disturbed: December 1, (13-14),

"Solar wind will intensify on November (29-30), December (1,) 2-4,
14-15.

"Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- An important notice will be issued next Thursday, i.e., November 25."

WB8VLC reported from Salem, Oregon:

"On Nov 13 on 10 meter CW at 2236 UTC I came across a loud CW
station calling CQ, Nick, VK9DX on Norfolk Island.

"After the usual reports and such of which Nick was a true 589 on
CW, I listened to Nick for another 10 minutes calling CQ on 10
meters after which he stopped after a couple more lucky hams caught
him.

"On a guess I checked out 12 and 15 meters to see if maybe the VK9
would end up on one of these bands, and sure enough at 2307 UTC I
found VK9DX finishing a QSO on 12 meter SSB with a real 58-9 signal
and then we had a nice 10 minute or so SSB chat.

"Nick runs a vertical dipole and nothing fancy antenna or power wise
except for what looks to be a great take-off shot to North America
which accounted for his true 589 on 10 CW and 58-9 on 12 SSB.

"After 12 meters faded out, I went to 15 meters to see if he moved
there but he wasn't to be found; however, I did find Stuie, VK8NSB
in Darwin Australia calling CQ on CW with a great 589 signal into
Oregon."

Somehow, I missed this, but a few weeks ago KB1DK reported from
Trumbull, Connecticut on November 1:

"Here is my report for the 2021 CQWW SSB Contest:

"After enjoying wide open band conditions on 15 meters Saturday, we
experienced a solid 2 hour opening on 10 meters to CQ zones 14, 15,
and 20 on Sunday morning starting at 1430 UTC here in Connecticut
(FN31). I was able to log 108 contacts using just an inverted vee.
Almost all signals were S8 and above, and the band was full of
activity between 28.300 and 28.750. There was minimal fading during
the opening and most of the stations were heard during the entire 2
hour period. It was great to hear the words 'thanks for the fifth
band' being exchanged on more than one occasion.

"The only countries not heard were the Scandinavians, although I
worked OX7A on a random visit to 10 meters on Saturday at 1620 UTC.
The longest distances worked were to Greece and Israel. The best
part of the contest weekend were the conditions on 10, 15 and 40
meters and working 4 stations on all 5 bands."

ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend, a very big and popular
domestic radio contest. Check http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for
details.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 11 through 17, 2021 were 39, 39, 24,
23, 23, 35, and 33, with a mean of 30.9. 10.7 cm flux was 84.5,
82.9, 81, 78.7, 79.3, 80.1, and 79.2, with a mean of 80.8. Estimated
planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 9, 13, and 12, with a mean of
7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 0, 2, 6, 11, and 9, with a mean
of 4.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP50
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50 ARLP050
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 10, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

One new sunspot group appeared on December 4, but four days later it
was gone, and on Thursday, December 9 we saw the second day with no
sunspots.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 46.1 to 24.6. Average
daily solar flux went from 90.9 to 82.6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month does not seem promising.
The December 9 forecast shows 77 on December 10, 80 on December
11-14, 82 on December 15, 84 on December 16-17, 85 on December 18,
87 on December 19-22, 86 on December 23-27, 84 on December 28, 82 on
December 29 through January 2, 80 on January 3-5, 82 on January 6-8,
80 on January 9-10, 82 on January 11, 85 on January 12-14 and 87 on
January 15-18.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 10 and 8 on December 10-13, 8
on December 13-14, 5 on December 14-15, then 10, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on
December 16-20, 5 on December 21-26, then 15, 18 and 12 on December
27-29, 8 on December 30 through January 3, 5 on January 4-5, then
10, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on January 6-10, 5 on January 11-12, then 15,
12, 10 and 8 on January 13-16, and 5 on January 17-22.

From OK1HH:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, December 9, 2021.

"(Created as a continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity
predictions, published since 1978.)

"The only sunspot group on solar disk No. 2904, in which we observed
three spots (=> R = 13) on December 7, was calm and decayed to
plage. Thus, R = 0 applies since December 8, so we register a
minimum within the quasi-periodic twenty-seven-day fluctuation. At
the same time, the solar wind has weakened, the geomagnetic field
has calmed down and consequently result are the lowest values of
f0F2. However, the decreasing length of sunshine in the Earth's
northern hemisphere also contributes to it.

"In the remaining weeks until the end of the year, we can expect a
gradual rise in solar activity to the level of the end of November,
an irregular alternation of the Earth's magnetic field between quiet
and unsettled, and a gradual rise in daily f0F2 values just slightly
above average.

"F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU"

This weekend is the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest! Solar flux should
be rising a modest amount during the event. Debris from asteroid
Phaethon could possibly enhance propagation on 10 meters during the
Geminids meteor shower, peaking on December 13. See http://www.ARRL.org/10-meter for contest details.

N0JK reported on Wednesday from Kansas, "The Geminids Meteor shower
is predicted to peak December 13-14. Already meteor rates are
picking up.

"I was able to work NJ0W/R in grid DN82 on 50 MHz meteor scatter
using the MSK144 mode on December 7, at 0330 UTC. Dave, NJ0W made
other meteor scatter contacts as well. DN82 is considered a rare
grid for the FFMA (Fred Fish Memorial Award) on 6 Meters."

The FFMA will be awarded to anyone working all North America grid
squares on 6 meters. So far Fred Fish is the only ham who has done
this.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 2 through 8, 2021 were 45, 29, 35, 36,
14, 13, and 0, with a mean of 24.6. 10.7 cm flux was 86.6, 85.3,
88.1, 82.7, 80, 78.9, and 76.9, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated
planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of
7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 3, and 4, with a
mean of 5.3.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP52
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 28, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was way up this week, and it was reflected in on-air
activity, especially on 10 meters. If only the ARRL 10 Meter Contest
were held a week later!

Average daily sunspot number jumped 100 points, from 24.4 last week
to 124.4 in the current reporting week, December 16-22.

Average daily solar flux increased from 82.9 to 125.

Average planetary A index went from 5 to 9.1, and average middle
latitude A index from 3.9 to 6.4.

It was great looking at Spaceweather.com every day and seeing the
Sun covered with spots.

Predicted solar flux over the next week looks quite promising, with
daily solar flux over 100 until the end of the year, then rising
above 100 on January 16-22, 2022. But the outlook issued on
Thursday, December 23 wasn't as optimistic as the one issued the
previous day.

Flux values are predicted at 130, 125, 120, 115 and 113 on December
24-28, then 110 on December 29-30, 85 on December 31, 2021, then 83,
81, 80 and 81 on January 1-4, 2022, 82 on January 5-6, then 83, 86,
90 and 92 on January 7-10, 95 on January 11-12, 96 on January 13-15,
then jumping up to 115 on January 16-17, then 114, 111 and 110 on
January 18-20, 108, 102 and 95 on January 21-23, then 90, 88, 87 and
85 on January 24-27, then dropping to a low of 80 on January 30
before rising above 90 after the first week in February.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 16, 8, 10 and 12 on December
24-29, 8 on December 30-31, 2021, then 5 on January 1-8, 2022, then
8 and 5 on January 9-10, 10 on January 11-12, 5 on January 13-14,
then 8, 12, 18, 12 and 8 on January 15-19, 5 on January 20-22, then
8, 10, 8 and 8 on January 23-26, and 5 on January 27 through
February 4.

These observations from J.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Unlike meteorologists, for example, we do not have reliable models
of the Sun's behavior and subsequent changes in the Earth's
magnetosphere and atmosphere. Therefore, we did not expect the
current increase in activity. On the other hand, we can consider
them as another promise of a higher maximum of the 25th cycle.

"Most spots are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, M-class
flares are observed in both hemispheres, the solar flux has climbed
from the minimum to the highest values in two weeks and the speed of
the solar wind remaining increased in ten days.

"Geomagnetic activity increased relatively only slightly, only after
the spot activity moved to the western half of the solar disk. These
changes were mostly favorable for the changes in the shortwave
propagation conditions. Before the beginning of the ascent, as
shortest the 18 MHz band was regularly opened for the DX contacts,
while in last days the 21 MHz band is opened relatively reliably.

"As a result of the eruptions of previous days, the Earth's magnetic
field activity should increase around December 24th and then
probably again on 27th.

"Before the end of the year, there will return a significant
decrease in solar activity. Its next growth is expected around
mid-January."

Thanks to KH6CP for this tip on the new WindCube satellite:

https://bit.ly/3yWtVPH

W9NY wrote from Chicago:

"Even though conditions were disappointing for most of the ARRL 10
Meter Contest weekend, there were sporadic openings all over the
United States from my Dune Acres location and for a few minutes at a
time signals from both the Colorado and California areas were very
strong. I also worked a number of stations in South America, but
only Puerto Rico in the Caribbean.

"On Sunday 12/19/21 10 meters really opened up for a while. I first
heard a W6 beacon in the morning coming in S9 and not a signal on
the band. After one CQ at 28.420 I started a long string of
contacts in the late morning, and again mid-afternoon. Some West
coast stations running just 100 watts to dipoles were coming in 20
over S9 - just like the good old days.

"Made some contacts on 12 meters too. I heard NOTHING on 6 meters.

"I am looking forward to 10 meters using my MFJ loop from Miami
Beach the 1st 3 months of 2022."

KA3JAW monitors 11 meters for sporadic-E. On December 23 he wrote:

"Wednesday, December 22, 2021 there was a six-hour multi-hop
transatlantic sporadic-E event into western Europe on the 11 meter
band from 1326-1929 UTC.

"Solar flux index hit its highest point in the current solar cycle
at 140. This was due to 9 sunspot groups; 2907, 2908, 2909, 2911,
2912, 2915, 2916, 2917, and 2918."

He also wrote:

"Sunday, December 19, 2021 was a crazy eight hour single and
multi-hop sporadic-E day on the 11 meter band from 11:23 AM till
7:37 PM EST; 1623 UTC December 19th - 0037 UTC December 20th.

"During noontime, western Canada prairie provinces plus US west
coast stations were rolling into the US northeast region.

"From 5:22 PM to 6:20 PM Es conditions were deteriorating with
increased background noise conditions until the last station from
Golden Valley, Arizona was heard at 7:37 PM.

"Seems that the secondary sporadic-E winter season has begun."

On December 19, Steve Sacco (who did not give a call sign) wrote,
regarding 10 meters:

"I've never seen so many KL7s on at once. So far, have worked two,
plus VE8CK and VY1FC.

"PSKR showing the band open from my location to Europe and KL7 and
JA and VK at 2215 UTC on 12/19/2021. JA3REX worked at 2217 UTC.

"If only this happened LAST weekend!"

N0JK wrote:

"I was on 6M MSK144 the morning of December 14 at the peak of the
Geminids Meteor shower. 50.260 MHz was busy. Worked WI9WI, WG0G and
KF0Y in rare grid DN92 around 1400 UTC. All random contacts.

"Also checked 50.245 for W5A (EL15). Some flickers on the screen,
but no decodes."

W8TJM of Liberty Lake, Washington commented on his December 19
activity on 15 meters:

"As soon as I got my 15 meter half-wave vertical antenna up at my
low-noise site at 1915 UTC, I worked OH6RM in Finland. He was S5-S7
with very little QSB and we had a solid 25 minute QSO and then I
listened to his contacts off and on for another hour. I also had an
enjoyable contact with Per, SM2LIY at 1950 UTC and he was also
S5-S7, but had a very fast flutter on his signal that was
consistent. I heard no European stations."

Carl, K9LA commented:

"The paths that Toivo and Per commented on can be two different
mechanisms depending on where the US station is. I wrote about this
(called the Santa Claus Polar Path) in my monthly column on my
website back in 2014."

http://www.k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf .

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a new forecast on December 23 with a
video lasting 96 minutes:

https://youtu.be/PfPi5cYR31Q

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 16 through 22, 2021 were 127, 119, 117,
109, 115, 147, and 137, with a mean of 124.4. 10.7 cm flux was
117.9, 120.9, 121.3, 115.3, 122.7, 136.6, and 140.4, with a mean of
125. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 4, 12, 16, 10, and 11,
with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 2, 2, 8, 13, 7,
and 8, with a mean of 6.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053
ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP53
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 3, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP053
ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot activity persisted this week, although the numbers were a
little lower. Average daily sunspot number declined from 124.4 to
110.1. Average daily solar flux slipped just slightly from 125 to
124.

Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 6.4, and average
middle latitude numbers changed from 6.4 to 4.4.

New sunspot groups appeared on December 25, 26 and 28.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is expected to peak at 130
on January 18 and 19, and the numbers are 100 on December 31, 2021,
100 on January 1 and 2, 2022, 98, 95 and 95 on January 3 to 5, then
90, 92 and 100 on January 6 to 8, 105 and 110 on January 9 and 10,
115 on January 11 to 13, 118 on January 14 and 15, then 122 and 128
on January 16 and 17, 130 on January 18 and 19, then 128, 125 and
120 on January 20 to 22, 125 on January 23 and 24, 122 on January
25, 120 on January 26 and 27, then 115, 110, 100 and 95 on January
28 to 31, 90 on February 1 and 2, 92 and 100 on February 3 and 4,
105 and 110 on February 5 and 6, and 115 on February 7 to 9.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12 and 8 on December 31, 2021
through January 3, 2022, 5 on January 4 to 10, 10 on January 11 and
12, 5 on January 13 and 14, then 8 and 12 on January 15 and 16, 8 on
January 17 and 18, 5 on January 19 to 22, then 8, 10, 8 and 8 on
January 23 to 26, then 5 on January 27 through February 6 and 8 on
February 7 and 8.

From OK1HH:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, December 30, 2021 (Continuation of Earth's magnetic
field activity predictions, published between 1978 and 2021.)

Solar activity was a little more vivid than we expected. Both spot
and flare activity predominated in the southern hemisphere, while
small coronal holes were observed mostly in the northern hemisphere.

This corresponded well with the irregular occurrences of the
slightly increased activity of the Earth's magnetic field, thus also
the irregularities in the daily course of the ionosphere parameters.

The surprise came after the increase in proton density in the solar
wind in the evening of December 29, where only a relatively small
increase in its group velocity was observed. The result in the
ionosphere was higher critical frequencies in the F2 layer in the
middle of the night and an increased occurrence of scattering and
extended reflections, especially on the morning of December 30."

Mike, KM0T in NW Iowa (EM13) wrote early on December 29 about 6
meters:

"Watching spaceweather.com for a few days, they predicted a few M
class flares hitting, but it seemed to have missed us. But I also
noticed that the flux was around 140 and knowing that a slight
disturbance could skew things the right way, I was somewhat aware of
things.

Then I saw TEP-Chordal stuff happening on the 26th to ZL/VK, which
did not really surprise me thinking we got a few glancing blows from
the flares perhaps. However did not see many if any Midwest reports
so I sort of ignored it.

The next day I saw it again, but was busy. Then saw an email from
W7XU (Arliss in South Dakota) saying ZL was in. Sure enough turned
the radio on and got decodes from ZL7DX. It appeared that there was
an Es link in the Midwest to DM43 / XE area that was getting into
the TEP-Chordal hops. I believe ZL7 was working a few XEs on FT8,
so I found one decode and moved my tx up in freq, started calling
-17 report. He came back a few minutes later with -20 and then my
RR73 was answered 73 in same sequence. It all happened very quickly.
Then he was gone.

Thought it was My first ZL, then I found out it was ZL7.

Not sure anyone this far north and east worked him. The stacked 6
Ele 6M yagis were as low as possible, due to recent wind storms.
Bottom one is about 24 feet, then about 20 feet higher on the mast
for the upper one. 1.5KW, no preamp, Flex-6600."

Related to this, see an article by K9LA:

https://bit.ly/3pGyScz

Grant, KZ1W wrote on the Western Washington DX Club email list on
December 29:

"N6MZ and I were separately working EU stations a couple of weeks
ago on 12m well before local sunrise. Clearly, the short path
wasn't open, and we were mystified how that can happen.

This week I am working EU on 15m, well before sunrise.

Both bands are very limited on short path with sunrise here and
sunset in EU so close together at this time of year.

I found a possible explanation in K9LA's Propagation book (CQ): When
US amateurs point antennas at central Africa, towards the magnetic
equator, the higher level of ionization there often causes signals
to be scattered. If EU points south to SW a portion of their
signals will be side scattered west. The path is optimized roughly
between 1200 and 1500 UTC and some seeking of best azimuth is worth
trying. Should work on 10m if EU is there.

With QRO, a beam, and FT8 there is enough gain to make it work. Try
it if the 40m FT8 mess is too annoying. But I did work A71AE Qatar
LP 40m this week for a new band and a Marathon count.

I've used NE aimed scattering paths on 10m open to the Caribbean,
but not to EU. Different mechanisms I think. Learn something new
all the time."

AG7N responded:

"20 has been excellent to EU about 8 to 9 a.m. local. I've been
working my good friend DF9LJ who lives close to the Danish border on
CW and SSB at 599/59 the last few days. The band closes about 9:15
a.m. local. On 40 EU has been coming in at 7:30 AM local (1530
UTC) but I've been receiving the signals LP and SP simultaneously
which makes copy difficult at moderate CW speeds."

W0PB wrote:

"On December 19 between 2032 UTC to 2035 UTC on 10 meter CW, I
worked Tord, SM3EVR and Per SM2LIY in that order. Both were 579-589
here in West Des Moines, IA. They both gave me a 559 report from my
100W and ground-mounted vertical. They disappeared ten minutes
later."

N0JK wrote:

"Some sporadic-E December 26 from Kansas to N5BO EM60 Florida. He
received me on 50.313 MHz FT8 at -21 dB. Stations along the Gulf
Coast and Texas worked New Zealand on 6 Meter FT8 with Es links to
TEP."

Jeff, N8II wrote from West Virginia on December 30:

"I worked MI0SAI and EI9HX with S9 signals on 12M SSB about 1545 UTC
today. VE2CSI in CQ zone 2 (NE QC) was S9+25 db on 10M CW via Es at
the same time. The DxMaps MUF was above 30MHz in almost all
directions from FM19 at 1700 UTC, but I only worked one station in
San Jacinto county, TX plus Reno, NV on either F2 or double hop Es.

Sunday through Wednesday I worked EU on 10M with Tuesday being the
best day. Two stations in Scotland were S9 around 1400 UTC Tuesday
including Ian, MM0TFU who always seems to be there when band is
open. He now runs 400W to a 5 el yagi.

Also, I worked MI0SAI and an OE6 on 20M SSB at 2130 UTC Wednesday
about 25 minutes before my sunset and many hours past EU sunset with
possible Es aid."

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 23 through 29, 2021 were 143, 145, 117,
95, 85, 107, and 79, with a mean of 110.1. 10.7 cm flux was 129.8,
126.2, 130.7, 125.4, 123.9, 120.5, and 111.4, with a mean of 124.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 3, 10, 9, and 7, with a
mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 5, 2, 8, 6, and 5,
with a mean of 4.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)