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ACUS03 KWNS 040723
SWODY3
SPC AC 040722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on Wednesday from
the Southeast northward to the southern Great Lakes and eastward to
the Eastern Seaboard. Other thunderstorms may develop in parts of
the Rockies. No severe threat is expected across the continental
United States Wednesday and Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low is forecast to move northward across the Ozarks
on Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves northeastward through the
central Rockies. A moist airmass will be in place from the Southeast
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. As surface temperatures heat up
during the day, scattered thunderstorm development will occur across
much of the southeastern third of the nation. However, instability
and shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 10/04/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 050726
SWODY3
SPC AC 050725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will be likely on Thursday from parts of the
Southeast northward into the southern Great Lakes. Additional
thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Intermountain West
to the northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected Thursday
or Thursday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the
mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be in place from the Southeast northward into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
across parts of the eastern U.S. as surface temperatures warm during
the day. Instability should remain weak limiting any potential for
severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be
possible from parts of the Intermountain West to the northern High
Plains. This activity is also expected to remain sub-severe.

..Broyles.. 10/05/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 060729
SWODY3
SPC AC 060728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal hail threat is expected to develop across parts of the
northern Plains from Friday afternoon into the early overnight
period.

...Northern Plains...
A fast moving upper-level trough will move across the Desert
Southwest and Friday and reach the central Rockies Friday night. As
the upper-level trough approaches, moisture advection will be
maintained across the north-central states. Surface dewpoints are
forecast to reach the upper 50s and lower 60s F across the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota by late afternoon, where moderate instability
is forecast to develop. Thunderstorm development will first be
likely in the western Dakotas early Friday evening with this
convection moving eastward across the Dakotas during the mid to late
evening. Thunderstorms may also affect western Minnesota during the
overnight period. Forecast soundings during the evening in the
central and eastern Dakota show a capping inversion in place but
have a substantial amount of instability above the cap. MUCAPE is
forecast to reach the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with
effective shear of 30 to 40 kt along with steep mid-level lapse
rates could be sufficient for hail with the stronger updrafts. A
marginal risk has been added for a hail threat mainly during the
evening and early overnight period on Friday.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 061220
SWODY3
SPC AC 061219

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR COLOR-FILL ERROR

...SUMMARY...
A marginal hail threat is expected to develop across parts of the
northern Plains from Friday afternoon into the early overnight
period.

...Northern Plains...
A fast moving upper-level trough will move across the Desert
Southwest and Friday and reach the central Rockies Friday night. As
the upper-level trough approaches, moisture advection will be
maintained across the north-central states. Surface dewpoints are
forecast to reach the upper 50s and lower 60s F across the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota by late afternoon, where moderate instability
is forecast to develop. Thunderstorm development will first be
likely in the western Dakotas early Friday evening with this
convection moving eastward across the Dakotas during the mid to late
evening. Thunderstorms may also affect western Minnesota during the
overnight period. Forecast soundings during the evening in the
central and eastern Dakota show a capping inversion in place but
have a substantial amount of instability above the cap. MUCAPE is
forecast to reach the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with
effective shear of 30 to 40 kt along with steep mid-level lapse
rates could be sufficient for hail with the stronger updrafts. A
marginal risk has been added for a hail threat mainly during the
evening and early overnight period on Friday.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 070721
SWODY3
SPC AC 070721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible in parts of the northern Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley on Saturday.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across the central
U.S. on Saturday as an upper-level trough digs southeastward into
the Desert Southwest. In the north-central U.S., a shortwave trough
will become more amplified. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and
central Nebraska. Southeast of the front, surface dewpoints should
be in the lower to mid 60s, contributing to weak destabilization
during the day. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop along parts
of the front with these storms moving east-northeastward across
eastern parts of the northern Plains and into the upper Mississippi
Valley.

Forecast soundings by late afternoon just ahead of the front in
western Minnesota have MLCAPE around 1200 J/kg with 0-6 km shear
near 35 kt suggesting that a severe threat will be possible late
Saturday afternoon. Cells that initiate in areas that have the
greatest amount of instability may obtain an isolated wind-damage
and hail threat in the late afternoon and early evening. However,
many factors will impact the severe potential including the timing
of the shortwave trough, the amount of destabilization and favored
storm type. These uncertainties suggest that a marginal risk is
appropriate for Saturday and Saturday night. If the model solutions
become in better agreement concerning the spatial extent of
convection and instability, then a slight risk could need to be
added in later outlooks.

..Broyles.. 10/07/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 080734
SWODY3
SPC AC 080732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are forecast from Sunday afternoon onward
across portions of the southern Plains and vicinity, with large
hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes possible.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the Plains,
ahead of a second trough progged to dig southeastward into
northwestern U.S. during the second half of the period. A surface
cold front will accompany both troughs, one advancing across the
southern Plains and middle/upper Mississippi Valley, while the
second surges southeastward across the Intermountain West through
the period.

...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas to western Arkansas and
vicinity...
A cold front sweeping across western portions of the southern Plains
early in the period will likely reach central Oklahoma/western North
Texas during the afternoon, as northward advection of mid to upper
60s dewpoints combines with daytime heating to yield an axis of
moderate warm-sector CAPE ahead of the front. As a frontal low
develops over Oklahoma in response to focused ascent provided by
short-wave troughing taking on increasingly negative tilt with time, thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon, from central
Oklahoma into North Texas.

Aided by increasing/veering flow with height, shear supportive of
updraft rotation suggests that initial storms will quickly become
supercells, with large hail and locally damaging winds expected. A
couple of tornadoes may also occur, though rather quick
upscale/linear growth is expected into early evening as storms
spread quickly eastward across eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas.
Risk for hail and damaging winds will likely continue into the
evening hours, before waning overnight.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region...
As an upper low/short-wave trough -- embedded in broader cyclonic
flow over the central U.S. -- shifts northeastward across the
north-central states and eventually into western Ontario, ongoing
showers and thunderstorms at the start of the period should likewise
spread northeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley and western
portions of the Upper Great Lakes region.

With steep lapse rates aloft, CAPE will likely be sufficient at
least locally to support occasionally stronger storms, given
deep-layer flow sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts. As
such, potential for hail is evident, which may locally reach severe
levels through the first half of the period, before storms spread
largely into Ontario during the evening hours.

..Goss.. 10/08/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 090730
SWODY3
SPC AC 090729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TO LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms -- including potential for hail,
locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- are expected to
spread from the Mid Mississippi Valley region early,
north-northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes into the
evening/overnight hours Sunday and into early Monday.

...Synopsis...
Western U.S. troughing will continue to dig south-southeastward
Sunday, eventually evolving into a closed low surrounded by cyclonic
flow which should encompass the entire Intermountain West by the end
of the period. Ahead of this digging system, a negatively tilted
short-wave trough will eject north-northeastward across the Mid
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, and into the Upper Great Lakes
overnight.

At the surface, a cold front ahead of the western trough will cross
the Great Basin/northern Intermountain region during the first half
of the period, reaching a position from the northern Plains to the
Four Corners states by the end of the period.

Farther east, a frontal wave will shift north-northeastward from
Missouri to Wisconsin, while the cold front makes only minor
eastward progress through the period.

...Lower Ohio/Mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to Lower
Michigan...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across the
Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley area at the start of the
period, with local severe risk possibly accompanying a few of the
stronger updrafts. As the upper trough sweeps north-northeastward
in an increasingly negatively tilted manner through the day, and a
surface frontal wave moves across Missouri to northern Illinois,
surface heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of ongoing
convection through late morning should allow ample destabilization
to foster redevelopment/reintensification of convection ahead of the
low/front.

Given strong flow with height ahead of the upper system, veering
gradually through mid levels, shear will support updraft rotation,
resulting in scattered strong/severe storms capable of producing all
severe hazards. Risk should gradually spread northward, across the
Midwest and extending into lower Michigan through the evening and
into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 10/09/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 100732
SWODY3
SPC AC 100731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening/overnight across a
region focused on the central Plains, where an all-hazards severe
risk is anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted short-wave trough initially over the Upper Great
Lakes region early Tuesday is progged to shift into Canada through
the day, ahead of a deep/progressive western U.S. upper low. This
low is expected to move east-northeastward across the Four
Corners/central and southern Rockies through the afternoon, and then
into the Great Plains overnight. This low will be accompanied by a
very strong deep-layer wind field, including a 100 kt mid-level jet
streak that will shift out of the southern Rockies into the central
Plains during the latter half of the period.

At the surface, a deepening low is forecast to be shifting across
northeastern Colorado during the afternoon, with a sharp/trailing
cold front crossing the central and southern High Plains by early
evening. By the end of the period Wednesday morning, expect an
occluded low to reach the northwestern Nebraska/southwestern South
Dakota vicinity, with a cold front arcing from eastern Nebraska
southward across eastern Kansas, and then southwestward across
central Oklahoma to southwestern Texas. Elsewhere, high pressure
will prevail over both the eastern and western flanks of the
country.

...Central Plains into Oklahoma and parts of northwestern Texas...
Rapid northward theta-e advection will be ongoing through the first
half of the period across the southern and central Plains, ahead of
a potent upper system and associated/deepening surface low advancing
across the Rockies toward the Plains states. A rather late arrival
of the system into the Plains -- with respect to the diurnal cycle
-- appears to be a limiting factor with respect to severe potential,
while otherwise the rapidly evolving scenario appears likely to
become favorable for a primarily after-sunset severe weather event
focused on the central Plains region.

As the front moves across the High Plains during the late
afternoon/early evening, a moistening/destabilizing environment from
western Nebraska across western Kansas will likely support
initiation of initially isolated supercell storms. With time,
convection will likely grow upscale linearly, in response to strong
forcing focused along the surface cold front, and expanding
southward with time across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas.

Very strong flow aloft will support an all-hazards severe risk, with
initial risk that will include large hail and a few tornadoes likely
evolving with time to include increasingly widespread damaging-wind
potential. Risk will likely continue through the overnight hours,
as the powerful system advances across the central Plains vicinity
through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 10/10/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 110721
SWODY3
SPC AC 110720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms spreading across portions of the Midwest and into the
Upper Great Lakes may locally pose limited severe risk Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low is forecast to move northeastward across the
northern Plains Wednesday, in tandem with a gradually
filling/occluded surface low. As the system advances northeastward,
the occluded/warm frontal zone will shift northeastward into/across
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region, while the
cold front shifts eastward and weakens through the day. Eventually,
the trailing portion of the front is expected to begin returning
northward as a warm front across the southern-central U.S. through
the latter half of the period.

...Parts of the Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period
from the northern Plains southeastward to the Mid Mississippi
Valley, and then southwestward into the southern Plains, in the
vicinity of boundaries associated with a deeply occluded low progged
to be shifting northeastward across South Dakota early in the
period. Convection will continue through the day, with limited
severe risk possibly evolving by afternoon in the vicinity of the
triple point, expected to shift across Iowa and into Wisconsin
through the afternoon. While modest instability is expected, which
should act as a substantial limiter with respect to severe
potential, favorably strong/veering flow with height will exist
across a broad area. This supports inclusion of 5%/MRGL risk --
which could include any of the severe hazards -- across portions of
the Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes for the afternoon and
evening time frame.

..Goss.. 10/11/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 120722
SWODY3
SPC AC 120722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather risk appears low across the CONUS on Thursday.

...Discussion...
As a closed upper low and associated/occluded surface system shift
northward into Canada early in the period, large-scale
troughing/cyclonic flow aloft -- initially encompassing the entire
western half of the U.S. -- will progress slowly eastward,
eventually reaching the Great Plains.

As the upper system slowly advances, a weak surface low over the
southern High Plains will evolve along trailing portions of a
remnant cold front extending initially from the Upper Great Lakes to
West Texas. The low is progged to shift northeastward along the
front through the second half of the period, reaching the Mid
Mississippi Valley late, while the trailing front then advances
across the southern Plains through Friday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast along this frontal zone --
from Texas northeastward to the Great Lakes -- through the period.
Generally weak instability/poor lapse rates aloft will hinder
convective intensity in most areas, though a few stronger storms
will be possible locally. Still, confidence in any appreciable
concentration of stronger storms in any one area is low, and thus no
risk areas will be introduced at this time.

..Goss.. 10/12/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 130725
SWODY3
SPC AC 130724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for isolated instances of severe weather may evolve within a
zone of thunderstorms stretching from the Lower Great Lakes
southwestward to the Mid Mississippi Friday afternoon and evening.
Locally damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary risk.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough crossing the Great Plains region during the day
Friday will eventually cross the Upper and Middle Mississippi
Valley, reaching a position stretching from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Mississippi Delta region Saturday
morning. Meanwhile, broad ridges will flank the trough, both west
and east, as it progresses across the central CONUS.

At the surface, a low initially over the Illinois vicinity is
forecast to develop/shift northeastward, entering Canada and
reaching the Ottawa River Valley overnight. Trailing from the low,
a sharpening cold front will advance quickly across the Mid
Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys and southern Plains through the
day, and then continue eastward to reach the west slopes of the
Appalachians by the end of the period. Meanwhile, high pressure
will prevail across the western half of the country through the
period.

...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mid Mississippi
Valley...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at
the start of the period, from the Lower Great Lakes region
southwestward to eastern portions of Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas early in
the period. This ongoing precipitation and associated cloud cover
-- continuing through the day -- will act to limit warm-sector
destabilization.

As such, the thermodynamic environment is expected to be a limiting
factor with respect to widespread/robust afternoon and evening
convection. Therefore, degree of severe potential remains
questionable despite favorably strong/increasing deep-layer wind
field with time. At this time, it appears that a gradual ramp-up in
convective intensity near and ahead of the front will occur, with
the greatest risk for local severe weather -- likely in the form of gusty/damaging winds -- to extend from the Mid Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys into the Lower Great Lakes region, primarily during the
afternoon and evening hours. With coverage of risk in question,
will introduce only 5%/MRGL risk at this time.

..Goss.. 10/13/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 140700
SWODY3
SPC AC 140659

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for a few wind gusts near severe levels will exist across
portions of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong upper trough is forecast to progress into/across
the eastern U.S. Saturday, while ridging/anticyclonic flow prevails
across the remainder of the U.S. in the wake of the trough.

At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachian crest
early in the period, and advance steadily eastward toward -- and
then off -- the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts through the
afternoon. By the end of the period, the front will likely have
cleared all but far south Florida and the Keys, leaving high
pressure to prevail across most of the rest of the CONUS through the
period.

...Portions of New England southward into the central Appalachians
and portions of the Middle Atlantic region...
As the cold front shifts to the lee of the Appalachian Crest early
in the day Saturday, a north-south frontal band of low-topped
convection should gradually evolve, within a minimally unstable but
favorably sheared environment. Convection may eventually extend
southward across the Southeast, but the strongest ascent -- and
strongest deep-layer flow -- will focus across northeastern areas,
where a MRGL risk is being introduced. While gusts should remain
largely sub-severe, minor damage will be possible near stronger
updrafts/more intense portions of the convective band. Risk should
diminish gradually through the evening, as the already minimal
instability diminishes further.

..Goss.. 10/14/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 150726
SWODY3
SPC AC 150726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

...Discussion...
An upper trough/low is progged to linger over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S., with surrounding cyclonic flow to encompass most
of the eastern half of the country. With the surface cold front
associated with this system largely offshore -- lingering only
across South Florida during the first half of the period -- the only appreciable inland thunder potential in the East will be near this
remnant Florida portion of the front.

Meanwhile in the West, a sharp/short-wavelength trough will
gradually progress onshore/inland. Cooler air aloft associated with
this feature will support showers -- and possibly a couple of
lightning strikes. At this time however, lightning coverage appears
likely to remain low, thus precluding introduction of a 10% thunder
area.

..Goss.. 10/15/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 160719
SWODY3
SPC AC 160718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Monday.

...Discussion...
An upper low centered over Quebec will drift slowly southeastward
with time, wile surrounding cyclonic flow lingers across the eastern
states. In the West, an upper low is progged to deepen as it shifts
eastward across the Intermountain region, reaching the Wyoming
vicinity overnight.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail over much of the East,
while a cold front moves across the Intermountain West in
conjunction with the mobile upper low. Overnight, the front will
begin to emerge into the northern and central Plains region --
stretching from the Dakotas to the southern Rockies/southern High
Plains by Tuesday morning.

As this upper low and associated surface system shift steadily
eastward, cooling/steepening lapse rates aloft will provide modest destabilization, supporting development of low-topped convection,
including potential for sporadic lightning. Elsewhere,
thunderstorms are not expected.

..Goss.. 10/16/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 170634
SWODY3
SPC AC 170633

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
A large upper low centered over the St. Lawrence Valley will
continue moving slowly eastward, gradually vacating the northeastern
U.S. with time. Meanwhile, a second low initially progged over the
Wyoming vicinity will continue progressing east-northeastward,
moving into the central and northern Plains with time. Finally, a
third upper trough is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest Coast
vicinity by Wednesday morning.

At the surface, high pressure will continue to prevail east of the
Mississippi River. Meanwhile, a cold front -- progressing in tandem
with the central U.S. upper low -- will move into/across the central
Plains region.

Showers -- and potential for a few lightning strikes -- are expected
across an area centered over South Dakota, in conjunction with the
advancing upper low. Some potential for a couple of strikes may
also occur over far south Florida, and the Keys, and also potential
near the coastal Louisiana area. In all areas however, severe
weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 10/17/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 180713
SWODY3
SPC AC 180712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.

...Discussion...
A negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to cross the Pacific
Northwest Wednesday, shifting into western Canada with time and
leaving a broad area of ridging to prevail over the western half of
the country. Meanwhile, an upper low initially progged over South Dakota/Nebraska will move eastward, crossing the Mississippi Valley
and moving into the Midwest overnight. Downstream, ridging will
prevail, as the last remnants of cyclonic flow finally vacate New
England.

At the surface, the primary feature will be a low progged to shift
across the Upper Midwest, and its trailing cold front that should
reach a position from the Middle Ohio Valley to coastal southeastern
Texas by Thursday morning.

Showers and scattered to isolated, mainly elevated thunderstorms
will accompany the advance of this surface system, and its parent
upper low. A this time, it appears that instability near and ahead
of the front will be generally modest, above a
likely-to-remain-stable boundary layer. As such, while small hail
will be possible with stronger storms crossing the Mid Mississippi
Valley vicinity during the period, any potential for hail
approaching severe levels appears too low to warrant consideration
of a risk area.

..Goss.. 10/18/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 190712
SWODY3
SPC AC 190711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms with gusty winds will be possible from eastern
Ohio into western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia Thursday.
A few storms capable of marginally severe hail might occur late
Thursday night over southern Oklahoma.

...Eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania...

Limited low-level moisture return will occur Thursday with a narrow
corridor of mid 50s dewpoints from OH into western PA. Forcing for
ascent accompanying a progressive shortwave trough and its attendant
cold front will move through the OH Valley during the day.
Low-topped convection is expected to develop within narrow corridor
of weak instability along and just ahead of the front. Activity
will be embedded within strong unidirectional southwesterly winds.
Potential will exist for higher momentum air to be transported to
the surface within some of the rain cores during the afternoon.
Overall threat should remain limited by the anticipated marginal
thermodynamic environment.

...Southern Oklahoma...

A cold front is expected to stall in vicinity of the OK/TX border.
Partially modified Gulf air will return northward beneath 7 C/km
mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate instability with up to
1500 J/kg MUCAPE from northwest TX into southern OK. Modest
isentropic ascent north of this boundary may contribute to the
development of a few thunderstorms very late in the period, and some
of these updrafts might become capable of producing a few instances
of hail.

..Dial.. 10/19/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 200659
SWODY3
SPC AC 200658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected across the U.S. mainland
Friday.

...Discussion...

A few elevated thunderstorms will be possible within a weak warm
advection regime both Friday morning and again later Friday night
primarily across OK into southeast KS. Other than a low-end risk for
small to marginally severe hail, no severe weather is expected.

Other thunderstorms are possible along a cold front, mainly across
eastern NC during the day, but severe weather is unlikely.

..Dial.. 10/20/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 210718
SWODY3
SPC AC 210717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms may pose a risk for mainly isolated large hail Saturday
evening/night, primarily across a portion of the central Plains.

...Central Plains region...

Models are trending toward better agreement and have demonstrated
some run-to-run consistency regarding the evolution of a
southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to amplify as it
approaches the southern and central High Plains late Saturday night.
However, some model differences still persist especially regarding
the amplitude of this feature. Preceding this impulse, a
strengthening southerly low-level jet east of an evolving lee
surface low will foster the advection of partially modified Gulf air
northward through the southern and central Plains. By Saturday
evening this low will be situated across western KS with a dryline
southward through western TX. A warm front will extend east from the
low through central or northern KS and into southwest MO.
Destabilization associated with low-level theta-e advection beneath
plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate
instability across KS overnight. Increasing isentropic ascent north
of the warm front promoted by the low-level jet should contribute to development of elevated storms across northern KS and adjacent areas
of southeast NE, northwest MO and southwest IA. Steep mid-level
lapse rates, moderate instability and sufficient effective bulk
shear for mid-level updraft rotation will contribute to a threat for
large hail overnight, especially before storms consolidate into an
MCS.

A conditional, somewhat greater severe threat exists for the
possibility of surface-based storm initiation along the warm front
across central/northern KS. At this time the probability of this
scenario appears low, but will be re-evaluated in day 2 updates.

...Southern Plains...

A conditional risk for a couple of strong to severe storms will
exist from western OK into northwest TX Saturday during the late
afternoon and early evening. However, relatively weak convergence
along the dryline and limited deeper forcing, along with the
likelihood of a capping inversion suggest it should be difficult to
initiate surface-based storms.

..Dial.. 10/21/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 220740
SWODY3
SPC AC 220740

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with all hazards possible are expected over a portion
of the middle Mississippi valley region Sunday afternoon and Sunday
night. A few strong to severe storms are also possible over coastal
Oregon.

...Eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into the middle Mississippi Valley
region...

A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through KS and OK during
the day, reaching the middle MS Valley later Sunday afternoon and
evening. The attendant surface low will move from northeast KS
during the morning into IL overnight. Trailing front will sweep
across KS and OK into the MS Valley, reaching the TN and OH Valleys
overnight. A warm front will extend east from the low and spread
northward through the OH Valley.

The pre-frontal warm sector is expected to become moderately
unstable supported by the northward advection of low to mid 60s F
dewpoints. Low clouds may accompany this moisture return, but some
breaks should allow for pockets of diurnal heating of the boundary
layer with MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low clouds and a
modest cap may delay storm development until mid afternoon when
storms should initiate along the cold front from eastern KS into
eastern OK. Wind profiles with up to 50 kt effective bulk shear and
sizeable low-level hodographs will support supercells. Storms may
eventually evolve into lines during the evening as they continue
through the MS and TN Valley regions. All severe hazards are
possible including potential for significant severe weather.

...Coastal Oregon...

A substantial upper trough will amplify as it approaches the west
coast accompanied by cold air aloft and steep lapse rates. This will
contribute to marginal surface-based instability, especially along
coastal OR where vertical wind profiles with strong vertical shear
will support a conditional threat for organized storms including
low-topped supercells during the late afternoon into the evening.
This region will continue to be monitored for a possible SLGT risk
in later updates.

..Dial.. 10/22/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 230722
SWODY3
SPC AC 230721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind-damage and hail are expected
across parts of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.
Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and eastern Carolinas.

...Southern and Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough and an associated 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet
will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday.
At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the western
foothills of the Appalachians. Ahead of the front, warming surface
temperatures and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F, should result
in a few pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. As low-level
convergence increases along and ahead of the front, surface-based
thunderstorm development is expected. A line of thunderstorms is
expected to organize and move eastward across the southern and
central Appalachians.

Forecast soundings at 21Z in the southern and central Appalachians
along the instability axis have moderate to strong deep-layer shear.
0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 40 to 50 knot range. This
should support isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of
producing wind damage as a line organizes during the late afternoon.
Supercells will be possible with cells that move toward areas with
moderate instability. In addition to a wind-damage threat, low-level
shear should support an isolated tornado threat. Any tornado threat
should be greatest during the early evening as a 40 to 50 knot
low-level jet strengthens. The line should persist into the early to
mid evening, crossing the Appalachian crest. The stronger segments
within the line may continue to produce isolated damaging wind gusts
during the mid to late evening.

Further north into the Mid-Atlantic, isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development is expected during the evening. As the
front approaches during the mid to late evening, thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move toward the coast. Although instability
will be weak, strong deep-layer shear may be enough for an isolated
wind-damage threat. The threat could extend as far south as the
eastern Carolinas ahead of the front during the overnight hours.

..Broyles.. 10/23/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 240716
SWODY3
SPC AC 240715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large
hail and wind damage are expected across parts of the southern and
central Plains from late Tuesday afternoon through the evening into
the overnight period.

...Southern and Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Rockies
on Tuesday as mid-level flow remains south-southwesterly across much
of the Great Plains. This will result in strong moisture advection
from north Texas into Oklahoma and Kansas, where a corridor of
moderate instability will likely develop by afternoon. A capping
inversion should hold convective initiation off until late
afternoon, when isolated thunderstorms are expected to initiate
along a dryline from west-central Texas northward into the far
eastern Texas Panhandle. As large-scale ascent associated with the
upper-level trough moves into the southern and central Plains during
the evening, storm coverage should rapidly expand. A line of storms
is forecast to become organized and move east-northeastward across north-central Texas and central Oklahoma. Additional thunderstorms
are expected to initiate during the evening from central Kansas into
southern Nebraska. All of this activity could organize into an MCS
during the evening and overnight period.

Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement concerning the
timing of the upper-level trough and distribution of instability.
MLCAPE is generally forecast to reach the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range to
the east of the dryline. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear
should be in place across parts of the southern Plains and central
Plains. This should support supercell development with cells that
remain discrete. However, a mixed mode is expected with multicells
and organized line segments possible as well. Supercells will be
capable of producing large hail and wind damage. Damaging wind gusts
and hail will also be possible with the more intense line segments.
A tornado threat may also develop across parts of the southern and
central Plains, mainly where localized conditions become favorable
and low-level shear becomes maximized. The severe threat should be
more isolated across central and eastern Nebraska because
instability should be weaker and convective initiation could occur
late.

..Broyles.. 10/24/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 250717
SWODY3
SPC AC 250716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and possibly a few
tornadoes are expected from Wednesday into Wednesday night from
parts of east and southeast Texas eastward across Louisiana to the
central Gulf Coast.

...Western and Central Gulf Coast Region...
At daybreak on Wednesday, an upper-level trough and an associated
cold front is forecast to be located across central and north Texas.
A line of thunderstorms associated with some potential for wind
damage should be ongoing ahead of the front. This convective line is
forecast to move into east and southeast Texas during the late
morning and early afternoon. Ahead of the line of storms, surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F should result in the
development of moderate instability from the central Texas Coast
northeastward into the Houston area. As instability increases some
during the afternoon, the southern end of the line is expected to
become reorganized with a squall-line developing and moving eastward
across the remainder of southeast Texas. The stronger embedded cells
within this line are expected to have a wind damage threat.
Low-level shear will also be strong and there will be potential for
a few tornadoes with supercells embedded in the line.

The northward extent of the severe threat is still somewhat in
question and will depend upon destabilization. If more instability
develops than is currently forecast, then a severe threat could
develop as far north as parts of northeast Texas and northern
Louisiana. This outlook keeps that area at a Marginal Risk for now
due to uncertainty.

The line of strong to severe storms is expected to continue moving
eastward across southern and central Louisiana during the evening,
reaching the central Gulf Coast sometime after midnight. A
wind-damage threat is forecast with this line but uncertainty still
exists concerning instability. A wind damage threat could continue
during the late evening and early overnight period if enough
instability can develop ahead of the squall-line.

..Broyles.. 10/25/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 260729
SWODY3
SPC AC 260728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
Thursday and Thursday night for the northeast Gulf Coast and coastal
Carolinas.

...Southeast...
A strong mid-level low/trough will slowly move eastward across the
lower MS Valley into the TN Valley during the period. An intense
belt of 90+ kt 500-mb flow will quickly move through the base of the
trough during the day and nose into the eastern Carolinas overnight.
An occluded surface low will meander eastward from the Ozarks into
the OH Valley as a cold front sweeps east across eastern AL/GA
during the day as a maritime warm front advances northward and
inland into the Carolina coastal plain.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning
over the northern Gulf Coast with an isolated severe risk probably
maintained from the overnight. Although mid-level lapse rates will
likely be marginal, rich boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s to
low-mid 70s surface dewpoints) will contribute to weak to moderate
buoyancy. An extensive cluster of convection over the Gulf will
likely spread into the west coast of the FL Peninsula during the
day. The wind profile will intensify as a ribbon of 50+ kt 700-mb
flow extends from near Tampa Bay north-northeastward into southern
SC during the afternoon to early evening. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are possible. During the evening, it is expected that
surface-based instability, via the northward-penetrating warm
sector, will develop into coastal SC and southern NC. Damaging
gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the more intense storms as
this activity spreads northeast during the overnight into NC.

..Smith.. 10/26/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 270657
SWODY3
SPC AC 270656

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A large mid-level low and associated trough will slowly migrate from
the OH/TN Valleys and northern Gulf Coast to the VA/Carolinas
vicinity by early Saturday morning. A cold front is forecast to
move into the western Atlantic from the NC coast and into the
Bahamian archipelago. It is possible a few storms may linger into
the start of the day-3 period from overnight Thursday night near the
NC Outer Banks. Model guidance differs on the placement of
potential convection and whether the front has moved offshore. This
scenario will be re-evaluated in later outlooks for the possibility
for a narrow window of time in which a strong storm or two could
occur during the morning. Farther south, a stray thunderstorm or
two is possible over coastal South FL during the morning.
Elsewhere, elevated and weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
closer to the mid-level cold pocket across parts of the central
Appalachians.

..Smith.. 10/27/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 280625
SWODY3
SPC AC 280624

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will move from VA to the Northeast U.S. and weaken
during the period. Strong forcing for ascent and the development of
pockets of weak instability may yield isolated thunderstorms over
New England. Elsewhere, relatively tranquil conditions will prevail
over a large part of the Lower 48 states.

..Smith.. 10/28/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 290646
SWODY3
SPC AC 290645

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur on Sunday throughout the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify/expand across the Midwest and
maintain cyclonic flow from the Prairie Provinces through the
Midwest and into the lower Great Lakes. At the surface, high
pressure will extend from the northern High Plains through much of
the area east of the Rockies. Mid-level moisture and a series of
very weak disturbances within a moderate belt of westerly flow will
move across northern UT and CO. Weak convection may yield a few
lightning flashes with this activity. Elsewhere, tranquil
conditions will prevail.

..Smith.. 10/29/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 300648
SWODY3
SPC AC 300647

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Cyclonic mid-level flow will be maintained across the Midwest and
Northeast as a mid-level low over northern Quebec. A disturbance
will move from the eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest
states. In the low levels, surface high pressure will be centered
over the northern Great Plains.

..Smith.. 10/30/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 310717
SWODY3
SPC AC 310716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level disturbance initially over the Four Corners will quickly
move east into OK by early Wednesday morning while a trough remains
centered over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, extensive surface
high pressure east of the Rockies will lead to mainly tranquil
conditions over a large part of the Lower 48 states. The exception
will be over the southern Great Plains with weak isentropic
lift/warm-air advection leading to increasing clouds and the chance
for isolated showers/thunderstorms by late in the day. The chance
for a cluster or two of weak elevated thunderstorms will likely
increase Tuesday night from the South Plains eastward near the Red
River.

..Smith.. 10/31/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 010720
SWODY3
SPC AC 010719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Mon Nov 01 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A longwave mid-level trough will be over eastern North America while
a ridge is located over the Interior West. A disturbance moving
southeastward into the base of the larger-scale trough will aid in showers/thunderstorms developing across central into eastern TX and
LA on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A frontal zone will push
southward through north-central TX and into the Hill Country during
the day. Weak buoyancy with parcels rooted near 700 mb will result
in episodic clusters of showers/thunderstorms continuing from
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and persisting through the
period as this activity moves southeast to the coast.

Farther west, a vigorous mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific
will approach northern CA/OR with isolated thunderstorms possible
near the coastal range.

..Smith.. 11/01/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 020655
SWODY3
SPC AC 020655

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Tue Nov 02 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A larger-scale mid-level trough over the eastern half of the CONUS
will feature a disturbance moving from east TX into the central Gulf
of Mexico during the period. In the low levels, a front in deep
south TX will push southeastward as a weak surface low develops and
moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Friday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage over the eastern
Gulf on Thursday evening into Thursday night with thunderstorms
mainly affecting the western portion of the FL Peninsula and lower
Keys. Relatively weak lapse rates/modest low-level moisture will
limit overall thunderstorm intensity over the FL Peninsula through
Thursday night.

Elsewhere, a mid-level trough will move from the Pacific Northwest
into the northern High Plains while a subsequent upstream trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by early Friday morning.

..Smith.. 11/02/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 030722
SWODY3
SPC AC 030721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough initially over the Gulf of Mexico will move east
to the FL Peninsula while a series of progressive shortwave troughs
move across the northwest and north-central states. A weak surface
low forecast to develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early
Friday morning will move east across the FL Peninsula by late Friday
evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as
large-scale ascent increases during the day. However, thunderstorm
intensity will likely be limited due in part to relatively meager
lapse rates and modest low-level flow.

..Smith.. 11/03/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 040725
SWODY3
SPC AC 040723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough over the FL Peninsula will move east into the
western Atlantic with scattered showers and thunderstorms located
over the Gulf Stream possibly approaching the coast during the day.
A flattened mid-level ridge will shift eastward from the
central-southern Rockies into the Great Plains as a series of
disturbances move through the northwestern CONUS. Low-topped
convection will focus near the Pacific Northwest coast and a few
lightning flashes are possible with the deeper updrafts. Tranquil
conditions will be prevalent across a large part of the Lower 48
states.

..Smith.. 11/04/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 050711
SWODY3
SPC AC 050711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

A broad, low-amplitude mid/upper trough will spread across the
Intermountain West to the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Sunday. A
few lightning flashes are possible along the WA and northwest OR
coasts as a couple of shortwave impulses move inland. Meanwhile, an
upper ridge will shift east of the Mississippi River while the
eastern upper trough tracks offshore into the western Atlantic. A
surface cold front will develop east/southeast across the
northern/central Plains vicinity, but a lack of moisture and a
stable boundary-layer will preclude thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 11/05/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 060655
SWODY3
SPC AC 060654

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

A progressive mid/upper level pattern will bring a shortwave trough
eastward from the Great Basin toward the MS Valley on Monday. Upper
troughing will persist across the West as a series of shortwave
troughs continue to impinge on the Pacific coast, bringing areas of
showers and heavy rain. At the surface, a cold front will slowly
progress southeast across parts of the mid-MS valley and
southern/central Plains. However, poor boundary-layer moisture and
little instability will preclude thunderstorm potential near the
front. Surface high pressure will persist over the eastern CONUS,
bringing tranquil weather conditions.

..Leitman.. 11/06/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 070704
SWODY3
SPC AC 070703

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will shift
east/northeast to New England on Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper trough
will develop eastward over the western U.S. and deepen as it
approaches the Rockies and adjacent High Plains late in the period.
Surface high pressure over the Southeast will continue to limit
boundary-layer moisture across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies.
However, lee surface troughing will develop late in the period in
response to the ejecting western trough. This will result in
increasing southerly low-level flow, allowing for modest northward
transport of Gulf moisture over parts of the southern Plains.
However, thunderstorm potential will remain low given poor
instability and weak forcing, though some showers are possible in
developing warm advection across parts of eastern TX/OK/KS Tuesday
night/early Wednesday.

..Leitman.. 11/07/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 080803
SWODY3
SPC AC 080802

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Plains. Hail
and locally damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with these
storms.

...Southern Plains...

A large-scale mid/upper trough will shift eastward across the Plains
on Wednesday. As this occurs, a weak surface low will develop over
the TX Panhandle and shift east into Oklahoma and then northeast
into the mid-MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow will transport
modest Gulf moisture northward ahead of the low and a
southeastward-advancing cold front. Upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints
are forecast across northern TX into much of OK. Some uncertainty
exists with regards to the northward extent of better quality
boundary-layer moisture and the exact position of the surface
low/cold front as forecast guidance all depict a slightly different
scenario. Nevertheless, at least weak instability (less than 1000
J/kg MLCAPE) and favorable vertical shear will overlap to support a
few strong to severe storms across parts of the southern Plains
Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates
and vertically veering wind profiles will support a threat for hail
in any more discrete convection. Otherwise, locally damaging wind
gusts will be possible in clusters/line segments along the front.
While some tornado threat could develop given somewhat favorable
low-level hodographs, overall threat appears low at this time given
weak low-level instability and a rather cool boundary-layer.

..Leitman.. 11/08/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 090754
SWODY3
SPC AC 090753

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Tue Nov 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low will reside over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest with
an attendant trough extending southeast to the lower MS Valley
Thursday morning. The upper low will deepen as it shifts east toward
the upper Great Lakes while a broad trough envelops much of the
CONUS east of the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will sweep
eastward across the Southeast and Midwest, extending from the
Mid-Atlantic to northern FL by Friday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Southeast.
However, severe thunderstorm potential will remain low as widespread precipitation and cloud cover limit destabilization.

..Leitman.. 11/09/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 100756
SWODY3
SPC AC 100755

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low and attendant trough will pivot eastward across the
Midwest and Southeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will
extend from western NY south/southwestward toward the FL Panhandle.
The front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by late afternoon,
arcing across the FL peninsula and into the northern Gulf. Limited
heating due to cloud cover and widespread precipitation near/ahead
of the front, and poor midlevel lapse rates, will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential across the eastern Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic. Better quality boundary-layer moisture will reside
over southern FL, resulting in MLCAPE values approaching 750-1000
J/kg. However, large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain
weak with poor low-level convergence near the surface boundary and
severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/10/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 110803
SWODY3
SPC AC 110802

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A series of shortwave troughs embedded in larger-scale upper level
flow will maintain troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS on
Saturday. Surface high pressure will build eastward from the
southern/central Plains into the southern U.S. while a cold front
sags slowly southward across southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible ahead of the front, but weak instability and
midlevel lapse rates, along with modest forcing for ascent and poor
frontal convergence will preclude severe potential. Elsewhere, a dry
and stable boundary-layer will preclude thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 11/11/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 120701
SWODY3
SPC AC 120700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Sunday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will remain over much of the eastern
CONUS on Sunday. A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough embedded
within the large-scale troughing should move eastward across the
OH/TN Valleys through the day, eventually reaching the East Coast by
the end of the period. Due to multiple prior frontal passages,
substantial low-level moisture should remain confined over the Gulf
of Mexico and far south FL. Accordingly, instability is currently
forecast to remain nil ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave
trough, with minimal thunderstorm potential apparent across the
CONUS on Sunday.

..Gleason.. 11/12/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 130701
SWODY3
SPC AC 130700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough should lift northeastward from the eastern states
across the western Atlantic and Canadian Maritime provinces on
Monday. In its wake, upper ridging should generally prevail across
most of the Rockies and Plains. Another upper trough is forecast to
move quickly eastward across British Columbia and the Pacific
Northwest through Monday evening, eventually reaching the northern
Rockies by the end of the period. Surface high pressure initially
centered over the Southeast should develop slowly eastward towards
the Atlantic Coast through the day, while lee troughing develops
over much of the High Plains. While some low-level moisture return
should occur across parts of the southern Plains through the period, thunderstorms appear unlikely across the CONUS owing to a lack of
instability overlapping large-scale ascent associated with either
upper trough.

..Gleason.. 11/13/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 140718
SWODY3
SPC AC 140718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low should move eastward across western/central
Canada and the north-central CONUS on Tuesday. At the surface,
generally shallow and modest low-level moisture should return
northward through the day over the southern Plains and lower/mid MS
Valley along/ahead of a cold front. Regardless, a pronounced cap
will likely inhibit the development of meaningful instability across
the warm sector, and convection capable of producing lightning
appears unlikely across the CONUS through the period.

..Gleason.. 11/14/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 150801
SWODY3
SPC AC 150800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough/low will continue moving eastward across
central Canada and the Plains on Wednesday. This trough should
eventually overspread much of the Midwest/Great Lakes and MS Valley
by the end of the period. An attendant surface low initially
centered over southern Manitoba is forecast to develop gradually
eastward across Ontario through the day in tandem with the upper
trough/low. A cold front extending from this surface low should
sweep generally east-southeastward across much of the Great
Lakes/Midwest, lower/mid MS Valley, and southern Plains.

Modest low-level moisture return should occur ahead of the cold
front, particularly across parts of central/east TX into the lower
MS Valley. However, instability will likely remain weak across the
warm sector owing to a low-level inversion. This cap should also
tend to limit potential for convection through much of the day, but
eventually the low-level frontal forcing should be enough for
isolated thunderstorms to develop Wednesday evening/night from parts
of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South
vicinity. Although there should be some modest enhancement to
deep-layer shear across these areas, the rather weak instability
forecast and tendency for convection to be quickly undercut by the
surging cold front will likely limit the potential for severe
thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 11/15/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 160801
SWODY3
SPC AC 160800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period
Thursday morning along/near a cold front across parts of Deep South
TX and coastal LA/MS. This front is expected to continue advancing
southward over the Gulf of Mexico through the day, which should
quickly end thunderstorm chances across both areas. Farther north, a large-scale upper trough/low should move from Ontario into Quebec
through the period, while the southern portion of the trough
develops eastward from the Great Lakes/OH Valley across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The primary surface low will remain
displaced well to the north of these regions in Canada. A cold front
arcing southward from this low is expected to sweep eastward across
much of the eastern CONUS through the day, and north FL Thursday
night.

Boundary-layer moisture will probably remain rather modest ahead of
the front along most of the East Coast, as a prior frontal passage
should limit potential for more robust return flow from either the
Gulf of Mexico or tropical Atlantic. This should hamper the
development of sufficient instability to support thunderstorms along
much of the front on Thursday, with the possible exception of
coastal NC/SC where convection may develop late. Still, there will
be strong flow at low/mid levels associated with the upper trough
that will overspread much of the Mid-Atlantic. If even a small
amount of boundary-layer instability can be realized, then
strong/gusty winds could occur with low-topped convection along the
front. At this point, latest guidance continues to suggest that
instability will remain too meager to support storms, with the
previously mentioned exception in coastal NC/SC. Otherwise,
thunderstorms will be possible Thursday across much of central/south
FL, where greater low-level moisture will reside. Poor mid-level
lapse rates and the lack of stronger flow below 500 mb should
greatly limit the severe threat across this area.

..Gleason.. 11/16/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 170801
SWODY3
SPC AC 170800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough is forecast to continue moving quickly northeastward
across the Mid-Atlantic and New England on Friday. At the surface, a
front will likely extend over the Gulf of Mexico across the FL
Peninsula and into the western Atlantic. To the north of this front,
surface high pressure is expected to dominate much of the eastern
CONUS through the period. The only appreciable chance for
thunderstorms Friday appears to be across parts of east-central and
south FL, where greater low-level moisture should be present south
of the front. Poor lapse rates and weak instability will likely
limit the potential for severe convection. Elsewhere, thunderstorms
are not expected across the rest of the CONUS due to a lack of
sufficient moisture and instability.

..Gleason.. 11/17/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 180801
SWODY3
SPC AC 180800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Surface high pressure initially centered over the East Coast should
gradually shift into the western Atlantic on Saturday as an area of
weak low pressure develops southeastward across south-central Canada
near the international border. An upper trough is forecast to
gradually amplify as it moves eastward across central Canada and
into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest by the end of the
period. Modest low-level moisture return should occur across parts
of the southern Plains ahead of a cold front attendant to the weak
surface low. Regardless, this moisture is expected to remain too shallow/limited to support thunderstorms. More substantial low-level
moisture will likely remain confined to parts of the FL Peninsula
through the day along/south of a remnant front. Large-scale ascent
across this region will remain nebulous at best. Still, weak
low-level convergence along sea breeze boundaries may be sufficient
for isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, mainly across parts
of the eastern and southern FL Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are
not expected.

..Gleason.. 11/18/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 190733
SWODY3
SPC AC 190732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Fri Nov 19 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Overall upper pattern is forecast to amplify throughout the day on
Sunday as a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the central
eastern CONUS lead to a deepening of the parent upper trough and
upper ridging moves across CA into the Great Basin. By early Monday
morning, expansive upper troughing will likely extend from the
Hudson Bay to the central Gulf Coast, with cyclonic flow throughout
this trough covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the
same time, upper ridging will likely extend from the Great Basin to
the central British Columbia/Alberta border.

The lead shortwave trough within the deepening parent upper trough
is expected to move eastward from the central Plains through the Mid
MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys. An associated surface low will track northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, moving from
south-central OK/north TX northeastward through the TN Valley. Cold
front attendant to this low will sweep southeastward across the
southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, and a few afternoon
thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this front from the
middle TX Coast into west-central LA.

Farther east, a few sea-breeze thunderstorms are possible across
central and southern FL Sunday afternoon. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will likely increase across the Gulf Stream within the
warm sector ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold
front. Much of this activity will remain offshore but a few flashes
are possible over the NC Outer Banks.

..Mosier.. 11/19/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 200700
SWODY3
SPC AC 200659

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sat Nov 20 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An amplified western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough upper pattern
is forecast to be in place early Monday morning before progressing
eastward throughout the day. Some amplification of the upper trough
is anticipated as it moves eastward towards the Eastern Seaboard
while the upper ridging deamplifies slightly as it moves into
Plains.

At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern NY
southwestward through the Mid-Atlantic and off the central Gulf
Coast early Monday morning. Stable conditions will persist in the
wake of this front across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The
only exception is across southern FL, where a few afternoon
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front.

..Mosier.. 11/20/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 210655
SWODY3
SPC AC 210654

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is forecast to remain progressive on Tuesday, with the
deep upper trough initially along the Eastern Seaboard moving
quickly eastward as expansive upper ridging moves from central
Plains across much of the eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper
troughing will deepen across the western CONUS, aided by a pair of
phased shortwave troughs, one moving across the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies and the other moving across the southern
CA/Baja Peninsula into southern AZ and far northwest Mexico.

A large area of surface high pressure will drift across the eastern
CONUS in the wake of the upper trough, keeping conditions stable.
Surface pressure will lower across the Plains ahead of the
approaching western CONUS upper trough, resulting a strong pressure
gradient and southerly winds across the southern and central Plains.
Some moisture return will result, but upper 50s dewpoints will
likely remain confined to areas south of I-10 in TX.

Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the CONUS,
precluding thunderstorm activity. The only exception is across
eastern AZ/western NM where strong ascent and cold temperatures
aloft could result in a few updrafts capable of producing lightning.
However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%.

..Mosier.. 11/21/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 220731
SWODY3
SPC AC 220730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on
Wednesday, but severe storm potential is currently low.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper trough is forecast to cover much of the western
and central CONUS early Wednesday. This upper trough is expected to
gradually progress eastward, while several embedded shortwave
troughs rotate through it. Guidance continues to suggest this upper
trough will trend toward bifurcation late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning, with an embedded shortwave remaining progressive
across the Canadian Prairie Provinces and northern Plains while
another less progressive embedded shortwave trough moves across
southern CA, western/southern AZ, and the northern Baja Peninsula.

A surface low will likely be centered over the MN Arrowhead
Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward to
another low over the eastern OK Panhandle. This cold front is
forecast to move southeastward throughout the period and is expected
to stretch from eastern Lower MI southwestward into the TX Hill
Country by early Thursday morning. Low-level moisture return ahead
of this front will bring mid 50s dewpoints into central/eastern OK
and low 60s dewpoints into north TX. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected in the vicinity of the front amid this increased moisture
and buoyancy. Much of this thunderstorm activity will likely be
north of the front and buoyancy will be modest, limiting the overall
severe storm potential. Even so, a few updrafts may be strong enough
to produce isolated hail, although anticipated low coverage and
limited predictability preclude introducing any probabilities.

..Mosier.. 11/22/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 230740
SWODY3
SPC AC 230739

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill
Country/south Texas into the Arklatex region, but severe storm
potential is currently low.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is expected to extend from western Ontario
southwestward across the Plains and Southwest through the central
Baja Peninsula early Thursday morning. Medium-range guidance is in
good agreement that this upper trough will fully bifurcate during
the period, with the northern portion continuing
eastward/southeastward and the southern part developing into a
closed circulation over the central Baja Peninsula.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from a low over
far northeastern Ontario southwestward to the Edwards Plateau in TX
Thursday morning. Modest low-level moisture and buoyancy are
expected to be in place ahead of this front from the TX Hill Country
into the Arklatex, and showers and isolated thunderstorm will likely
be ongoing in this region at the start of the period. Much of this
region will be displaced south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting
the overall severe potential. The only exception is around the
Arklatex will a storm or two could briefly become strong enough to
produce small hail. The cold front is expected to move off the TX
coast by Thursday evening, with stable conditions in its wake.

Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the Plains
as well as over the remaining portions of the CONUS.

..Mosier.. 11/23/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 240805
SWODY3
SPC AC 240804

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the contiguous
United States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to cover the eastern CONUS early Friday
morning, while an upper low remains centered over the Baja Peninsula
and a belt a strong westerlies stretches from the northeast Pacific
Ocean into the northern High Plains. The eastern CONUS upper trough
is expected to remain progressive, quickly moving off the Eastern
Seaboard while becoming more negatively tilted with time. A
shortwave trough will move quickly through the westerlies, moving
across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies and reaching the
northern High Plains by early Saturday morning. At the same time,
the upper low over Baja is expected to slowly drift eastward into
northwest Mexico.

At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from southern New
England southwestward through the eastern Carolinas and off the
coast of the central FL Peninsula early Friday. This front will move eastward/southeastward throughout the day, but limited low-level
moisture and buoyancy preceding the front will preclude thunderstorm development. Stable conditions are also expected elsewhere across
the CONUS.

..Mosier.. 11/24/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 250723
SWODY3
SPC AC 250722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CST Thu Nov 25 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs, one initially over the northern Plains
within the northern stream and the other initially over northwest
Mexico within the southern stream, will both progress eastward
throughout the day while undergoing minor phasing. Current
expectation is for the northern-stream shortwave trough to be
centered over the Upper OH Valley by early Sunday morning, while the southern-stream shortwave ends the period entering the Lower MS
Valley.

Surface low associated with the northern-stream system is also
forecast to track eastward and end the period over the Upper OH
Valley. At the same time, the cold front attendant to this low will
surge southeastward across the central/southern Plains and Mid MS
and OH Valley. Secondary surface low development is also expected
ahead of the southern-stream shortwave over the western Gulf of
Mexico. This will limit moisture return, keeping the low-level
moisture and buoyancy needed for thunderstorm development offshore.

In all, the progressive pattern will continue to bring dry,
continental air into the CONUS on Saturday, and no thunderstorms are
expected.

..Mosier.. 11/25/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 260556
SWODY3
SPC AC 260555

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Sunday
through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern U.S. may undergo
some amplification/sharpening near the Atlantic Seaboard during this
period. It appears that this will include one significant short
wave impulse digging southeast of the upper Great Lakes region into
the Northeast, within the primary belt of westerlies emanating from
the mid-latitude Pacific. Models suggest that associated forcing
for ascent may contribute to renewed cyclogenesis offshore of the
northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast, accompanied by a
reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the East.

Within the base of the mid-level troughing, models indicate that the
remnants of a cut-off low (now over the Baja vicinity) will rapidly
accelerate across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast, and
east of the Atlantic coast by Sunday evening. This may be
accompanied by mid/upper-level moisture return and weak high-based
convection across parts of the Gulf coast vicinity and Florida
Peninsula. However, generally dry and stable near-surface
conditions are forecast to persist, with the low/mid-level moisture
return to Texas on Saturday becoming suppressed southward across the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico Sunday through Sunday
night.

..Kerr.. 11/26/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 270556
SWODY3
SPC AC 270555

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that mid-level troughing will take on more of a negative
tilt orientation off the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, as
the most vigorous embedded short wave perturbation pivots northeast
of the northern Mid Atlantic and New England coast. Models indicate
that associated large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to
considerable further deepening of a surface cyclone, east/southeast
of the Cape Cod vicinity into the Canadian Maritimes by late Monday
night.

In the wake of this feature, and ahead of building mid-level ridging
across the northeastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest and
Canadian Rockies, much of interior North America will remain under
the influence of northwesterly flow. Cold surface ridging will also
likely be maintained beneath a confluent mid-level regime across
much of the Gulf Coast/Southeast and northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
contributing to the continuation of generally dry and/or stable
conditions across most of the U.S.

..Kerr.. 11/27/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 280522
SWODY3
SPC AC 280520

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
In the wake of a deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone forecast to
migrate north-northeast of the Canadian Maritimes, mid-level flow
may trend a bit more zonal east of the Rockies through the Atlantic
Seaboard during this period. While the pattern does appear likely
to remain broadly confluent across much of the Southeast, lower/mid tropospheric troughing may develop and deepen across much of the
Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, as a strong westerly
mid/upper jet rounds the crest of prominent ridging elongating from
the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific into the Great Basin. At
the same time, perturbations may continue to gradually emerge from
persistent weak troughing in the high-level westerlies, across the
subtropical eastern Pacific through the northern Mexican Plateau
vicinity.

While models suggest that this regime may allow for modest low-level
moistening to commence across the western Gulf of Mexico into
northwestern Gulf coastal areas Tuesday through Tuesday night, it
appears that this will be confined to a generally shallow
surface-based layer. Dry and/or stable conditions likely will
otherwise prevail across much of the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 11/28/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 290546
SWODY3
SPC AC 290545

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Mid-level ridging may be suppressed somewhat across parts of the
Pacific Northwest during this period, as one significant short wave perturbation progresses inland of the British Columbia coast through
the Canadian Rockies, around its crest. However, models indicate
that a strong belt of mid/upper flow will remain broadly
anticyclonic across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific through the
northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. The leading edge of this
jet is forecast to continue digging into downstream troughing,
across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Coast, with one
embedded perturbation accompanied by a modestly deep surface cyclone
quickly migrating from the Canadian Prairies through the upper Great
Lakes vicinity. At the same time, though, potentially cool surface
ridging appears likely to be maintained across much of the Gulf
Coast and Gulf of Mexico vicinity, beneath broadly confluent
mid/upper flow, which will continue to inhibit boundary-layer
moistening over the northern Gulf and preclude a substantive inland
moisture return. Generally dry and/or otherwise stable conditions
are expected to persist across much of the nation with little risk
for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 11/29/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 300546
SWODY3
SPC AC 300545

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of weak thunderstorms are possible near the Rio Grande
River and higher terrain of southwest Texas, but the risk of
thunderstorms appears negligible elsewhere across the U.S. Thursday
through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Aside from some suppression due to a significant digging short wave
impulse to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, strong mid/upper flow is
forecast to persist in a broadly anticyclonic belt across the
eastern mid-latitude Pacific through the northern U.S. Great Plains
and Mississippi Valley, into the Mid Atlantic Coast vicinity by late
Thursday night. The leading edge of this jet is forecast to dig
southeast of the Mid Atlantic coast, to the south of a strengthening
mid-level perturbation, which may support substantive further
deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Quebec through the
lower St. Lawrence Valley. At the same time, a developing
perturbation emerging from persistent weak mid/upper troughing in
the subtropical westerlies is forecast to overspread parts of the
southern Rockies, Rio Grande River and higher terrain of southwest
Texas, and adjacent southern Great Plains. As this occurs, surface
ridging initially encompassing much of the Gulf Coast and Gulf of
Mexico may begin to slowly weaken. However, low-level moisture
return likely will remain generally modest, and confined to the
lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of south central Texas through
this period.

Lower/mid-level moisture return emanating from the subtropical
eastern Pacific likely will accompany the upper impulse, across the
Rio Grande Valley into parts of the southern Great Plains. In the
presence of modestly steep lapse rates across the higher terrain of
southwest Texas, it is possible that this may contribute to
sufficient instability to support a couple of thunderstorms late
Thursday afternoon. Weak destabilization rooted in mid-levels
(roughly around 700 mb) is possible farther northeastward, across
parts of the Texas South Plains and Edwards Plateau into central
Texas by late Thursday night. However, it is not yet clear that
this will support a risk of convection capable of producing more
than occasional, very isolated lightning flashes.

..Kerr.. 11/30/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 010600
SWODY3
SPC AC 010559

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Friday through Friday night, but a low probability of thunderstorms
may develop across the southern Great Plains.

...Discussion...
One prominent branch of increasingly split westerlies, emanating
from the mid-latitude Pacific, appears likely to remain broadly
anticyclonic across the western Canadian/U.S. border into the
northern U.S. Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through this
period. However, mid/upper flow across the Great Lakes region may
trend at least broadly cyclonic, in response to a significant short
wave perturbation digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies. It
appears that this will be accompanied by much more modest surface
cyclogenesis than the preceding short wave impulse, but models
suggest that a more prominent cold surface ridge will build
southeast of the northern Rockies, through much of the northern into
central Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley by 12Z Saturday.

At the same time, a series of short wave perturbations is forecast
to continue to develop eastward across parts of the Southwest into
the Gulf Coast states, within a weak branch of westerlies emanating
from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Across parts of the southern
Great Plains, elevated moisture return of subtropical Pacific origin
will be coupled with moistening from the Gulf of Mexico, on
southerly low-level return flow. Models continue to suggest that
the Gulf moisture return may be mostly confined to a relatively
shallow near-surface layer, beneath relatively warm and capping
elevated mixed-layer air. However, within weak surface troughing
ahead of the southward advancing cold front, and perhaps within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection to the northeast of a weak
frontal wave by late Friday night, areas of destabilization and lift
may become sufficient to support isolated to widely scattered weak
thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 12/01/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 020711
SWODY3
SPC AC 020710

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CST Thu Dec 02 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Weak thunderstorm activity is possible Saturday through Saturday
night in a corridor across the southern Great Plains into the Mid
South.

...Synopsis...
Downstream of amplified troughing (including a number of embedded perturbations) within the split westerlies across the eastern
Pacific, models indicate that mid/upper ridging will build along an
axis from the lower latitudes into areas near or just west of much
of the North American Pacific coast. Downstream flow appears likely
to take on more of a northwesterly component across and east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, with one significant short wave
impulse on the leading edge of this regime digging into the northern
U.S. Great Plains by late Saturday night. This is forecast to be
accompanied by at least modest surface cyclogenesis, while cold
surface ridging, initially encompassing much of the northern/central
Great Plains and upper half of the Mississippi Valley at the outset
of the period, rapidly shifts to the Atlantic Seaboard in the wake
of a preceding short wave trough.

In lower latitudes, perturbations emerging from mid/upper troughing,
within a weak branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical
eastern Pacific, appear likely to continue migrating eastward across
parts of the Southwest into southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast
states Saturday through Saturday night. In addition to continuing
elevated moisture return from the subtropical Pacific, a southerly
return flow of moisture off a modifying western Gulf of Mexico
boundary layer is forecast to persist across the lower Rio Grande
Valley through parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid
South. It appears that the low-level moisture return will be
gradually undercut by a weakening cold front on the leading edge of
remnant shallow cold air, which may continue to advance
southward/southeastward across parts of the Mid South and southern
Great Plains through late Saturday night.

...Southern Great Plains into Mid South...
Weak mid-level destabilization, associated primarily with the influx
of the Pacific moisture, may continue to support a risk for
scattered weak thunderstorms across parts of the southeastern Great
Plains and Mid South into the day Saturday. Later Saturday into
Saturday night, it appears that Gulf moisture return above the
southward advancing cold front might be the primary contributor to destabilization supportive of scattered weak thunderstorm
development, downstream of a short wave trough progressing across
and east-southeast of the southern Rockies.

..Kerr.. 12/02/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 030823
SWODY3
SPC AC 030822

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Fri Dec 03 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday from parts
of coastal/east Texas to the Mid-South.

...Coastal/East Texas to the Mid-South...
The mid-latitude westerlies extending across the northern CONUS are
expected to undergo substantial amplification Sunday as a shortwave
trough digs from the northern Plains across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. Phasing of this feature with a low-amplitude,
southern-stream perturbation may also encourage further
amplification of the large-scale upper trough across much of the MS
Valley by late Sunday night. At the surface, a low associated with
the primary shortwave trough is forecast to develop from the
northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Sunday evening,
while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the much
of the Plains and upper/mid MS Valley.

Modest low-level moisture return from the western Gulf of Mexico
should occur ahead of the front from parts of central/east TX into
the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. There is still a fair amount of
variability in model guidance regarding the northward extent of at
least upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints, which will probably be
needed to support surface-based convection. Still, the latest GFS
and ECMWF are in general agreement that at least weak instability
should develop across these regions by late Sunday afternoon.
Convective initiation will probably delayed until Sunday evening and
the arrival of the cold front, by which point stronger mid-level
westerly winds associated with the southern-stream shortwave trough
will likely have overspread the warm sector. The forecast
combination of weak instability and strong low- and deep-layer shear
should prove sufficient for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.
The convection that forms along the front will likely become linear
fairly quickly, with mainly a threat for strong to damaging wind
gusts Sunday evening and overnight as thunderstorms move
east-southeastward.

There also appears to be some potential for open warm-sector
development across parts of east/coastal TX and southeastern OK
Sunday evening/night as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens.
Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates across this region may
support an isolated threat for severe hail in addition to damaging
winds with any discrete storms that can form. The thunderstorms that
develop along/ahead of the front should eventually outpace the
low-level moisture return and slowly weaken with eastward extent
across the Mid-South and lower MS Valley late Sunday night into
early Monday morning.

..Gleason.. 12/03/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 040816
SWODY3
SPC AC 040815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Sat Dec 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur mainly Monday
morning from parts of coastal/east Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified, large-scale upper trough should move from the
central to eastern CONUS on Monday. An upper low in the southern
stream should shift eastward across northern Mexico through the day,
eventually reaching south TX late Monday into early Tuesday morning.
At the surface, a low over the Upper Great Lakes is forecast to
develop northeastward into Ontario/Quebec, with a trailing cold
front likely to continue sweeping east-southeastward over the East
Coast, Southeast, and southern Plains through the period.

...Coastal/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing early Monday morning along/ahead of
the front across parts of coastal/east TX into the lower MS Valley.
The primary forcing associated with the upper trough will remain
displaced to the north of this region. Still, the low-level ascent
associated with the surface cold front should be enough to support
continued convection through at least Monday morning. Generally low
to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest diurnal heating should
foster weak instability across the warm sector. Even though the
low/mid-level wind field will likely veer and gradually weaken
though the day as the upper trough shifts farther east, there should
be enough enhancement to the mid-level westerlies to support
sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.
Isolated strong to severe storms posing a threat for mainly damaging
winds and perhaps marginally severe hail appear possible mainly
Monday morning. As convection develops east-southeastward in tandem
with the cold front, the deep-layer shear should slowly diminish
through the day. There should be a tendency for these thunderstorms
to gradually weaken with southward and eastward extent by late
Monday afternoon.

...Northeast...
Very strong low/mid-level flow is forecast to overspread much of the
Northeast on Monday as the upper trough progresses over the eastern
states. Latest guidance suggests that, at best, low 50s surface
dewpoints may attempt to move inland across parts of southern New
England ahead of the cold front. Weak MUCAPE extending through a
sufficiently deep layer could support charge separation and
occasional lightning flashes with elevated convection. At this
point, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms with any
strong/gusty wind threat appears limited due to the meager low-level
moisture and related lack of boundary-layer instability.

..Gleason.. 12/04/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 050817
SWODY3
SPC AC 050816

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing should once again develop across much of
the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a lead wave ejects from New
England northeastward over the Canadian Maritimes. Surface high
pressure is expected to dominate much of the CONUS east of the
Rockies as it slowly shifts eastward to the Atlantic Coast through
the period. Due to a prior frontal passage, rich low-level moisture
is forecast to remain confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast.
Only very weak boundary-layer instability is forecast to develop
across parts of north FL Tuesday afternoon, and the potential for
robust thunderstorms appears low. However, some elevated convection
may occur mainly Tuesday evening/night from coastal TX to the
central Gulf Coast states as modest low-level warm/moist advection
develops on the southern periphery of the amplifying upper trough.

..Gleason.. 12/05/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 060816
SWODY3
SPC AC 060815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Isolated weak/elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of
the period Wednesday morning across parts of the Southeast in a
modest low-level warm advection regime. As a large-scale upper
trough moves quickly eastward across much of the eastern CONUS, this
convection is forecast to likewise develop eastward towards the
Atlantic Coast. Elevated instability ahead of this activity should
remain quite meager due to a prior frontal intrusion into the
northern Gulf of Mexico. There also appears to be some chance that
modest low-level moisture may be able to advance inland across parts
of north FL and southern GA by Wednesday afternoon. Regardless,
mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be particularly poor, which
should limit the degree of MLCAPE that can develop. While a few
surface-based storms could form across this area during the day, the
weak forecast instability suggests that the overall severe potential
should remain low.

..Gleason.. 12/06/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 070809
SWODY3
SPC AC 070808

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Tue Dec 07 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
States on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to amplify over the western
CONUS on Thursday. A southern-stream shortwave trough initially just
west of Baja California should move quickly northeastward over
northern Mexico through the day. This feature is forecast to
eventually reach the southern Plains late Thursday night into early
Friday morning while being absorbed into the synoptic-scale upper
trough over the western states. Robust lee cyclogenesis appears
likely over the central High Plains through the period. A strong
low-level mass response will transport rich low-level moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico northward across central/east TX, the lower MS
Valley, and Mid-South by the end of the period. Mainly elevated
convection appears possible across this general region in the warm
and moist low-level advection regime. MUCAPE is forecast to remain
fairly muted owing to modest mid-level lapse rates, which should
temper the overall severe potential with any thunderstorms that can
develop on Thursday. Across the Pacific Northwest, isolated
lightning flashes appear possible mainly along/near the WA/OR Coast
with low-topped convection as cold mid-level temperatures associated
with a progressive shortwave trough overspread this region.

..Gleason.. 12/07/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 080816
SWODY3
SPC AC 080815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Wed Dec 08 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and
scattered damaging winds appear possible Friday into Friday night
across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, and Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified upper trough centered over the Rockies Friday
morning should advance eastward across the Plains through the day,
eventually reaching the MS Valley by the end of the period. Rather
strong low/mid-level southwesterly flow will be present ahead of the
upper trough across much of the lower/mid MS Valley into the OH/TN
Valleys. A surface low initially over the central High Plains is
forecast to develop eastward across the southern/central Plains
through the day. This low should continue northeastward while
gradually deepening over the mid MS Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes
from Friday evening though early Saturday morning.

Rich low-level moisture characterized by at least mid to upper 60s
surface dewpoints will likely be in place Friday morning from
central/east TX into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. As both the
large-scale upper trough and related surface low shift eastward,
this moist low-level airmass is forecast to spread northward in
tandem with a warm front into the mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and
parts of the Southeast by Friday evening. A cold front attendant to
the surface low will sweep eastward from the southern/central Plains
to the vicinity of the TX Coast and MS River by the end of the
period.

...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast...
Even with the low-level moisture across these regions increasing
through the day, generally modest mid-level lapse rates will tend to
limit the degree of instability that can develop, especially with
northward extent into the mid MS Valley, Midwest, and OH Valley.
Still, most guidance suggests that MLCAPE will be sufficient (at
least 500 J/kg) across a majority of the warm sector to support
surface-based storms. A fair amount of uncertainty remains regarding
the timing of robust convection. The 00Z ECMWF indicates that an
embedded shortwave trough will overspread the lower MS Valley during
the day, potentially supporting convective initiation earlier than
other guidance would suggest. Regardless, thunderstorms will likely
increase in coverage and intensity along/ahead of the cold front by
Friday evening and continue eastward through Friday night, as strong
forcing associated with the large-scale upper trough overspreads the
warm sector.

Deep-layer shear is forecast to become quite strong by Friday
evening owing to the strength of the mid-level southwesterly flow.
50+ kt of effective bulk shear will easily support updraft
organization. A mix of supercells and clusters may develop
initially, but dominant convective mode should quickly trend to
linear Friday night as thunderstorms grow upscale into one or more
lines along/ahead of the cold front. Even though not much veering
with height is forecast in the boundary layer due to mostly
southwesterly flow, there should be ample speed shear, as the winds
at 850 mb are expected to strengthen to 50-60+ kt Friday night.
Strong 0-1-km SRH should support low-level rotation with any
supercells or embedded QLCS circulations, and a few tornadoes may
occur. Isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds also appear
possible given the strength of the low-level flow, as it will not
take much for convective downdraft accelerations to allow the
already enhanced low-level winds to reach the surface.

Primary uncertainties precluding greater severe probabilities at
this time include the degree of boundary-layer instability, a large
component of front-parallel flow in both low/mid levels, and the
late timing of robust convective development. The northern extent of
any severe threat in the Midwest/OH Valley is also quite uncertain,
but most guidance suggests at least upper 50s to perhaps low 60s
surface dewpoints may advance as far northward as east-central IL
into IN and southwestern OH. This may be sufficient for low-topped
convection to become surface based. The eastern extent of the severe
threat will be tied to the location of storms along or just ahead of
the front at the end of the Day 3 period, with expectations that at
least a marginal/isolated severe threat will likely continue farther
east into Day 4/Saturday.

..Gleason.. 12/08/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 090831
SWODY3
SPC AC 090830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Dec 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday from
parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts should be the main threat.

...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast...
The northern portion of a large-scale upper trough should continue
to move east-northeastward across the Midwest, OH Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Saturday. Very strong flow at
low/mid-levels will accompany this upper trough over much of these
regions. These enhanced southwesterly winds should gradually weaken
with southward extent across the Southeast. The primary surface low
associated with this cyclone should be located over the Great Lakes
Saturday morning. This low is forecast to develop northeastward into Ontario/Quebec by Saturday evening, with a trailing cold front
expected to sweep east-southeastward over much of the eastern CONUS.

An extensive, broken line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period extending from portions of the OH Valley
across the Southeast and into coastal TX. Both low-level and
deep-layer shear should remain strong through at least Saturday
morning across these regions, which should support continued
thunderstorm organization. The mainly linear nature of this
convection suggests that isolated strong to damaging winds should be
the main threat as it develops east-southeastward along or just
ahead of the cold front. Still, given the strength of the low-level
flow, a brief embedded QLCS tornado or two may also occur.

Across the OH/TN Valleys into the central Appalachians, the
low-level moisture will likely become pinched off against the higher
terrain, which may lessen the severe threat to some degree. Greater
low-level moisture will be present across the Southeast, but this
region will remain displaced to the north of the better ascent
associated with the departing upper trough. In addition, the
low/mid-level flow is expected to become increasingly parallel to
the surface front over the Southeast, especially by Saturday
afternoon. This should act to weaken low-level convergence along the
front, and the overall severe threat should gradually diminish with southeastward extent.

...Mid-Atlantic...
It is not out of the question that a low-topped convective line may
form with the eastward-moving cold front along/east of the Blue
Ridge Mountains by late Saturday afternoon. Latest guidance suggests
that surface dewpoints may reach into the mid 50s to perhaps lower
60s across the warm sector. With mid-level lapse rates expected to
remain quite poor, it remains uncertain whether sufficient
boundary-layer instability will exist to encourage the strong
low-level flow accompanying the upper trough to reach the surface
through convective downdraft processes. Regardless, have included
low severe probabilities for damaging winds if this scenario
unfolds.

..Gleason.. 12/09/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 100650
SWODY3
SPC AC 100649

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Sunday in south Florida
and from Sunday into Sunday night along parts of the West Coast, but
no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward into the western
Atlantic on Sunday as a cold front advances southward to the
northern Florida Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
in a moist airmass across south Florida Sunday afternoon. Lightning
strikes will also be possible along parts of the West Coast Sunday
and Sunday night as an upper-level trough approaches. No severe
weather is expected in the continental United States Sunday and
Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 12/10/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 110727
SWODY3
SPC AC 110726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible across the Florida
Peninsula on Monday, and across parts of the West Coast Monday into
Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
Southwest mid-level flow will become established across the western
U.S. on Monday as zonal flow remains over the eastern states. At the
surface, a moist airmass will advect northward onto the Texas
Coastal Plains. A moist airmass will also be in place across central
and south Florida where isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible during the afternoon. In the west, isolated lightning
strikes will occur from the coast of central California northward
into western Washington. No severe weather is expected Monday or
Monday night across the continental United States.

..Broyles.. 12/11/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 120723
SWODY3
SPC AC 120722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along
parts of the West Coast, and across the southern and eastern Florida
Peninsula.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast on Tuesday as
southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western and
central U.S. Isolated lightning strikes may occur along the coasts
of Washington, Oregon and California as the upper-level trough
approaches. Additional thunderstorm activity may develop Tuesday
afternoon across parts of the southern and eastern Florida
Peninsula. No severe weather is expected across the continental
United States on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 12/12/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 130711
SWODY3
SPC AC 130710

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CST Mon Dec 13 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday in the southern
Plains, lower Missouri Valley, upper Mississippi Valley, across
parts of the Florida Peninsula and along the coast of the Pacific
Northwest. No severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward across the
central Rockies and central Plains on Wednesday. Low-level moisture
will increase along a corridor from the Arklatex to the lower
Missouri Valley. Although isolated thunderstorms will be possible
along the moist corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening,
instability is expected to remain very weak. For this reason, a
severe threat is not forecast. Isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible across southern and eastern Florida and along the coast of
the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop
across the continental United States on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.

..Broyles.. 12/13/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 131815
SWODY3
SPC AC 131815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CST Mon Dec 13 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A band of strong storms is expected to evolve over the mid Missouri
Valley region during the afternoon, shifting quickly toward the
upper Mississippi Valley into the evening. A couple of damaging
wind gusts will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous upper low -- initially crossing the Four Corners region
-- is forecast to eject rapidly northeastward out of the Rockies and
into the central Plains by evening. The system will then continue northeastward to Upper Great Lakes by the end of the period. This
ejection will occur as a second trough shifts southeastward toward
-- and eventually into -- the western states through the second half
of the period. Meanwhile, ridging will prevail over the East.

At the surface, low pressure deepening over the Colorado/Wyoming
area at the start of the period will shift into/across Nebraska
through the afternoon, while a trailing cold front shifts across the
central Plains/southern High Plains region through sunset. By the
end of the period, the low should reside in the vicinity of Lake
Superior, with the trailing front extending from Lake Michigan
southwestward to central Texas.

...Mid Missouri Valley/upper Mississippi Valley region...
Notwithstanding questions regarding the degree of pre-frontal moistening/destabilization which may occur during the day Wednesday,
rapid low- to mid-level atmospheric modification will occur ahead of
the deepening low/frontal system. It appears at this time that a
narrow frontal band of relatively low-topped convection will
develop, most likely over eastern Nebraska, which would then move
quickly northeastward across Iowa and possibly southern Minnesota,
depending upon how far northward any near-surface-based
destabilization can occur.

Despite the questionable/minimally supportive thermodynamic
environment, strong flow aloft accompanying this system will support
very fast storm motion. Given southwesterly low-level (850mb) flow
in the 70 to 80 mph range anticipated, damaging wind gusts would be
a possibility with any stronger storm or line segment. Given this
potential, a MRGL/5% risk area will be introduced, centered over the
Iowa area. Adjustments to area and/or probability level will likely
be required in later outlooks, as the scenario -- particularly the
rapid evolution of the thermodynamic environment ahead of the front
-- becomes a bit more certain.

..Goss.. 12/13/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 140732
SWODY3
SPC AC 140731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Tue Dec 14 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Thursday
across parts of the Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley.

....Arklatex/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough will move east-northeastward across the mid
Mississippi Valley on Thursday as west to southwest mid-level flow
becomes established in the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southeastward across the Arklatex and southern
Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid
60s F should yield SBCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range by
afternoon. As low-level convergence increases ahead of the front,
isolated to scattered convective initiation is forecast to take
place in the early to mid afternoon. The weak instability combined
with moderate deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal
wind-damage threat, mainly from northeast Texas into Arkansas. The
best chance for strong wind gusts may be in southern Arkansas where
the combination of instability and shear is forecast to become
maximized relative to the surrounding areas. Any severe threat may
persist into the early evening before weakening instability
decreases the threat.

..Broyles.. 12/14/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 150808
SWODY3
SPC AC 150807

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible from
parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi on Friday. A
few storms may also occur across the southern Florida Peninsula. No
severe threat is expected Friday or Friday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move across the central and northern High
Plains on Friday as west-southwest mid-level flow remains
established from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A quasi-stationary front will be in place from north Texas
east-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Near and to the
south of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the
lower 60s F yielding weak instability by afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be possible near the front in the late afternoon.
Convective coverage is expected to increase during the early evening
as low-level flow strengthens. The instability could be enough to
support a few strong wind gusts but there is too much spatial
uncertainty to introduce a marginal risk at this time.

..Broyles.. 12/15/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 160801
SWODY3
SPC AC 160800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States on Saturday or Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley and Ozarks on Saturday. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain,
lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the
front, weak instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon
along the lower to middle Texas Coast, where thunderstorm
development will be possible. Isolated thunderstorms may also
develop along or near the front in the central Gulf Coast states
during the afternoon. No severe threat is expected in these two
areas mainly due to a lack of instability and large-scale ascent.

..Broyles.. 12/16/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 170731
SWODY3
SPC AC 170730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States Sunday or Sunday Night.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will move off the East Coast on
Sunday with a secondary trough across northern Mexico. At the
surface, a cold front will extend from a surface low across the
western Atlantic through the Carolinas and Georgia and into the
central Gulf of Mexico.

...Eastern Carolinas and Southeast Georgia...
A few thunderstorms may occur along the surface front from the
eastern Carolinas into eastern Georgia during the day Sunday, but
limited instability and shear should limit any severe weather
threat.

...South Texas...
Elevated thunderstorms are possible in the post frontal airmass
across south Texas Sunday afternoon/night ahead of the mid-level
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings show enough buoyancy for
thunderstorms and moderate to strong shear, but instability will
likely remain too limited for any severe threat.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 180748
SWODY3
SPC AC 180747

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the Continental United
States on Monday or Monday Night.

...Synopsis...
An amplifying mid-level shortwave trough will move across the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Monday Night. As this trough
amplifies, surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Gulf with a
surface low approaching the western Coast of Florida by 12Z Tuesday.

...Northern and central Florida...
A weakening cold front will be stalled somewhere near central
Florida on Monday morning. This front will start to lift northward
as a warm front through the day and into the overnight hours as a
strengthening surface low approaches from the west. Dewpoints are
expected to recover into the upper 60s across much of the Peninsula
by early Tuesday morning. As this area of low pressure moves closer,
hodographs are expected to enlarge with wind profiles favorable for
supercells and sufficient low-level shear to support some low-level
rotation. Differences in timing/evolution of the wave are the
primary limiting factors for severe probabilities at this time.
While at least a marginal severe threat is expected as the surface
low crosses the Florida Peninsula, it is still uncertain whether
sufficient instability and storm coverage will move onshore before
12Z Tuesday.

..Bentley.. 12/18/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 180801
SWODY3
SPC AC 180800

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the Continental United
States on Monday or Monday Night.

...Synopsis...
An amplifying mid-level shortwave trough will move across the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Monday Night. As this trough
amplifies, surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Gulf with a
surface low approaching the western Coast of Florida by 12Z Tuesday.

...Northern and central Florida...
A weakening cold front will be stalled somewhere near central
Florida on Monday morning. This front will start to lift northward
as a warm front through the day and into the overnight hours as a
strengthening surface low approaches from the west. Dewpoints are
expected to recover into the upper 60s across much of the Peninsula
by early Tuesday morning. As this area of low pressure moves closer,
hodographs are expected to enlarge with wind profiles favorable for
supercells and sufficient low-level shear to support some low-level
rotation. Differences in timing/evolution of the wave are the
primary limiting factors for severe probabilities at this time.
While at least a marginal severe threat is expected as the surface
low crosses the Florida Peninsula, it is still uncertain whether
sufficient instability and storm coverage will move onshore before
12Z Tuesday.

..Bentley.. 12/18/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 190724
SWODY3
SPC AC 190723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida
Peninsula on Tuesday morning/afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from the central Gulf Coast Tuesday
morning to the western Atlantic by early Wednesday. A deepening
surface cyclone will accompany this trough eastward with a warm
front moving north along the Peninsula through the morning hours.

...Florida Peninsula...
Low-level thermal and moisture advection will be occurring Tuesday
ahead of the surface low as it approaches the Florida coast. This
will lead to at least some destabilization and potential for strong thunderstorms as the shear profile strengthens. However, there is
considerable model disagreement regarding the strength of the
upper-level trough and thus the strength/location of the surface
low. This will affect the location, intensity, and timing of any
severe storm threat. The ECMWF has been the most consistent over the
past several runs and thus, more weight is being given to the
stronger ECMWF solution. This solution has greater instability and
shear and could pose a tornado threat along and just south of the
warm front where low-level flow would be more backed, increasing
low-level SRH.

In addition, mid-level lapse rates will be quite weak across the
Peninsula which casts doubt on the strength of any storms which do
form with this surface low. It appears dewpoints approaching 70F may
be necessary for a thermodynamic profile favorable for more robust
updraft development and a greater severe weather threat. Given the
frontal passage on Sunday/Sunday night, this will require
significant moisture return on Monday night and Tuesday morning
which the ECMWF currently shows, but which is not as apparent from
other guidance.

Therefore, there is sufficient risk for severe storms on Tuesday morning/afternoon to justify a marginal risk, but uncertainty in the
synoptic setup remains higher than may typically be expected for a
Day 3 forecast and thus forecast confidence is lower than normal.

..Bentley.. 12/19/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 200828
SWODY3
SPC AC 200827

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated general thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the
West Coast into interior northern California, mainly Wednesday
evening and night.

...West Coast and northern CA...
In the wake of a lead shortwave impulse shifting east from the
Northwest to the northern Rockies, a more amplified trough will
approach the Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z/Thu. In response,
onshore flow will be maintained but more importantly strengthen,
especially during the latter half of the period. While buoyancy will
likely remain scant with surface dew points peaking in the mid to
upper 40s, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and increasing
large-scale ascent may prove sufficient for sporadic lightning
production along the immediate coast. A low-probability thunder
threat may spread into interior northern CA as well, mainly on
Wednesday night.

..Grams.. 12/20/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 210650
SWODY3
SPC AC 210649

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early in the day on the 23rd,
across coastal parts of the Oregon and California.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern this period will feature mostly zonal
flow over the eastern 1/2-2/3 of the CONUS, downstream from a
progressive western CONUS trough. That perturbation -- now apparent
in moisture-channel imagery over southwestern AK -- is expected to
amplify day-2 as it moves southeastward across the Canadian Pacific
Coast and Pacific Northwest. On day 3, the trough should pivot
eastward from near the coast to the northern Rockies, southern ID
and CA by 24/00Z. The late day-2 thunder potential over the
coastal OR/northwestern CA marine layer should persist into the
first few hours of this period before the trough passes and lapse
rates weaken aloft. Lightning also cannot be ruled out well inland
over parts of ID or the northern Great Basin, as lapse rates steepen
with the trough's approach. However, the boundary layer will be
cold over much of the region, and potential appears too isolated and
poorly focused to outline 10% unconditional flash coverage in that
region, this soon.

As an upstream mid/upper trough digs south-southeastward from the
Gulf of Alaska to just offshore from the Pacific Northwest
overnight, the leading trough will accelerate eastward across the
Rockies and at least parts of the Great Plains States by 24/12Z.
Phase-speed spread increases after 24/00Z -- both surface and aloft,
and in operational/deterministic progs and ensembles. This lends
uncertainty to low-level frontal position as frontogenetic forcing
occurs in the Rockies and shifts eastward across at least the High
Plains. Guidance also varies considerably with amplitude of the
southern branch of the trough after 24/00Z. The foregoing warm-
sector return flow will be broad, but immaturely modified in any
case, with a strong EML spreading over the southern/central Plains,
and the 55 deg F surface isodrosotherm likely remaining south of the
Ozarks and under that EML this period.

Midlevel moisture may support some elevated convective potential
late in the period (i.e., after about 24/09Z) from MO to MN, some of
which may access weak buoyancy extending to near the -20 C isotherm.
Given the aforementioned uncertainties and their potential impact on
mass response, thunder potential appears too uncertain and/or
isolated for an outlook area at this time.

..Edwards.. 12/21/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 220752
SWODY3
SPC AC 220751

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunder is possible near the Pacific Coast, as well as over
portions of the southern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A series of shortwave perturbations will contribute to maintenance
of mean mid/upper-level troughing near the West Coast through
day-3/Christmas Eve. In the northern stream, a strong shortwave
trough is evident in moisture-channel imagery east of the Kamchatka
Peninsula. The leading part of this perturbation is forecast, with
reasonable consistency among various deterministic progs and most
ensemble members, to reach the WA coastline early this period then
weaken, while its western lobe digs southeastward across the Pacific
offshore from OR and northern CA. Associated DCVA/cooling aloft
should pivot ashore over OR/CA during the latter half of the period.

Progressively colder air aloft will spread across the inland
Northwest, Great Basin and northern Intermountain regions, but
predominantly atop cool surface conditions. Very isolated flashes
cannot be ruled out across a vast area of the CONUS between the
Rockies and Pacific coastal thunder potential. A relatively focused
(but still isolated) thunder potential may spread eastward across
portions of the southern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau during the
latter half of the period, as a Pacific southern-stream shortwave
trough discussed in the day-2 outlook ejects east-northeastward out
of the mean trough and across this region. Accompanying DCVA/
cooling aloft and low/middle-level moist advection above the surface
may support sporadic flashes within a broad plume of precip/showers.
This perturbation should weaken considerably as it moves past the
south-central Rockies.

Broad lee cyclogenesis/frontogenesis is expected over parts of the central/northern Rockies and adjoining High Plains beneath strong west-southwesterlies aloft, and as heights fall to the west.
However, a well-developed EML should cover most of the southern/
central Plains into lower/mid Mississippi Valley. Any substantial
moisture return from the Gulf should be too displaced from the areas
with strongest deep-layer forcing -- and from a weakly convergent
cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes across the central
Plains -- to support 10%+ thunder potential east of the Rockies.

..Edwards.. 12/22/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 230733
SWODY3
SPC AC 230732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Thu Dec 23 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Pacific Coast and
in portions of the Ohio Valley on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An amplifying mid-level trough will move onshore on the West Coast
on Saturday. Farther east, a mid-level trough will weaken as it
moves through the Ohio Valley with mid-level ridging building across
the central Plains.

...West Coast...
A reinforcing shot of cold air aloft will arrive as the upper-level
trough approaches. This colder air aloft, with relatively warm ocean
waters at the surface, will provide enough instability for some
isolated lightning with cellular activity over the water. While most
activity should remain near the coast, some isolated lightning
strikes may make it farther inland in the central California Valley.

...Ohio Valley...
A weak mid-level trough will deamplify as it moves from the Midwest
to the Ohio Valley during the day. While the upper-level feature
will not be that apparent, the frontal circulation is expected to
strengthen through the day which will lead to an increasing
precipitation shield along and to the north of the front. Low-level
moisture advection is expected to feed mid 50s dewpoints northward
to near the front. This moisture is expected to be quite deep with
850mb dewpoints in excess of 8C. Any instability in the region will
likely be quite weak, but enough may exist for a few lightning
flashes near the front.

..Bentley.. 12/23/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 240735
SWODY3
SPC AC 240734

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Fri Dec 24 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected along the West Coast from Washington to
northern California through the day Sunday with isolated lighting
possible in portions of Missouri Sunday evening and Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen off the
Southeast US coast on Sunday. A mid-level shortwave trough will move
from the Four Corners Region Sunday morning to the Great Lakes by
Sunday night. As it moves northeast, the trough will deamplify as it
moves into the building heights across the eastern CONUS. A strong
lee cyclone is expected to develop on Sunday morning in eastern
Colorado. However, as the upper-level system becomes less
pronounced, this surface low will start to fill as it moves
northeast through the day and into the overnight hours.

Strengthening southerly flow is forecast across the warm sector as
the pressure gradient tightens in response to the strengthening lee
cyclone. This will bring an unseasonably moist airmass northward
with low 60s dewpoints as far north as southern Illinois/Indiana by
12Z Monday. Despite this greater low-level moisture, storms are not
expected across most of the warm sector due to a strong capping
inversion and a lack of stronger forcing for ascent to break this
cap. Enough weakening of the cap may occur in portions of Missouri
Sunday evening and Sunday night for isolated storms, but instability
should remain too weak to support a severe threat.

..Bentley.. 12/24/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 250748
SWODY3
SPC AC 250747

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the California Coast
and from eastern Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from somewhere near the
California Coast Monday morning to the southern High Plains by
Tuesday morning. As this trough crosses the Rockies, expect strong
lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado early Tuesday morning. A warm
front is forecast to extend from the surface low across northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Tennessee Valley.

...Eastern Plains into the Ohio Valley...
Significant mass response is expected across the southern Plains as
a result of the upper-level shortwave trough and associated strong
jet streak approaching the region. This will result in a
strengthening low-level jet across much of the Plains and increasing
isentropic ascent north of the warm front between 06Z and 12Z
Tuesday. The strengthening low-level jet will also bring Gulf
moisture northward which is expected to result in some buoyancy to
support thunderstorms. While sufficient for thunderstorms, the
moisture will likely not be great enough to support greater
instability necessary for a severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/25/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 260821
SWODY3
SPC AC 260819

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from the
ArkLaTex into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will be located near the central High
Plains at 12Z Tuesday. This trough will phase with the larger upper
trough which will move through the northern Plains during the day. A
strong surface low will be present across the central Plains on
Tuesday morning, but this surface low will weaken as it moves
northeast. A surface front will initially lift northward as a warm
front, but will stall near the Ohio River by Tuesday evening as the
surface low weakens.

...Portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
Strong isentropic ascent should lead to widespread precipitation
north of the warm front during the day Tuesday as the low-level jet
strengthens and advects moisture into the region. Forecast soundings
show some weak instability, and therefore some lightning may be
possible from this activity. Farther south, a lack of deeper
moisture, and warm temperatures aloft from a remnant EML should
limit storm coverage across much of the warm sector. By Tuesday
night, better quality moisture will start to overspread much of the
warm sector and the warmer mid-level temperatures will start to
cool. Therefore, some storm activity is possible along the surface
front late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, but large-scale
forcing will be limited by this time, and the frontal circulation
may not be strong enough to initiate convection. If any storms can
develop Tuesday night/Wednesday morning along this frontal zone,
they could become strong given the favorable shear and at least weak
buoyancy. However, the uncertainties regarding storm coverage (if
any) and the weak instability preclude the need for severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 12/26/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 270827
SWODY3
SPC AC 270826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible for portions of the Deep South
into the southwestern Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern
High Plains Wednesday morning to the Great Lakes by early Thursday.
A lee cyclone is expected to develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle and
move east along the surface front into the mid-Mississippi Valley
and eventually the western Ozarks by Thursday morning. In addition,
most guidance hints at a weak mid-level shortwave moving out of
northern Mexico and over the warm sector Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

...Deep South into the Southwestern Appalachians...
Most guidance suggests some convection may be ongoing at the
beginning of the period near the Red River across northeast Texas.
In that area, isentropic ascent will be increasing as the low-level
jet strengthens in response to the ejecting mid-level shortwave
trough. As these thunderstorms continue east-northeast, they will
encounter an increasingly unstable airmass across southern Arkansas
and northern Louisiana, where mid 60s dewpoints will be present by
mid to late morning. Supercell wind profiles are expected across the
entire warm sector with 50 to 65 knots of effective vertical shear.
Therefore, this activity could be severe during the morning hours
across portions of southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Regardless of the evolution of this early day storm activity,
additional storm development is expected during the afternoon hours.
Then, the influence of the weak southern stream mid-level shortwave
trough overspreads the warm sector, and the surface low moves out of
the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. There are still
uncertainties with respect to storm coverage, given the
low-amplitude nature of mid-level features and the strength of the
associated surface low. These uncertainties also impact expected
storm intensity due to the influence on the low-level wind field.
Most guidance shows a broad 40 knot low-level jet with a peak around
50 kts eventually moving into eastern Tennessee Wednesday night.
However, the weak surface low results in light surface winds across
much of the warm sector. This would be a limiting factor to the
tornado threat, and especially the significant tornado threat, which
would be greater with a stronger surface low such as is depicted by
the 00Z NAM.

Given the uncertainties mentioned above, a slight risk seems
justified at this time. However, if model guidance trends toward a
stronger system or if more widespread warm sector convection appears
likely, an enhanced risk may be needed in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 12/27/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 280809
SWODY3
SPC AC 280808

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Tue Dec 28 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST....

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to isolated severe storms may occur across portions of
the Southeast on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Mostly zonal mid-upper level flow is forecast across the eastern
CONUS on Thursday with a diffuse surface front extending from the
Carolinas to the Deep South.

...Portions of the Southeast...
Strong to potentially severe storms will likely be ongoing across
portions of Alabama and Georgia Thursday morning. Mid to upper 60s
dewpoints are expected ahead of this activity, which should yield
moderate buoyancy with moderately strong deep layer shear.
Therefore, a marginal severe-weather threat is expected to persist
for at least the first half of the day. However, the low-level jet
will weaken through the day and the surface front will become less
defined. By Thursday afternoon/evening, forcing for ascent will
likely become too limited to support additional convection as the
mid-level ridge starts to build over the Southeast.

...Carolinas...
A few strong storms are possible Thursday afternoon/evening as low
to mid 60s dewpoints advect into the Carolinas. However, despite the
favorable low-level moisture, modest surface heating should limit
instability and thus the potential for severe convection. In
addition, there are concerns regarding storm coverage in the region
as forecast soundings from most guidance show varying degrees of
warmer air around 850mb which could limit convective
coverage/intensity.

..Bentley.. 12/28/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 290841
SWODY3
SPC AC 290840

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX
INTO PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is possible from the Arklatex to the Tennessee Valley
New Years Eve into the early morning hours on Saturday. Storms will
be capable of all severe-weather hazards including large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will be located near the Baja Peninsula
Friday morning and move northeast through the day to the Midwest by
12Z Saturday. This will result in a strengthening surface low in the
southern High Plains during the day Friday which will move along the
surface front into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning.

...Red River vicinity...
Low-level flow will strengthen through the day in response to the
deepening surface low near the TX/OK Panhandles through the day
Friday. This will bring low to potentially mid 60s dewpoints
northward to at least the Red River and possibly overspreading much
of southeast Oklahoma. This low-level moisture will contribute to
weak to potentially moderate instability in the Red River region
Friday evening. As mid-level height falls overspread this region
ahead of the advancing mid-level shortwave trough, storm development
is possible. Strong tropospheric flow will provide a favorable shear
profile supporting supercells. In addition, significant mass
response is anticipated as the mid-level trough approaches and the
surface low deepens and moves eastward. This will lead to a
strengthening low-level jet with over 50 knots of flow by 03Z
Saturday. This may support a tornado threat with any of this
activity, especially if the stronger surface-low solution from the
ECMWF were to verify with stronger and more backed surface flow. It
appears the differences in surface-low intensity are related to the
strength of the mid-level shortwave trough, which is stronger on the
ECMWF with a 105 to 110 knot 500mb jet streak vs. 90 to 95 knots on
the GFS. The shortwave of concern is currently off the California
coast and therefore was not well sampled by the 00Z RAOB network.
Therefore, it is unclear at this time which guidance may be more representative. Additionally, with the further west moisture
advection, the ECMWF develops thunderstorms as far west as Wichita
Falls, Texas. Therefore, the marginal risk reaches back to this area
to cover this threat.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley...
The warm sector is expected to remain capped for most of the day
Friday. However, by Friday evening, the inversion is expected to
erode as height falls overspread the region. Increasing isentropic
ascent in the low levels coupled with broad ascent ahead of an
approaching trough should lead to widespread storm development near
the baroclinic zone. Model guidance has decent agreement that this
front should extend from central/southeastern Oklahoma through
Arkansas to near the Ohio River. Much of this convective activity
will remain elevated on the cool side of the boundary, but most
guidance shows some surface-based development in the warm sector.
The most likely zone for surface-based storms will extend from
central Arkansas into western Tennessee. An enhanced risk was
considered in this region due to the expectation for surface-based
storm development with strong low-level shear which would be
favorable for both damaging winds and tornadoes.

However, there are still uncertainties in the forecast which
preclude an upgrade at this time:

1. Forecast instability is currently on the weaker side.

2. Most guidance shows low-level veered flow.

Both of these factors would not have a large impact on the presence
of severe weather, but they could limit the potential for more
significant severe weather. It remains unclear how impactful this
may be by Friday evening, but there is at least some evidence in the
pattern to support both. The surface low will remain somewhat strung
out along the frontal zone, which would support more front parallel
flow rather than more backed confluent flow. By Friday evening,
there could be mesoscale regions of more backed surface flow, but
those details will not be more clear until the event is closer.
Also, there is some evidence for slightly lower instability than may
otherwise be expected. For several days, model guidance has shown
dewpoints lowering across the warm sector, which appears to be in
response to drier air aloft mixing to the surface. It is unclear how
large of an impact this could be, but there is at least some
evidence of drier air at 850mb near the Yucutan Peninsula at the
MZBZ 00Z RAOB, which could be observational evidence of this drier
air.

...Tennessee Valley...
A broad region of 50+ kt 850mb flow is expected to develop from the
southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley late Friday afternoon into
the evening. This will lead to strengthening isentropic ascent
across much of the warm sector. Scattered thunderstorms are
anticipated across much of the Tennessee Valley Friday evening and
moving north into the overnight hours. It remains unclear how severe
these storms may be, but they will be in an environment with
supercell wind profiles, moderate buoyancy and strengthening
low-level shear. Therefore, at least some severe-weather threat is
possible Friday evening into early Saturday from this activity.

..Bentley.. 12/29/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 300828
SWODY3
SPC AC 300826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread thunderstorms are expected from the ArkLaTex to the
Western Appalachians on New Year's Day. All severe-weather hazards
are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper-level trough will be centered over the
Great Basin at the beginning of the period. This trough will
maintain its positive tilt as it shifts eastward across the Plains
and into the Midwest by 12Z Sunday. A negatively tilted mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly from the southern High Plains
across the Midwest and Ohio Valley Saturday to the northeast by
Sunday morning. A surface reflection of this mid-level shortwave
trough is expected to travel along the front, with a most likely
path from the Ozarks through the Ohio Valley and into the
Mid-Atlantic. However, some timing differences do remain, which
could shift both the track and the intensity of the surface low. The
00Z NAM was is slower than the GFS and ECMWF with the ejecting wave,
which results in a deeper and more northerly low-pressure track.

...ArkLaTex into the western Appalachians...
Severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in portions of
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Arklatex at the beginning of the
period. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast as far north as the
Tennessee/Kentucky border with upper 60s dewpoints across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This should be sufficient for at least
modest destabilization ahead of storm activity even with extensive
cloud cover in place. Greater instability is expected to develop
across Mississippi and Alabama where upper 60s dewpoints are
expected, and where guidance shows at least some breaks in the
clouds, which may allow some surface heating.

Strong shear will be in place across the entire warm sector. Expect
60 to 80 knots of mid-level flow and a broad low-level jet with 50+
knots of flow and a peak of 65 to 70 knots in the Tennessee Valley.
Most 00Z guidance shows more backed surface flow across the warm
sector than what was shown previously due to either a stronger
surface low, a farther south track, or the slower timing. However,
the flow still remains mostly south-southwest across the warm sector
which results in less low-level turning in the lowest 1 km of the
hodograph than would be expected for a greater tornado threat.
Therefore, differences in storm intensity will be primarily driven
by storm mode and regions of locally backed surface flow. The mostly boundary-parallel surface flow will also be less favorable for
discrete supercell development within the warm sector. The strong
shear will favor some supercell structures within linear segments
and clusters, but storm mode may remain quite messy.

A zone of greater severe-weather threat likely exists in the
northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, Tennessee region, but too
many uncertainties remain at this time to add higher probabilities.
These uncertainties include:

1. Questions regarding destabilization north of the Tennessee border
with Alabama and Mississippi.

2. Timing, intensity, and track differences with the surface low.

3. Potentially messy storm mode.

Higher probabilities may be necessary in later outlooks if these
issues resolve and a zone of greater threat becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 12/30/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 310822
SWODY3
SPC AC 310821

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible across portions of the Southeast on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to
the North Carolina/South Carolina coast on Sunday. As this trough
advances east, a surface low will develop along the surface front
somewhere in South Carolina Sunday afternoon/evening. Current
guidance indicates a more developed surface low is not expected
until this area of low pressure moves over the Atlantic.

...Southeast...
A line of storms, possibly severe, is expected to be ongoing at the
beginning of the period from southern Alabama across northern
Georgia and into the western Carolinas. Current model guidance shows
only weak instability ahead of this convection which should temper
storm intensity. However, at least a marginal severe threat will
remain due to strong vertical shear and the potential for supercells
if more robust instability materializes.

If the surface low develops earlier in the day Sunday along the
front, a greater severe weather threat could occur across eastern
South Carolina and southeast North Carolina. However, at this time,
available operational guidance and a majority of ensemble members
wait to develop the surface low until it is over the Atlantic and
thus a greater severe threat would not materialize.

..Bentley.. 12/31/2021

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 010831
SWODY3
SPC AC 010830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of
the southern Florida Peninsula and along the coast of the Pacific
Northwest. No severe weather is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A zonal flow pattern is forecast across much of the continental
United States on Monday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in
place across the southern Florida Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop as weak instability increases during the day in the
vicinity of Miami. Out west, an upper-level trough will move into
the Pacific Northwest on Monday. Some lightning strikes will be
possible along the coasts of Washington and Oregon as the trough
approaches and moves inland. No severe storms are expected across
the continental United States Monday or Monday night.

..Broyles.. 01/01/2022

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 020826
SWODY3
SPC AC 020825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are forecast across the continental United States
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will amplify over the Great Plains on Tuesday
as northwest mid-level flow becomes established across the western
half of the nation. At the surface, a dry airmass will remain over
most of the U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/02/2022

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 030831
SWODY3
SPC AC 030829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur over far eastern North Carolina on
Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected across the
continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will build across
the central U.S. as a cold front advances quickly southward through
the Great Plains. A dry airmass should be in place across most of
the continental United States. The one exception will be in the far
eastern North Carolina where thunderstorms will be possible.
Instability should be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms
are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental
United States Wednesday or Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/03/2022

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 040724
SWODY3
SPC AC 040723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CST Tue Jan 04 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few weak thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the
northern Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough over the Plains will amplify as it moves toward
the MS Valley during the day on Thursday, approaching the Mid
Atlantic by Friday morning. Preceding this trough, a relatively dry
and stable air mass will be in place over the Southeast, with only
50s F dewpoints ahead of a cold front as it moves across the lower
MS Valley during the day. As a result of low-level warm advection
returning above the cool air mass, only weak, elevated instability
is forecast over land, centered over southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle.

..Jewell.. 01/04/2022

$$


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ACUS03 KWNS 050700
SWODY3
SPC AC 050659

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous states on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will exist over the Mid Atlantic on Friday,
moving quickly across the Northeast. To the west, temporary zonal
flow will develop over the Plains as a weaker upper trough moves
across the Great Basin.

At the surface, a sprawling high will be centered over the MS
Valley, shifting east through the period and resulting in stable
conditions. Offshore flow will exist over the Gulf of Mexico and
Atlantic, though 60s F dewpoints will approach the TX Coast by early
Saturday in advance of the western trough. A few thunderstorms may
occur over the western Gulf of Mexico Friday night, and are
currently expected to remain offshore. Otherwise, instability is not
expected to favor thunderstorms over the CONUS.

..Jewell.. 01/05/2022

$$


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