• DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 4 09:03:16 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 040903
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 040901

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0401 AM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021

    Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
    From Thursday to Saturday, the medium-range models move an
    upper-level ridge through the central states as an upper-level
    trough moves eastward from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to
    southern sections of the Eastern Seaboard. A moist airmass is
    forecast ahead of the trough across parts of the Gulf Coast States
    and Carolinas. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this
    moist airmass each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday,
    but no severe threat is expected mainly due to weak instability.

    ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
    On Sunday, the medium-range models move an upper-level trough
    quickly eastward across the southwestern U.S. Model solutions are in
    reasonably good agreement this run with the trough moving into the
    southern Great Plains Sunday evening. As the trough approaches
    Sunday evening, strong moisture advection should allow surface
    dewpoints to rise into the lower to mid 60s F across parts of
    northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma, allowing for a corridor of
    moderate instability to develop. This is similar to the current
    ECMWF solution which shows potential for thunderstorm development in
    central Oklahoma and north-central Texas late Sunday afternoon.
    Thunderstorms would expand in coverage during the early evening due
    to increasing large-scale ascent, with the storms moving eastward
    across eastern portions of the southern Plains.

    Under this scenario, the instability coupled with moderate
    deep-layer shear and strong lift associated with the upper-level
    trough would make severe thunderstorms possible. Supercells with
    large hail and wind damage would be possible, and a tornado threat
    could not be ruled out. However, uncertainty is still substantial
    concerning the exact timing of the trough and moisture return. At
    this time, the models are in good agreement. However, this is the
    first run in which this has been the case. Will wait until more runs
    come in showing the same scenario on Sunday in order to add a severe
    threat area.

    On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward
    into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms would be possible
    ahead of the system across the mid Mississippi, lower Ohio and
    western Tennessee Valleys. Although instability is forecast to be
    relatively weak along the moist axis, an isolated severe threat
    would be possible in areas that heat up the most. At this time,
    uncertainty concerning Monday's scenario is too great to add a
    severe threat area.

    ..Broyles.. 10/04/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 5 08:53:22 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 050853
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 050851

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

    Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
    From Friday to Sunday, the medium-range models move an upper-level
    trough quickly eastward across the southwestern U.S. The models are
    in reasonably good agreement, moving the system into the southern
    and central Plains on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, low-level
    moisture advection should result in a moist corridor from the
    Arklatex north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
    Thunderstorm development will be possible along the western edge of
    the moist gradient Sunday afternoon from northeast Texas into
    eastern Oklahoma and western Missouri. Under this scenario,
    thunderstorms would increase in the evening as a linear convective
    system develops and moves into the mid Mississippi Valley. Although
    deep-layer shear should be strong, the main uncertainty is how
    quickly will moisture return northward and how much instability will
    develop by late Friday afternoon. Severe storms will be possible if
    moderate instability can develop from the Arklatex into the Ozarks.
    And a severe threat could persist into the mid to late evening as
    this convection moves eastward. However, uncertainty is still too
    great to add a threat area for Sunday.

    ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8..
    The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio
    and Tennessee Valleys on Monday and into the Mid-Atlantic on
    Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible ahead
    of the upper-level trough each afternoon and evening from parts of
    the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas. However, instability is expected
    to be insufficient for a severe threat.

    In the western U.S., an upper-level low is forecast to develop in
    the Intermountain West from Tuesday into Tuesday night. Southwest
    mid-level flow in the Great Plains would result in strong moisture
    advection Tuesday evening. If the upper-level low can progress
    eastward far enough, then a severe threat would be possible in the
    parts of the southern High Plains Tuesday evening. However,
    uncertainty concerning many factors is substantial this far out in
    the forecast period.

    ..Broyles.. 10/05/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 6 09:02:29 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 060902
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 060900

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021

    Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
    On Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward
    across the eastern U.S. as southwest mid-level flow becomes
    established in the south-central states. An upper-level trough is
    forecast to move northeastward across the northern Plains on
    Saturday. The models suggest that some instability will develop by
    afternoon from eastern parts of the Dakotas eastward into the upper
    Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorms should form ahead of the upper-level trough. Storms that develop in areas that destabilize
    the most should have a severe threat during the late afternoon and
    evening. However, some uncertainty exists concerning the amount of
    instability that will develop. For this reason, will not add an area
    at this time.

    From Saturday into Sunday, a fast-moving upper-level trough will
    likely move across the southwestern states. Strong moisture
    advection is forecast across the southern and central Plains where
    surface dewpoints could rise into the lower to mid 60s F. In
    response, a narrow corridor of moderate instability could be in
    place by early evening from parts of north-central Texas across
    Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. Under the expected scenario,
    thunderstorms would develop late Sunday afternoon and move eastward
    across this instability corridor during the early to mid evening. In
    addition to moderate instability, deep-layer shear and large-scale
    ascent would be favorable for severe thunderstorm development. The
    environment should support supercells with isolated large hail and
    wind-damage. A conditional tornado threat would also be possible.
    Any severe threat would also impact parts of the Ozarks and Arklatex
    during the overnight period but would probably be more isolated. A
    severe threat area has been added for the expected scenario.

    On Monday, the models move the upper-level trough northeastward into
    the Mississippi Valley but spread is large. The ECMWF moves the
    trough into the north-central states while the GFS keeps the trough
    on a southern track into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Both
    of these solutions have a corridor of maximized low-level moisture
    across the Mississippi Valley. Areas of moderate instability will be
    likely along parts of this corridor on Monday, which would support a
    severe threat. However, the large model spread concerning the track
    of the upper-level trough introduces too much uncertainty to add a
    threat area.

    ...Tuesday/Day 7 to Wednesday/Day 8...
    On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward
    across the southwestern U.S. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
    will likely advect northward across the southern and central Plains.
    In response, a corridor of moderate instability is forecast to
    develop in parts of the southern and central Plains by late Tuesday
    afternoon. However, spread is large on the timing of the upper-level
    trough with the ECMWF much slower than the GFS solution. Deep-layer
    shear should strengthen as the system approaches the southern
    Plains. The instability should make conditions favorable for severe
    storms across parts of the southern central Plains Tuesday afternoon
    and evening. Will add a severe threat area for Tuesday to account
    for this scenario.

    For Wednesday, moderate instability should continue to be in place
    across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe threat
    will also be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially if
    the slower ECMWF solution verifies.

    ..Broyles.. 10/06/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 7 09:14:34 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 070914
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 070912

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0412 AM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021

    Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6...
    The medium-range models are in relatively good agreement on Sunday,
    moving an upper-level trough quickly eastward into the southern High
    Plains. Ahead of the approaching trough, low-level moisture will
    advect northward across east Texas, eastern Oklahoma and western
    Arkansas. As is forecast by the ECMWF, a corridor of moderate
    instability is expected to develop from northeast Texas into eastern
    Oklahoma by early to mid evening. Thunderstorms should first develop
    along a dryline across west-central Oklahoma, with convection
    quickly growing upscale and moving eastward across eastern parts of
    the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest a focused band of
    large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will overspread the
    southern Plains Sunday evening. This should support severe storm
    development, with supercells likely. Supercells with large hail and
    wind damage will be possible. A tornado threat will also be possible
    as the low-level jet ramps up quickly during the early evening.
    However, uncertainties still exist concerning the amount of
    instability that will develop and type of storms that will form. If
    a squall-line organizes quickly, then the favored severe threat
    would be wind damage and large hail. At this time, confidence in a
    severe event is great enough to maintain the threat area and add a
    30 percent contour in for parts of southeastern Oklahoma.

    On Monday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front are
    forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will
    be likely along and ahead of some portions of the front from the
    morning into the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to
    remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, strong deep-layer
    shear will still support severe storm development. The greatest
    potential for severe storms would be across parts of Arkansas and
    southern Missouri during the morning and early afternoon as an MCS
    moves across the region. However, there are uncertainties concerning
    how fast the front will move eastward and the positioning of
    convection at the start of the period. If a linear MCS is ongoing at
    the start of the period, then that would affect the east-to-west
    position of the severe threat area.

    On Tuesday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop across the
    central Rockies as an upper-level trough moves across the
    southwestern U.S. A powerful 80 to 100 knot jet is forecast by the
    GFS to eject northeastward across New Mexico and into the southern
    High Plains. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture and instability
    will rapidly increase according to the GFS. Under this scenario,
    moderate instability would be expected to develop by afternoon in
    much of central/east Texas, Oklahoma and central/ eastern Kansas.
    This would involve numerous thunderstorms developing just to the
    east of a southern and central Plains dryline. Storms would quickly
    obtain a severe threat and move eastward across the region during
    the late afternoon and early to mid evening. Surface dewpoints in
    the lower to mid 60s F along with moderate instability and strong
    deep-layer shear would support supercell development. Supercells
    would be capable of producing large hail, wind damage and large
    hail.

    However, the ECMWF is much slower with the upper-level system. This
    would mean that the event would be delayed until either the
    overnight period on Tuesday or even into Wednesday across the
    southern and central Plains. Given this uncertainty, will maintain a
    15 percent area for Tuesday. If the trough is faster then the threat
    area could need to be upgraded. But if the trough is slower, then a
    threat area would need to be added for Wednesday.

    ...Wednesday Night/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8...
    From Wednesday night into Thursday, the models move the upper-level
    trough northeastward across the north-central states as a cold front
    advances rapidly eastward across the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee
    Valleys. Thunderstorms will be likely along portions of the front
    both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Although a severe
    threat will be possible on both days, uncertainty is substantial at
    this range in the forecast.

    ..Broyles.. 10/07/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 7 09:37:34 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 070937
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 070936

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0436 AM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021

    Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

    CORRECTED FOR WORDING THIRD PARAGRAPH

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Sunday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 7...
    The medium-range models are in relatively good agreement on Sunday,
    moving an upper-level trough quickly eastward into the southern High
    Plains. Ahead of the approaching trough, low-level moisture will
    advect northward across east Texas, eastern Oklahoma and western
    Arkansas. As is forecast by the ECMWF, a corridor of moderate
    instability is expected to develop from northeast Texas into eastern
    Oklahoma by early to mid evening. Thunderstorms should first develop
    along a dryline across west-central Oklahoma, with convection
    quickly growing upscale and moving eastward across eastern parts of
    the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest a focused band of
    large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will overspread the
    southern Plains Sunday evening. This should support severe storm
    development, with supercells likely. Supercells with large hail and
    wind damage will be possible. A tornado threat will also be possible
    as the low-level jet ramps up quickly during the early evening.
    However, uncertainties still exist concerning the amount of
    instability that will develop and type of storms that will form. If
    a squall-line organizes quickly, then the favored severe threat
    would be wind damage and large hail. At this time, confidence in a
    severe event is great enough to maintain the threat area and add a
    30 percent contour in for parts of southeastern Oklahoma.

    On Monday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front are
    forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will
    be likely along and ahead of some portions of the front from the
    morning into the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to
    remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, strong deep-layer
    shear will still support severe storm development. The greatest
    potential for severe storms would be across parts of Arkansas and
    southern Missouri during the morning and early afternoon as an MCS
    moves across the region. However, there are uncertainties concerning
    how fast the front will move eastward and the positioning of
    convection at the start of the period. If a linear MCS is ongoing at
    the start of the period, then that would affect the east-to-west
    position of the severe threat area.

    On Tuesday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop across the
    central Rockies as an upper-level trough moves across the
    southwestern U.S. A powerful 80 to 100 knot jet is forecast by the
    GFS to eject northeastward across New Mexico and into the southern
    High Plains. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture and instability
    will rapidly increase according to the GFS. Under this scenario,
    moderate instability would be expected to develop by afternoon in
    much of central/east Texas, Oklahoma and central/ eastern Kansas.
    This would involve numerous thunderstorms developing just to the
    east of a southern and central Plains dryline. Storms would quickly
    obtain a severe threat and move eastward across the region during
    the late afternoon and early to mid evening. Surface dewpoints in
    the lower to mid 60s F along with moderate instability and strong
    deep-layer shear would support supercell development. Supercells
    would be capable of producing large hail, wind damage and tornadoes.

    However, the ECMWF is much slower with the upper-level system. This
    would mean that the event would be delayed until either the
    overnight period on Tuesday or even into Wednesday across the
    southern and central Plains. Given this uncertainty, will maintain a
    15 percent area for Tuesday. If the trough is faster then the threat
    area could need to be upgraded. But if the trough is slower, then a
    threat area would need to be added for Wednesday.

    ...Wednesday Night/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8...
    From Wednesday night into Thursday, the models move the upper-level
    trough northeastward across the north-central states as a cold front
    advances rapidly eastward across the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee
    Valleys. Thunderstorms will be likely along portions of the front
    both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Although a severe
    threat will be possible on both days, uncertainty is substantial at
    this range in the forecast.

    ..Broyles.. 10/07/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 8 09:01:41 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 080901
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 080859

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021

    Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the
    beginning of the Day 4 period (Monday 10-11), ahead of a cold front
    moving across the southern Plains/lower Missouri and mid Mississippi
    Valleys. At this time, questions regarding the degree of
    pre-frontal destabilization potential exist, such that current
    thinking is that severe risk will remain isolated/limited, and thus
    not supporting an areal highlight.

    Meanwhile, an upper trough digging southeastward across the
    Intermountain West Day 4 is progged to have evolved into a deep
    closed low by Tuesday morning, likely centered in the general
    vicinity of northern Arizona. The low should begin making eastward
    progress through the day -- but the speed of this advance differs
    amongst the medium-range models, with the GFS characteristically
    faster than the ECMWF. Either way, a central/southern High Plains
    lee trough will evolve, to be eventually overtaken by the advancing
    cold front. However, degree -- and timing -- of convective
    development will be influenced by the speed of upper system advance.

    At this time, will maintain 15% probability of severe storms, as shear/instability parameter space likely to exist ahead of the
    surface front should be quite supportive of severe/rotating storms.
    However, some westward shift in the risk area is being included, as
    a nod to the slower -- and likely more realistic -- ECMWF solution.

    Beyond Day 5, continued differences in timing of the upper-low
    ejection cast uncertainty upon timing/evolution of surface features,
    and thus attendant convection. Therefore, no severe weather areas
    will be included due to this uncertainty, from Day 6 through the end
    of the period.

    ..Goss.. 10/08/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 9 08:42:47 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 090842
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 090841

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 AM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

    Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Latest runs of the medium-range models show an upper low -- progged
    to be lying in the vicinity of northwestern Arizona at the start of
    the Day 4 (Tuesday 10-12) period -- to begin an east-northeastward
    advance across the Four Corners states, before reaching the
    central/southern High Plains overnight. As the system advances, an accompanying/sharp surface front will begin crossing the High Plains
    during afternoon/early evening, south of a
    deepening/northward-moving low shifting out of eastern Colorado and
    across the Nebraska Panhandle. Strong low-level southerlies will
    draw moisture northward into the central Plains -- especially into
    the evening, but with ingredients becoming maximized with respect to
    severe weather potential largely after peak heating/during the
    evening hours. Still, thunderstorms will develop near the front --
    likely by late afternoon over the High Plains -- and then grow
    upscale with time, spreading across a region from Nebraska southward
    to the Texas South Plains region into the overnight hours.
    All-hazards severe potential is evident, but will maintain only 15%
    probability at this time due in part to some spatial uncertainty of
    frontal advance, as well as less-than-favorable timing with respect
    to the diurnal cycle.

    Day 5, as the deep/compact upper low shifts north-northeastward
    across the north-central states, the system will become increasingly barotropic, with the surface low occluding and advancing in tandem
    with the upper cyclone. While the weakening cold front will make
    slow eastward progress, diminishing ascent combined with limited
    warm-sector instability suggests much lesser severe potential as
    compared to Day 4.

    As the low weakens and shifts into south-central Canada Day 6,
    remnant troughing over the West will advance slowly eastward toward
    the Plains. However, with models differing with the details of this progression, uncertainty precludes any confident assessment of
    severe potential through the latter half of the period.

    ..Goss.. 10/09/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 10 08:43:52 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 100843
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 100842

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

    Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement Days 4-5
    (Wednesday/Thursday Oct. 13-14), with respect to broad-scale
    features. Models concur that an occluded/vertically stacked system
    will shift north-northeastward across the north-central U.S.
    Wednesday, reaching the international border Thursday morning.
    While some severe potential could evolve across the Upper Midwest,
    widespread precipitation in advance of this system seems likely to
    hinder appreciable destabilization. As such, this would likewise
    suppress overall severe risk, such that no risk area will be
    introduced at this time.

    As the upper low shifts into central Canada Day 5, longer-wavelength
    upper troughing over the West will advance slowly eastward,
    traversing the CONUS through the end of the period.

    Ahead of this trough, convection -- and likely at least low-end
    severe weather potential -- will focus in the vicinity of a cold
    front likewise shifting across the breadth of the country through
    Day 8. However, model differences with respect to timing/location
    of this boundary limits predictability, precluding the highlighting
    of any possible severe-weather risk areas.

    ..Goss.. 10/10/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 11 08:33:59 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 110833
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 110832

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0332 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

    Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    While medium-range models are in general large-scale agreement that
    a slowly progressive upper trough will traverse the entire U.S. from
    west to east through the period, details of the advance of this
    system -- and thus the associated surface pattern, show fairly
    substantial differences.

    Along with the lack of confidence resulting from these model
    differences, it would also appear that instability will be generally
    modest in advance of the progressing surface cold front -- which
    would temper severe risk with this system.

    This combinations of factors precludes inclusion of any
    severe-weather risk areas, despite likelihood for thunderstorms that
    will almost undoubtedly accompany the front as it shifts across the
    U.S. through the period.

    ..Goss.. 10/11/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 12 08:54:04 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 120854
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 120852

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0352 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

    Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Latest runs of the global models -- specifically the GFS and ECMWF
    -- are in reasonably good agreement through the medium-range period,
    with respect to evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern, both
    surface and aloft.

    Both models shift a central U.S. trough steadily eastward, with the
    main spoke of basal/short-wave energy over the Plains at the start
    of the period (Day 4/Friday Oct. 15) progged to reach the
    Midwest/Tennessee Valley by early Day 5, and then to cross the
    Appalachians and East Coast states through early Day 6.

    Accompanying this short-wave progression will be a gradually
    sharpening cold front, trailing southwestward from a developing
    frontal wave over the Midwest region Day 4, which will deepen into a substantial cyclone and shift northward into Quebec Day 5. The
    front is forecast to progress to the west slopes of the Appalachians
    overnight Day 4, and then reach the Middle and Southern Atlantic
    Coasts overnight Saturday (late Day 5).

    Showers and thunderstorms -- and possibly some severe risk -- will
    accompany the front as it progresses eastward. Limited risk for a
    few severe storms may evolve from the Mid Ohio Valley vicinity to
    the Lower Mississippi Valley Day 4, though at this time it appears
    that instability will be limited -- casting uncertainty upon the
    degree of risk that may evolve. As such, will not introduce a risk
    area at this point. Day 5, as the strengthening front crosses the Appalachians, even weaker instability is expected within the
    pre-frontal warm sector. Thus, while convectively enhanced wind
    risk may evolve with low-topped bands of convection in such an
    environment, potential does not appear high enough to warrant 15%
    risk inclusion at this time.

    Once the front -- and accompanying convection -- clears the coast, low-amplitude southern-stream flow is progged to prevail across the
    southern half of the country. Though more amplified/progressive
    northern stream flow is expected, moisture/instability will have
    been shunted southward by the prior frontal intrusion. As such,
    severe risk appears likely to remain low through the latter half of
    the period.

    ..Goss.. 10/12/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 08:59:09 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 130859
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 130857

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range models are in reasonable large-scale agreement into
    about the Day 6 time frame, when details of the evolution and
    advance of an upper trough reaching the West Coast early Day 5 begin
    to deviate within the various model solutions. As this trough
    shifts steadily eastward with time, the aforementioned deviations
    eventually become substantial, rendering an assessment of convective
    risk imprudent through the second half of the period.

    In the mean time, a strong cold front is progged to be shifting east
    of the Appalachians early Day 4 (Saturday 10-15). Models continue
    to suggest no more than minimal (a couple hundred J/kg) low-topped
    CAPE at best, ahead of the front. However, with the upper trough
    taking on increasing negative tilt with time, the dynamic and
    kinematic environment reflects one that often supports local,
    convectively enhanced wind gusts capable of nearing/reaching severe
    levels along the lines/bands of low-topped convection which are
    often largely devoid of lightning.

    Given the expected marginal/low-end nature of the thermodynamic
    environment, a 15% risk area will not be included at this time.
    However, introduction of an initial MRGL/5% probability area may be
    required -- somewhere within a zone stretching from New England to
    the Southeast -- in a subsequent outlook.

    The cold front is forecast to clear the Middle and Southern Atlantic
    Coasts by sunset Day 4, and then should vacate all but perhaps
    Maine, and Florida, by the start of Day 5. With cool/stable high
    pressure spreading across the central and eastern states in the wake
    of this front, severe weather risk will remain low Day 5 and into
    Day 6, followed thereafter by the aforementioned breakdown in
    pattern predictability.

    ..Goss.. 10/13/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 14 08:49:18 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 140849
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 140847

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

    Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper trough will continue advancing eastward across the
    northeastern U.S. and into the Canadian Maritimes/western Atlantic
    Day 4 (Sunday Oct. 17), as an associated cold front likewise departs
    the CONUS. Steadily divergent solutions then become evident in
    medium-range models beginning Day 5 (Monday Oct. 18), as a second
    trough moves onshore over the West.

    The progression of this trough across the western and into the
    central U.S. diverges markedly within the models with time, so as to
    provide virtually no consensus as to areas of potential
    concentrations of convection beyond Day 5. As such, no risk areas
    will be introduced at this time.

    ..Goss.. 10/14/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 15 08:57:24 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 150857
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 150855

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

    Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range models are in better large-scale agreement now, than 24
    hours prior, with respect to their handling of an upper low progged
    to be moving across the western U.S. at the start of the period (Day
    4 -- Monday Oct. 18). This feature -- while weakening with time as
    it progresses steadily eastward across the Intermountain West, is
    expected to reach the central High Plains late Day 5. As it does,
    weak Day 5 surface cyclogenesis is expected over the central High
    Plains.

    As this cyclogenesis occurs, and a trailing front moves across the
    central U.S. through Day 6, showers and thunderstorms will likely
    accompany the system. At this time however, weak warm sector
    destabilization is expected, that should substantially limit severe
    potential with this system.

    Models suggest continued weakening of the upper low Day 6, but at
    this point deviation in model solutions begins to increase.
    Therefore, no assessment of convective potential will be offered for
    the latter portions of the period.

    ..Goss.. 10/15/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 16 08:51:03 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 160850
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 160849

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

    Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement Day 4 (Tuesday Oct.
    19) in progressing an upper low eastward out of the Rockies and
    across the northern and central Plains. This feature will be
    accompanied by an associated surface low/front that will advance
    across the Plains with time. With return of only modest low-level
    moisture (50s dewpoints) ahead of the front, minimal instability
    suggests that any severe risk would remain limited and isolated.

    Modeled evolution of the upper low into Day 5 and beyond begins to
    differ amongst various models, in part due to the degree of
    interaction of the feature with cyclonic flow surrounding a low over
    northern Ontario. While it is apparent that a surface front will
    continue moving eastward across the U.S. through latter stages of
    the period, timing/location/strength of the front cannot be
    confidently ascertained. As such, no assessment of severe weather
    potential is being offered from Day 5 through the end of the period.

    ..Goss.. 10/16/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 17 08:14:35 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 170814
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 170812

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0312 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021

    Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement
    through Day 6 (Friday Oct. 22), with a gradually weakening upper low
    to progress out of the Plains and across the Midwest within
    westerly/cyclonic flow south of an Ontario/Quebec upper vortex.
    However, model agreement begins to break down through the end of the
    period, specifically with respect to the next trough progged to move
    onshore over the West. Substantial differences are apparent within
    the models with respect to evolution and progression of this
    feature, suggesting minimal pattern predictability beyond Day 6.

    In the mean time, a surface cold front is progged to exit the Plains
    and cross the eastern U.S. Days 4-6, in tandem with the aforementioned/weakening upper low. At this time, it appears that
    warm-sector moisture will be scant with this system, and thus any
    severe risk is likely to remain low. As such, no severe-weather
    risk areas will be included.

    ..Goss.. 10/17/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 18 08:36:38 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 180836
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 180834

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

    Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Latest runs of the medium-range models are in reasonably good
    agreement into the Day 6 (Saturday Oct. 23) time frame, after which
    substantial differences emerge -- and amplify -- with respect to
    their depictions of the evolution of large trough residing over the
    eastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska. The models are reasonably
    consistent as an initial low weakens and moves inland across western
    North America Days 4-5, but deviate substantially thereafter in
    subsequent evolution of the longer-wavelength trough. With these
    deviations affecting areas as far east as the Plains by Day 7, no
    assessment of severe potential will be offered through the latter
    half of the period.

    In the mean time, severe-weather risk appears low as a weakening
    cold front moves across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Day
    4, and then the East Coast states Day 5. Models agree that
    instability should remain very limited at best in advance of the
    front, and thus potential for thunderstorms/convective wind damage
    appears likewise minimal. As such, no risk areas will be included
    at this time.

    ..Goss.. 10/18/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 19 08:00:07 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 190759
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 190758

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0258 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

    Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Model consensus is that a low-amplitude omega blocking pattern with
    low severe potential will evolve during the first half of the day
    4-8 period. There is agreement among some model solutions including
    the ECMWF that a substantial upper trough will move into the Plains
    by day 7 or 8, preceded by sufficient moisture return for a severe
    weather threat. However, predictability is too low at this time to
    introduce a categorical risk area.

    ..Dial.. 10/19/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 20 07:47:21 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 200747
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 200745

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0245 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

    Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Severe potential is expected to remain low on Saturday (day 4) with
    an omega block characteristic of the large scale pattern.

    As early as Sunday (day 5) models, and especially the ECMWF, are
    demonstrating poor run-to-run consistency. The deterministic 00Z run
    of the ECMWF now amplifies a southern-stream shortwave trough and
    moves it through the southern Plains during the day with sufficient
    moisture return for a severe weather threat. This is an outlier
    compared to previous runs. GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and most ensemble
    members are much less amplified with this feature. Overall
    predictability is therefore very low beginning day 5 and continuing
    through day 8.

    ..Dial.. 10/20/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 21 08:20:25 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 210820
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 210818

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

    Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    (Day 4) Models are trending toward better agreement and have
    demonstrated some run-to-run consistency regarding the evolution of
    a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to amplify as it
    approaches the southern and central High Plains Saturday night. This
    feature will move through the central/southern Plains Sunday before
    reaching the middle/lower MS Valley Sunday evening. There are still
    some model differences, particularly with regard to the amplitude
    and speed of this system.

    Deepening lee low should be situated over central KS by 12Z Sunday
    with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into western TX.
    A warm front will stretch eastward from the low through northern KS
    and into central MO. Partially modified Gulf air will advect through
    the warm sector beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates resulting in
    moderate instability during the afternoon. A capping inversion will
    delay surface-based thunderstorm initiation until mid afternoon when
    storms will likely develop along the cold front across central
    eastern KS into eastern OK as well as farther east along the warm
    conveyor belt into the lower MS Valley. Vertical wind profiles will
    support organized storms including supercells with potential for all
    severe hazards. Given some lingering model differences, will only
    introduce 15% category for this outlook, but higher probabilities
    might be warranted with better model agreement in later updates.

    (Day 5) - A severe threat will probably persist as this feature
    continues into the TN Valley region Monday and possibly the Middle
    Atlantic region Tuesday. However, model difference become more
    substantial at this time frame, so will defer introduction of any
    categorical risk areas to possibly the next update.

    (Days 6-7) - Models including most ensemble members are in
    reasonable agreement regarding the approach of an upper trough into
    the Plains with robust moisture return toward the early and middle
    part of next week. If these trends continue, a severe risk area may
    be introduced for portions of the central and southern Plains in the
    next 4-8 outlook update.

    ..Dial.. 10/21/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 22 09:02:49 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 220902
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 220901

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0401 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

    Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Monday (day 4) - Some severe threat will probably persist with the
    low amplitude shortwave trough as it continues through the TN and OH
    Valleys during the day and into the Middle Atlantic overnight.
    However, the moist corridor west of the Appalachians is forecast to
    be rather narrow. Timing of this system east of the Appalachians
    will be towards evening into the overnight. There is lingering
    uncertainty regarding the quality of the thermodynamic environment.
    As a result will not introduce a categorical risk area for this
    outlook, but will re-evaluate in later updates.

    Tuesday (day 5) - A strong upper trough is forecast to undergo
    significant amplification as it moves through the southern and
    central Plains. Moisture return and instability in advance of this
    system should become sufficient for severe storms along and ahead of
    the attendant cold front, with greatest threat expected over a
    portion of the central and southern Plains.

    Wednesday (day 6) - A threat for severe storms might persist as the
    upper trough continues through the Southeast States during the day
    and into the evening where gulf moisture return will be greatest.

    ..Dial.. 10/22/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 23 08:58:54 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS48 KWNS 230858
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 230857

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

    Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
    On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward
    across the southern Rockies. Ahead of the system,
    south-southwesterly mid-level flow should be in place across the
    central states. This pattern should result in strong low-level
    moisture advection during the day across the southern and central
    Plains. By late afternoon, a corridor of maximized low-level
    moisture and instability should be located from north-central Texas
    into central Kansas. Thunderstorms should develop along the dryline
    and move eastward into the stronger instability from late afternoon
    into the early evening. The combination of instability and
    deep-layer shear should be strong enough for a severe threat. At
    this time, the models keep instability weak suggesting uncertainty
    exists concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. The current
    thinking is that there will be supercells accompanied by large hail,
    wind damage and a tornado threat. But the magnitude of any severe
    threat remains questionable. Will maintain a 15 percent contour for
    Tuesday.

    On Wednesday, the central U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to
    move into the western Gulf Coast states. A moist airmass ahead of
    the trough should overspread the central Gulf Coast region with a
    cold front advancing eastward across the region during the evening
    and overnight period. At this time, the models suggest that both
    instability and deep-layer shear will be moderate, suggesting that a
    severe threat will be possible. Although there is some spread in the
    model solutions concerning the timing of the upper-level trough,
    confidence is high enough to maintain a 15 percent contour, mainly
    for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

    ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
    On Thursday, the medium-range models move a large upper-level low
    pressure system across the mid Mississippi Valley. Model spread is
    relatively large with some solutions showing a moist airmass in
    place across the eastern Gulf Coast states. Other solutions move a
    cold front eastward away from southern sections of the Eastern
    Seaboard but maintain a moist airmass across parts of the
    Mid-Atlantic. The model differences introduce a large amount of
    uncertainty concerning Thursday's scenario. At this point, a severe
    threat somewhere along the Eastern Seaboard seems possible Thursday
    afternoon and evening, but uncertainty is too high to introduce a
    threat area at this time.

    On Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
    eastern U.S. A potential for thunderstorms may linger across parts
    of the Eastern Seaboard but uncertainty is high concerning any
    severe potential. If the system ends up slower than forecast, then a
    severe threat could develop across parts of the Mid-Atlantic or as
    far north as southern New England. But uncertainty is high at this
    range in the forecast period.

    On Saturday, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to be located across
    much of the central and eastern U.S. suggesting any potential for
    severe storms should be low by that time.

    ..Broyles.. 10/23/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 24 08:59:04 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 240858
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 240857

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

    Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
    An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
    western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday as an associated cold front
    advances quickly eastward. The models are in reasonably good
    agreement moving the front into Louisiana during the afternoon.
    Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s
    F should result in moderate instability across much of the central
    Gulf Coast region. As the cold front approaches from the west during
    the day, convection should be ongoing along and ahead of the
    boundary. These storms are forecast to move eastward across the
    lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and should be
    associated with a severe threat. By evening, a severe convective
    line is forecast to move eastward across the central Gulf Coast
    states. The stronger deep-layer shear should support supercell
    development embedded in the line. A threat for damaging wind gusts
    and tornadoes will be possible with supercells and bowing line
    segments, with the threat persisting into the overnight period.

    On Thursday, the models are in better agreement moving the
    upper-level trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A moist
    airmass is forecast across the eastern Gulf Coast states and
    Carolinas where a severe threat will be possible. The stronger
    thunderstorms that develop along and ahead of a cold front may be
    associated with a wind-damage threat. There is some uncertainty
    concerning the timing of the cold front. For this reason, will not
    add a threat area in the Carolinas or in the Mid-Atlantic at this
    time.

    ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
    On Friday, model forecasts move the upper-level low across the
    Southeast. A front is forecast to move offshore from southern
    sections of the Eastern Seaboard. Further north, moisture advection
    is expected from eastern North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic.
    Strong thunderstorms could develop along a moist axis and move north-northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic coast during the
    afternoon and evening. Although instability and shear parameters
    suggest a wind-damage threat will be possible, uncertainty is
    considerable. The potential for strong storms could persist into
    early Saturday over north sections of the Atlantic Seaboard. Over
    the rest of the nation on Saturday into Sunday, a dry and cool
    airmass is forecast to be in place minimizing the potential for
    strong thunderstorms.

    ..Broyles.. 10/24/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 25 08:53:06 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1635151989-2133-1505
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    ACUS48 KWNS 250853
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 250851

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

    Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5...
    The medium-range models are in good agreement for Thursday. An
    upper-level low is forecast to move across the mid Mississippi
    Valley as a cold front advances eastward through the eastern Gulf
    Coast states. Strong thunderstorms with wind damage potential may
    develop ahead of the front during the day. Additional thunderstorms
    may develop in warm advection regime Thursday night from eastern
    North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic.

    On Friday, the upper-level low is forecast to move northeastward
    into the central Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level
    moisture and instability is forecast to move north-northeastward
    along the Atlantic Coast. This could impact coastal sections of the mid-Atlantic and New England during the day, where a potential for
    strong thunderstorms could develop.

    Due to model uncertainties, predictability concerning severe threat
    coverage is too low to add threat area for either Thursday or
    Friday.

    ...Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8...
    From Saturday to Monday, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to
    dominate across much of the central and eastern United States. This
    should limit the potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8
    period.

    ..Broyles.. 10/25/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 25 09:51:07 2021
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    ------------=_1635155474-2133-1519
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    ACUS48 KWNS 250951
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 250949

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0449 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

    Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5...
    The medium-range models are in good agreement for Thursday. An
    upper-level low is forecast to move across the mid Mississippi
    Valley as a cold front advances eastward through the eastern Gulf
    Coast states. Strong thunderstorms with wind damage potential may
    develop ahead of the front during the day. Additional thunderstorms
    may develop in warm advection regime Thursday night from eastern
    North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic.

    On Friday, the upper-level low is forecast to move northeastward
    into the central Appalachians. A corridor of maximized low-level
    moisture and instability is forecast to move north-northeastward
    along the Atlantic Coast. This could impact coastal sections of the mid-Atlantic and New England during the day, where a potential for
    strong thunderstorms could develop.

    Due to model uncertainties, predictability concerning severe threat
    coverage is too low to add threat area for either Thursday or
    Friday.

    ...Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8...
    From Saturday to Monday, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to
    dominate across much of the central and eastern United States. This
    should limit the potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8
    period.

    ..Broyles.. 10/25/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 26 08:46:42 2021
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    ------------=_1635238006-2133-2125
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    ACUS48 KWNS 260846
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 260845

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

    Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A closed mid-level low will move from the TN Valley to the
    Mid-Atlantic states on Friday (day 4). A narrow window of
    opportunity for destabilization and possibly a severe threat may
    unfold early Friday for parts of the immediate coastal areas of NC.
    A cold front will sweep offshore into the western Atlantic on Friday
    with offshore flow expected through Saturday over the Gulf Coast and
    southeast Atlantic coast. In wake of the eastern U.S. trough, a lower-amplitude/progressive pattern will likely begin Sunday and
    continue into the early part of next week.

    ..Smith.. 10/26/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 27 07:10:19 2021
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    ------------=_1635318626-2133-2768
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    ACUS48 KWNS 270710
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 270708

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0208 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

    Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Quiescent conditions and an unfavorable pattern for severe weather
    will characterize the extended period. An initial mid-level trough
    over the Eastern Seaboard will depart into the western Atlantic and
    be followed by mean mid-level troughing over the north-central U.S.
    into the early part of next week. The lack of appreciable return
    flow and a moist/unstable airmass into the south-central U.S. will
    effectively nullify severe weather potential.

    ..Smith.. 10/27/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 28 07:55:29 2021
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    ------------=_1635407732-2133-3320
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    ACUS48 KWNS 280755
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 280753

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0253 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

    Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    The upper-air pattern will feature a series of troughs moving across
    the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and resulting in a mean trough
    situated over the Great Lakes during the extended period. Surface
    high pressure will generally be located over the central U.S. with
    little in the way of return flow into the northern Gulf Coast during
    the latter part of the period. As a result, a low-potential
    highlight for severe thunderstorm activity is warranted.

    ..Smith.. 10/28/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 29 08:10:30 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1635495034-2133-3821
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS48 KWNS 290810
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 290808

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0308 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

    Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A progressive upper-air pattern will characterize the extended
    period and a low-potential highlight of severe weather for each day.
    Surface high pressure will generally be located over the central
    U.S. with little in the way of return flow into the northern Gulf
    Coast during the latter part of the period.

    ..Smith.. 10/29/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 30 07:44:08 2021
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    ------------=_1635579855-2133-4269
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    ACUS48 KWNS 300744
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 300742

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0242 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

    Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    The upper-air pattern will likely remain unfavorable for organized
    severe thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Saturday (day 4-8)
    timeframe. An initial mean trough situated over the
    Midwest/Northeast will weaken as medium-range model data begins to
    vary considerably by the end of the extended period. The lack of a
    substantial warm sector penetrating the Gulf Coast/Carolinas during
    the period result in a potential-too-low highlight.

    ..Smith.. 10/30/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 31 08:39:45 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1635669589-2133-4476
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS48 KWNS 310839
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 310838

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

    Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range model guidance continues to show a mean mid-level
    trough centered over the Great Lakes during the early half of the
    extended period. The operational EC run-to-run continuity is
    beginning to show the amplification of a mid-level trough over the
    MS Valley by Thursday (day 5) with a mid-level low evolving over the Appalachians by the Friday-Saturday timeframe. This scenario is
    substantially different than GFS-based model guidance during the
    last several runs. Opting for a forecast solution more closely to
    the EC model on Friday and would lend some risk for severe weather
    over parts of the coastal Southeast states. Predictability in this
    scenario is low but severe potential is non-negligible. Towards the
    end of the extended period, low-potential appears to aptly
    characterize the possible pattern of a trough in the East and ridge
    over parts of the interior West.

    ..Smith.. 10/31/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 1 08:27:54 2021
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    ------------=_1635755280-2133-4740
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    ACUS48 KWNS 010827
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 010826

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 AM CDT Mon Nov 01 2021

    Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range model guidance shows a progressive upper-air pattern
    with a trough moving across the Southeast during the early part of
    the extended period. As this trough moves across the FL Peninsula,
    an increased risk for thunderstorms and some potential for several
    stronger storms could occur. Beyond this timeframe, a ridge will
    probably shift eastward into the central/southern Rockies and severe
    potential will be low.

    ..Smith.. 11/01/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 2 07:53:59 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1635839646-2133-4991
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS48 KWNS 020753
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 020752

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 AM CDT Tue Nov 02 2021

    Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Limited severe thunderstorm potential will likely focus on Friday
    (day 4) for the southern half of FL Peninsula in association with a
    mid-level trough forecast to move from the central Gulf of Mexico to
    the Peninsula. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the
    magnitude of forecast buoyancy and subsequent intensity of
    thunderstorm activity. By this weekend, a progressive upper-air
    pattern will influence weather conditions across the CONUS and
    severe potential will likely remain very low due to generally
    cool/stable conditions through next Tuesday (day 8).

    ..Smith.. 11/02/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Nov 3 07:56:11 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1635926175-129950-67
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    ACUS48 KWNS 030756
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 030754

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0254 AM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021

    Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A quiet upper-air pattern for severe weather will encompass much of
    the extended period. A series of progressive mid-level shortwave
    troughs will move across the northern half of the contiguous United
    States beginning this weekend through Tuesday (day 7). Recent model
    guidance indicates a powerful jet will begin to nose into the Great
    Plains by Wednesday (day 8) with an associated surface low.
    Southerly low-level flow in response to the developing surface
    cyclone will advect moisture north into the southern-central Great
    Plains and Ozarks. Predictability is still low regarding specific
    details by mid week next week, thus a predictability-too-low
    highlight is warranted.

    ..Smith.. 11/03/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 4 08:00:52 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1636012855-129950-305
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    ACUS48 KWNS 040800
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 040758

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0258 AM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

    Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A progressive upper-air pattern will characterize the extended
    period with a series of low-amplitude troughs moving across the West
    and into the central U.S. Given the shorter wavelength of the
    disturbances and model run-to-run variability that exists by mid
    week next week, will highlight Wednesday-Thursday (days 7-8) with a predictability-too-low highlight.

    ..Smith.. 11/04/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 5 08:39:23 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1636101570-129950-589
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    ACUS48 KWNS 050839
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 050837

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

    Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A progressive mid/upper level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8
    period. An upper shortwave trough will migrate across the Rockies to
    the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 6/Wed. Meanwhile, a
    larger-scale upper trough will develop over the Plains on Day
    6-7/Wed-Thu and spread across the central U.S. through the end of
    the period. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts
    of the central/southern Plains ahead of a cold front on Wed/Thu, but
    severe potential appears low given limited moisture/instability.
    Widespread precipitation will likely shift eastward across parts of
    the central/eastern U.S. through Days 7-8/Thu-Fri as the upper
    trough and a surface cold front progress eastward. However, severe thunderstorms are not expected given poor boundary-layer moisture
    and limited instability.

    ..Leitman.. 11/05/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Nov 6 08:50:04 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 060849
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 060848

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0348 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

    Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    The main feature of the Day 4-8 period will be a deepening mid/upper
    trough over the Plains on Day 5/Wed. The trough will shift slowly
    eastward to the eastern U.S. through Day 7/Fri while an upper low
    develops over Manitoba and shifts eastward toward James Bay during
    the same time. This will confine stronger forcing/deep-layer
    southwesterly flow over the Midwest and points north/northeast, and
    offset from shallow Gulf moisture return across the
    south-central/southeastern states. Thunderstorm activity will likely
    increase from parts of the southern Plains into the Southeast Days
    5-7/Wed-Fri as a surface cold front shifts eastward. Some modest
    moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains on Wednesday
    as weak lee cyclogenesis develops in response to the ejecting upper
    trough. This could provide enough instability for a few stronger
    storms near the surging cold front, but overall severe potential
    appears too marginal for probabilities at this time. Low-level
    moisture will increase across the Southeast toward the end of the
    week as the upper trough and surface cold front shift eastward, but
    severe potential appears low as stronger forcing will remain north
    of the region and widespread precipitation/cloud cover limits
    destabilization.

    ..Leitman.. 11/06/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Nov 7 09:23:10 2021
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    ------------=_1636276994-129950-1284
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    ACUS48 KWNS 070923
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 070921

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

    Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A mid/upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east toward
    the MS Valley on Day 4/Wed. As this occurs, a surface low will
    develop over the central/southern Plains and strengthen as it shifts east/northeast toward the upper MS Valley by Day 5/Thu. This will
    bring a cold front east/southeast across the southern Plains and
    mid-MS valley. Modest Gulf moisture will stream northward ahead of
    the front across parts of eastern KS/OK/TX into the Ozarks, aiding
    in weak destabilization and increasing potential for thunderstorms.
    While a couple of strong storms could develop, overall severe
    potential appears too marginal for probabilities at this time.

    An upper low is then forecast to develop over the Upper Midwest on
    Day 5/Thu while the larger-scale trough slowly pivots eastward
    through the period across the eastern half of the CONUS. Showers and
    isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast into the
    Mid-Atlantic during this time as the surface cold front also shifts
    eastward. However, severe potential appears low as widespread
    precipitation and cloud cover limit destabilization near the front.

    ..Leitman.. 11/07/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 8 09:26:19 2021
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    ------------=_1636363585-129950-1622
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS48 KWNS 080926
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 080924

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021

    Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper trough is forecast to extend from the northern Plains
    toward the lower MS Valley early Day 4/Thu. A closed low will pivot east/southeast across the Dakotas and Upper Midwest at the same time
    as the larger-scale trough spreads eastward across the Midwest and
    Southeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from
    the mid-MS Valley toward southern TX Thursday morning, and advance
    eastward across the Midwest and Southeast. A series of shortwave
    impulses embedded in the larger-scale trough will maintain a mean
    trough across the eastern U.S. through much of the period, and the
    surface cold front will move offshore into the Gulf of Mexico and
    western Atlantic on Day 5/Fri. While thunderstorm potential will
    increase across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast on Thursday,
    overall severe potential appears limited due to widespread cloudiness/precipitation limiting instability. Once the front pushes
    offshore, the persistent eastern upper trough and surface high
    pressure over central portions of the CONUS will preclude severe
    thunderstorm potential through the end of the period.

    ..Leitman.. 11/08/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 9 09:46:27 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1636451191-129950-1923
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    ACUS48 KWNS 090946
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 090944

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 AM CST Tue Nov 09 2021

    Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A mid/upper trough will persist for most of the Day 4-8 period
    across the eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure will spread from the
    Plains eastward into the Midwest and maintain continental
    trajectories, resulting in meager boundary-layer moisture and
    limiting thunderstorm potential. Medium-range guidance is consistent
    that toward the end of the forecast period an upper trough will move
    inland over the western U.S. and an upper ridge will overspread the
    Plains. This should allow for at least modest Gulf return flow
    across TX ahead of the ejecting western upper trough around Day
    8/Tue into the middle of next week. This could bring some increasing
    potential for thunderstorms across parts of the south-central U.S.
    around Day 8/Tue or just beyond the end of the forecast period,
    though severe potential still appears limited.

    ..Leitman.. 11/09/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Nov 10 09:38:33 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1636537118-129950-2173
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    ACUS48 KWNS 100938
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 100936

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0336 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

    Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A series of shortwave upper troughs will migrate through
    larger-scale flow through at least Day 6/Mon, reinforcing a mean
    upper level trough from the MS Valley eastward. An upper ridge over
    the western U.S. will begin to eject eastward into the Plains on Day
    6/Mon while another upper trough develops over the western U.S.
    through Day 7/Tue before emerging over the Plains and Upper Midwest
    around midweek. Persistent surface high pressure over much of the
    CONUS will maintain continental trajectories and Gulf moisture will
    remain well offshore, limiting thunderstorm potential through Day
    7/Tue. Some increasing potential for thunderstorms will exist around
    Day 8/Wed across parts of the southern/central Plains vicinity as
    the western trough ejects eastward. Overall, severe potential
    appears low through the forecast period.

    ..Leitman.. 11/10/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 11 09:45:09 2021
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    ------------=_1636623913-129950-2531
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    ACUS48 KWNS 110945
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 110943

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

    Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A progressive upper level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8
    period. An upper level trough will develop eastward from the MS
    Valley to the western Atlantic through Day 5/Mon. A brief period of
    upper level ridging will spread across the Plains and the eastern
    U.S. on Day 6/Tue before another upper shortwave trough shifts east
    from the northern Rockies into the Plains and Upper Midwest on Day
    7/Wed and the eastern third of the CONUS by Day 8/Thu. Surface high
    pressure will persist over the Plains into the central/southern U.S.
    for much of the period. This will keep Gulf moisture well offshore
    and thunderstorm potential will be low. As the upper trough ejects
    east into the Plains and Upper Midwest late in the period, some
    modest moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains in
    response to a developing lee trough. While this could bring
    increasing chances for thunderstorms to parts of the southern Plains
    vicinity, severe potential still appears low/too uncertain at this
    time.

    ..Leitman.. 11/11/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 12 08:01:49 2021
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    ------------=_1636704116-129950-2902
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS48 KWNS 120801
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 120800

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0200 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

    Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper trough over the eastern states should move eastward and
    over the western Atlantic on Day 4/Monday, with minimal severe
    potential evident across the CONUS due to a lack of low-level
    moisture and instability. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably
    good agreement that another upper trough should amplify as it ejects
    from the western states across the Plains around the middle of next
    week. Modest low-level moisture return appears possible by Day
    6/Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains ahead of a cold
    front. However, forecast instability appears rather weak ahead of
    the front. And, with the better forcing associated with the upper
    trough probably remaining farther north over the central/northern
    Plains, organized severe potential on Wednesday still appears quite
    low. This upper trough should continue to develop eastward across
    the central/eastern states late next week, but limited low-level
    moisture return across these regions suggest the overall potential
    for severe storms will likely remain low across the CONUS through
    Day 8/Friday.

    ..Gleason.. 11/12/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Nov 13 08:01:59 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1636790521-129950-3295
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS48 KWNS 130801
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 130800

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0200 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021

    Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper trough should move from the northern Rockies across the northern/central Plains on Day 4/Tuesday. Modest low-level moisture
    return should continue across parts of the southern Plains into the
    lower/mid MS Valley through Day 5/Wednesday, and storms may develop
    across parts of these regions by Wednesday evening. But, instability
    is forecast to remain very weak ahead of an eastward-moving cold
    front, and this will likely keep any organized severe potential
    quite low. There is some uncertainty regarding the evolution of the
    upper trough from the central into eastern CONUS late next week, but
    limited moisture return and meager instability ahead of this feature
    suggest the overall potential for severe storms should remain low
    across the CONUS through the end of the period.

    ..Gleason.. 11/13/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Nov 14 08:02:04 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1636876926-129950-3794
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    ACUS48 KWNS 140801
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 140800

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0200 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021

    Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper trough is forecast by medium-range guidance to continue
    advancing eastward across the central/eastern CONUS from Day
    4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. Even with modest low-level
    moisture return ahead of an attendant cold front, it appears very
    unlikely that sufficient instability will develop across the warm
    sector to support an organized severe risk. In the wake of this
    upper trough, there are some indications in guidance that gradual
    amplification of the mid-level westerlies may occur over parts of
    the western/central CONUS by next weekend. If a pronounced
    upper-level trough can eventually develop over the Plains in tandem
    with increasing low-level moisture across the southern Plains and
    lower MS Valley, then some severe threat may materialize by late
    next weekend across these areas. Regardless, confidence in the
    evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS remains low
    at this extended time frame, suggesting overall low predictability.

    ..Gleason.. 11/14/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 15 09:01:44 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1636966909-129950-4244
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    ACUS48 KWNS 150901
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 150900

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

    Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A highly amplified upper trough should move quickly eastward from
    the MS Valley across the eastern CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. Latest
    medium-range guidance continues to indicate that low-level moisture
    return ahead of a related surface cold front will remain
    insufficient to support even weak instability across the warm
    sector. Accordingly, the overall severe threat on Thursday appears
    low across the CONUS. This upper trough is forecast to continue
    eastward across the remainder of the East Coast and into the western
    Atlantic on Day 5/Friday. The surface cold front associated with
    this upper trough should move southward across the FL Peninsula,
    with little severe potential evident. In the wake of this upper
    trough, gradual amplification of the mid-level westerlies may occur
    by the upcoming weekend across parts of the western/central CONUS.
    But, it appears unlikely that robust low-level moisture will advance
    inland over the southern Plains or Southeast, suggesting continued
    low severe potential across the CONUS through early next week.

    ..Gleason.. 11/15/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 16 09:02:14 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1637053338-129950-4669
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    ACUS48 KWNS 160902
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 160900

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021

    Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that an upper trough
    will continue to move quickly eastward over the Mid-Atlantic and
    Northeast states on Day 4/Friday. Substantial low-level moisture
    will be confined to parts of the FL Peninsula to the south of a
    front in this time frame, with little severe potential evident.
    Generally westerly mid-level flow across much of the CONUS on Day
    5/Saturday should undergo gradual amplification as another
    large-scale upper trough potentially develops over the central CONUS
    by Day 6/Sunday. Some low-level moisture may return northward over
    portions of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley over the
    upcoming weekend ahead of this upper trough and a related surface
    cold front. However, instability is currently forecast to remain
    quite weak, and the overall severe potential across these regions
    still appears quite low. By early next week, the upper trough should
    advance over the eastern CONUS, although confidence in its evolution
    remains limited. Regardless, the potential for organized severe
    storms appears low across the CONUS through early next week, owing
    to only modest low-level moisture return ahead of an advancing cold
    front.

    ..Gleason.. 11/16/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Nov 17 09:01:50 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1637139728-129950-5088
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    ACUS48 KWNS 170901
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 170900

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021

    Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Quasi-zonal mid-level flow across a majority of the CONUS early this
    upcoming weekend should transition to a more amplified pattern as an
    upper trough is forecast to develop and quickly strengthen over the central/eastern states by Day 6/Monday. This upper trough may become
    highly amplified and possibly even become a closed low over the East
    Coast by Day 7/Tuesday. Regardless of this feature's eventual
    evolution, medium-range guidance remains consistent in showing a
    lack of substantial moisture return inland from the Gulf of Mexico,
    which will likely limit both the development of meaningful
    instability and potential for organized severe thunderstorms across
    the CONUS through the extended forecast period.

    ..Gleason.. 11/17/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 18 09:01:54 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1637226119-2012-219
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    ACUS48 KWNS 180901
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 180900

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021

    Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A large-scale upper trough should quickly amplify from Day 4/Sunday
    into Day 5/Monday across the central/eastern CONUS. Moisture return
    ahead of this feature is still expected to remain too meager to
    support meaningful instability, and the potential for organized
    severe thunderstorms should remain low. The consensus of latest
    medium-range guidance continues to suggest that this upper trough
    will become a closed low along/near the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Day
    6/Tuesday. Regardless, a strong cold front associated with this
    system will likely have moved well offshore from both the Atlantic
    and Gulf Coast regions, with negligible severe potential evident.
    Around the middle of next week, another upper trough may develop
    over the western CONUS and advance towards the Rockies. Some
    guidance indicates that substantial low-level moisture may return
    northward across parts of the southern Plains (mainly parts of TX)
    by Day 8/Thursday. If this occurs, then there may be enough
    instability to support robust convection and potentially a severe
    threat across this region. Regardless, confidence in the evolution
    of this upper trough and in sufficient low-level moisture return
    remains limited at this extended time frame, suggesting overall low predictability.

    ..Gleason.. 11/18/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 19 09:34:33 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1637314478-2012-487
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    ACUS48 KWNS 190934
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 190932

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0332 AM CST Fri Nov 19 2021

    Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an amplified western
    CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough upper pattern will be in place
    early D4/Monday morning. This upper pattern is forecast to remain
    progressive throughout much of the period, with the western CONUS
    upper ridge moving through the Plains/MS Valley on D5/Tuesday and
    much of the eastern CONUS on D6/Wednesday.

    A more broadly cyclonic pattern will exist in its wake over the
    western CONUS on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday before more deepening/amplification of this troughing occurs late D6/Wednesday
    into D7/Thursday. Moisture return is anticipated across the southern
    Plains on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday ahead of this trough. Showers
    and thunderstorms currently appear likely across portions of the
    southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on D7/Thursday and D8/Friday as
    the trough and associated cold front interact with this increasing moisture/buoyancy. Some severe storms are possible, but confidence
    in coverage and location is low.

    ..Mosier.. 11/19/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Nov 20 07:59:09 2021
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    ------------=_1637395154-2012-733
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    ACUS48 KWNS 200759
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 200757

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0157 AM CST Sat Nov 20 2021

    Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Consensus within the medium-range guidance suggests a deep upper
    trough will be in place from central Quebec southward along the
    Eastern Seaboard early D4/Tuesday morning. Upper ridging is expected
    in the wake of this trough over the central CONUS with upper
    troughing over the western CONUS. This trough/ridge/trough is
    forecast to progress eastward, with the westernmost trough resulting
    in a broadly cyclonic pattern over the western CONUS on D4/Tuesday
    and D5/Wednesday. Some deepening/amplification of this troughing is
    expected late D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday, with the latest
    guidance suggesting the development of a closed circulation off the
    coast of the Baja Peninsula.

    Moisture return is anticipated across the southern Plains on
    D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday ahead of a shortwave trough embedded
    within the larger parent trough. Showers and thunderstorms currently
    appear likely across portions of the southern Plains and on
    D6/Thursday as this shortwave and associated cold front interact
    with the increasing moisture/buoyancy. Run-to-run variability
    limits forecast confidence after D6/Thursday, but the latest
    guidance currently indicates low potential for severe storms on
    D7/Friday and D8/Saturday.

    ..Mosier.. 11/20/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Nov 21 09:23:16 2021
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    ------------=_1637486598-2012-899
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    ACUS48 KWNS 210923
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 210921

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 AM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

    Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that expansive upper
    troughing will be in place across the western and central CONUS
    early D4/Wednesday. Several shortwave troughs are forecast to move
    within this parent upper trough as it gradually moves eastward.
    Guidance has trended towards a more split-flow solution, with a more progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern stream
    across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Thursday. At the
    same time, a closed cyclone is forecast to develop off the coast of
    the Baja Peninsula.

    A surface low associated with the progressive northern-stream
    shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of it while an
    attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across much of the Plains
    on D4/Wednesday and through the remainder of the southern Plains and
    the MS and OH Valleys on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible in
    the vicinity of this front as it moves across OK and TX, modest
    buoyancy and displacement south/east of the stronger flow should
    limit severe-storm chances.

    ..Mosier.. 11/21/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 22 09:32:53 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1637573580-2012-1122
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    ACUS48 KWNS 220932
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 220931

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0331 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021

    Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A cold front is forecast to stretch from Lower MI southwestward into
    the TX Hill country early D4/Thursday, with continued southeastward
    progression expected throughout the day. Thunderstorms are possible
    near this front, but limited buoyancy and displacement south of the
    stronger flow aloft should limit severe storm coverage.

    Stable conditions are expected across the central and eastern CONUS
    in the wake of this front on D5/Friday. Another front is expected to
    move through the Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, reinforcing
    the already stable conditions.

    ..Mosier.. 11/22/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 23 09:39:00 2021
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    ------------=_1637660342-76136-160
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    ACUS48 KWNS 230938
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 230937

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021

    Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Guidance is in good agreement that a cold front will extend from the
    VA Tidewater south-southwestward to the FL Panhandle early
    D4/Friday. Continued eastward progression of this front will take it
    quickly off the remainder of the Eastern Seaboard and through much
    of FL on D4/Friday. Stable conditions are expected in wake of this
    front across the CONUS.

    A belt of moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend from the
    Pacific Northwest eastward through the northern Plains and then
    southeastward across central portions of the eastern CONUS. Several
    shortwave troughs are expected to progress through this stronger
    flow throughout the period, with each shortwave accompanied by a
    surge of dry continental air. As such, stable conditions are
    expected to prevail into at least early next week, with very low
    potential for severe thunderstorms.

    ..Mosier.. 11/23/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Nov 24 08:49:11 2021
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    ------------=_1637743755-76136-384
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    ACUS48 KWNS 240849
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 240847

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021

    Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a split-flow upper
    pattern will be in place across the CONUS early D4/Saturday. A
    shortwave trough is expected to progress through the northern
    stream, moving from northern/central Plains across the Mid MS Valley
    on D4/Saturday and through the Mid-Atlantic Coast early D5/Sunday.
    Another shortwave through will follow in the wake of first, with
    this train of shortwaves helping to maintain the upper troughing
    across the eastern CONUS int early next week.

    An upper low over northwest Mexico early D4/Saturday will progress
    slowly northeastward within the weak southern stream, gradually
    devolving into an open wave over the southern Plains by late
    D5/Sunday.

    Guidance differs on the timing and strength, but a series of
    shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the northern stream
    during the first half of next week. Each shortwave will be
    accompanied by a surge of dry continental air and stable conditions
    are expected to prevail through the middle of next week, with very
    low potential for severe thunderstorms.

    ..Mosier.. 11/24/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 25 09:32:53 2021
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    ------------=_1637832779-76136-591
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    ACUS48 KWNS 250932
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 250931

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0331 AM CST Thu Nov 25 2021

    Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A pair of shortwave troughs, one over the Upper OH Valley and one
    entering the Lower MS Valley, are expected to progress eastward
    within the cyclonic flow aloft anticipated to be in place across the
    eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday. These shortwaves should move off the
    East Coast by early D5/Monday morning, with an expansive belt of
    northwest flow aloft in their wake extending from the Pacific
    Northwest to off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast. A series of
    shortwave troughs is forecast to move through this flow aloft,
    helping to reinforce the dry/stable conditions east of the Rockies.
    This overall pattern evolution is expected to result in a very low
    potential for severe thunderstorms.

    ..Mosier.. 11/25/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 26 08:31:56 2021
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    ------------=_1637915523-76136-836
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS48 KWNS 260831
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 260830

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

    Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A weak belt of high-level westerlies may persist from the
    subtropical eastern Pacific through the Gulf of Mexico and Florida
    Peninsula vicinity through this period. However, models suggest
    that a belt of mid/upper westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude
    Pacific will remain much more prominent. Within this regime, it
    appears that broad mid-level ridging will persist across the
    northern Pacific coast into much of the northern Great Plains, while
    downstream troughing only gradually loses amplitude and broadens
    across the eastern U.S. into western Atlantic.

    Beneath resultant confluent mid/upper flow between the two regimes,
    cold surface high pressure appears likely to maintain relatively dry
    and stable conditions across much of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast
    and Gulf of Mexico into the middle to latter portion of next week.
    Thereafter, models indicate that there may be substantive
    amplification of troughing within the mid-latitude westerlies across
    the Mississippi Valley vicinity by late next week. While this
    probably will be accompanied by the development of southerly or
    southwesterly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico, low-level
    moistening supportive of appreciable severe thunderstorm potential
    seems unlikely through at least next Friday (December 3rd).

    ..Kerr.. 11/26/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Nov 27 08:52:33 2021
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    ------------=_1638003156-76136-1184
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    ACUS48 KWNS 270852
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 270850

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0250 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

    Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    It appears that mid/upper flow across North America may de-amplify
    by the middle of next week, in the wake of a deep cyclone migrating north-northeast of the Canadian Maritimes. However, guidance
    suggests that the mean pattern may remain at least broadly cyclonic
    east of the Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic, downstream of
    broad ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into the
    Rockies and Great Plains. As a weaker belt of westerlies also
    lingers from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the Gulf of
    Mexico and Florida Peninsula, a generally confluent mid-level regime
    may maintain potentially cold surface high pressure across much of
    the Gulf Coast and Southeast, inhibiting boundary-layer moistening
    over the Gulf of Mexico and substantive inland moisture return.
    Even if significant renewed amplification within the westerlies were
    to take place east of the Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic
    Seaboard late this week into next weekend, as at least some model
    output has indicated, it is not clear that low-level moistening off
    the Gulf of Mexico and/or western Atlantic will be sufficient to
    support an appreciable risk of severe weather by that time.

    ..Kerr.. 11/27/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Nov 28 08:02:11 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1638086538-76136-1528
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS48 KWNS 280802
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 280800

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0200 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021

    Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Latest medium-range guidance suggests that the predictability of
    short wave developments within the large-scale pattern may be fairly
    low through this period. However, in the mean, ensemble output
    generally indicates that deep-layer troughing will probably remain
    focused east of the middle/upper Mississippi Valley, while low-level
    ridging remains prominent across much of the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf
    coast vicinity. It appears that there may be at least one
    substantive mid-level perturbation accompanied by reinforcement of
    potentially cool/dry, if not particularly cold, air across the
    central and eastern U.S. during the middle to latter portion of the
    coming week, and another to the east of the Rockies sometime next
    weekend or thereafter. For any appreciable risk of severe
    thunderstorms to develop, a substantive/deep moisture return off the
    Gulf of Mexico likely will be needed, and this remains questionable
    through late next weekend.

    ..Kerr.. 11/28/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 29 08:17:14 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1638173839-76136-1849
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    ACUS48 KWNS 290817
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 290815

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021

    Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range models indicate that several strengthening
    perturbations will emerge late this week through next weekend, from
    a strong mid/upper jet initially rounding the crest of broad ridging
    (across the eastern Pacific through the northern U.S. Great Plains),
    into broad troughing (east of the upper Mississippi Valley through
    the western Atlantic). As they dig through the mid-level troughing,
    it appears that they will contribute to strengthening surface
    cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley and parts of northern
    New England into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, it appears
    that another intrusion of cold/dry air will overspread most areas
    east of the Rockies by late next weekend.

    Preceding the cold front, latest guidance is suggestive that a
    corridor of modest destabilization is possible on Friday, associated
    with boundary-layer moisture return along a weak surface trough,
    roughly near/east of the Interstate 35 corridor of south central
    through north central/northeast Texas. This may coincide with
    increasing forcing for ascent, associated with a perturbation
    emerging from persistent weak upper troughing across the subtropical
    eastern Pacific/northern Mexican Plateau, to support some risk for
    strong thunderstorm development. Although a mid-level speed maximum
    might contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
    convection (given sufficient destabilization), low-level wind fields
    are forecast to remain generally weak, which probably will tend to
    minimize the severe weather potential.

    ..Kerr.. 11/29/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 30 08:21:54 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1638260519-76136-2169
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    ACUS48 KWNS 300821
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 300820

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021

    Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range model output indicates that a substantially more
    amplified/blocked regime may evolve across the southern mid-latitude
    and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern portions of North
    America, including a large-scale trough and/or developing closed low
    near Baja early next week. However, there might not be significant
    change to the northern mid-latitude westerlies, with strong flow
    persisting through much of the period in a broadly anticyclonic belt
    across the eastern Pacific into the northern U.S. Great Plains,
    before transitioning to broadly cyclonic east of the Mississippi
    Valley. Although a couple of strengthening short wave perturbations progressing through this regime might be accompanied by thunderstorm development across parts of the south central U.S., it appears that
    trailing reinforcing intrusions of cool and/or dry air will preclude
    deep boundary-layer moistening over much of the Gulf of Mexico.
    This seems likely to continue to negate, or at least temper, the
    risk for severe weather.

    ..Kerr.. 11/30/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 1 08:44:57 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1638348301-76136-2539
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    ACUS48 KWNS 010844
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 010843

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 AM CST Wed Dec 01 2021

    Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range models indicate a significant amplification within the
    southern branch of a developing split flow across the eastern
    Pacific by late this week, leading to the evolution of a more
    amplified, blocked regime across the southern mid-latitude and
    subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern portions of North
    America by early next week. It does appear, however, that much of
    the rest of the U.S. will remain under the influence of one
    prominent branch emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific,
    which probably will include a number of progressive embedded short
    wave troughs.

    The predictability of these perturbations remains unclear, but
    recent runs of the GFS/GEFS and ECWWF/ECENS suggest that one will
    rapidly dig east-southeast of the northern Rockies late this
    weekend, before turning eastward across the northern Atlantic coast
    early next week. It appears that this may be trailed by a similar
    perturbation at a somewhat lower latitude, which may support
    significant surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the southern
    Rockies into the lower Ohio Valley through the early to middle
    portion of next week.

    Of primary concern, as depicted by latest (01/00z) model output,
    this may be accompanied by substantive strengthening of low-level
    wind fields (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across
    parts of the southern Great Plains into the lower Ohio Valley.
    Although this is currently forecast to have a substantial
    southwesterly to westerly component, it might not be out of the
    question that an influx of moisture, off a modifying boundary layer
    over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, could contribute to a corridor
    of weak boundary-layer destabilization across parts of the Mid South (particularly the southeastern Arkansas/northern
    Mississippi/western Tennessee vicinity). If this occurs, coincident
    with the very strong low-level (and deep-layer) shear, there appears
    at least some potential for the environment to become conducive to
    organized thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging
    wind gusts and a few tornadoes late next Tuesday into Wednesday.
    However, given the uncertainties concerning the evolving pattern
    (particularly at the Days 7/8 time frame) and the quality of return
    flow from the Gulf of Mexico, the probabilities for an organized
    severe weather event still seem relatively low.

    ..Kerr.. 12/01/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 2 09:31:05 2021
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    ------------=_1638437471-76136-2937
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    ACUS48 KWNS 020931
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 020929

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 AM CST Thu Dec 02 2021

    Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A highly amplified regime, particularly in the southern mid- and
    subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, appears likely to
    persist late this coming weekend through early next week. This may
    include the evolution of a prominent mid/upper high over the
    subtropics, before it becomes suppressed as a significant short wave
    impulse progresses through a consolidating belt of mid-latitude
    westerlies to its north, during the middle to later portions of next
    week. However, models continue to exhibit considerable spread
    concerning short wave developments within and downstream of this
    regime, across North America, through this period.

    It does appear that there may be several significant waves progress
    through the belt of stronger flow downstream of the Pacific,
    initially near or just south of the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity,
    but forecast to gradually shift south of much of the northern tier
    states by late week. Guidance suggests that each may have the
    potential to support strong surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
    Rockies, but the predictability of these features appears low.

    For example, latest model output now appears substantially stronger
    with cyclogenesis accompanying a lead short wave, from the northern
    Great Plains through the Great Lakes and eastern Canadian provinces
    on Sunday and Monday. Although not optimally timed with regard to
    potential for a substantive return flow of moisture from the Gulf of
    Mexico, current depictions of the cyclogenesis suggest that the risk
    for severe weather may not be completely negligible ahead of an east-southeastward advancing cold front. This could include
    portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, where a line of
    low-topped boundary-layer based convection aiding the downward
    transfer of potentially damaging winds might not be entirely out of
    the question.

    Severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the lower Mississippi
    Valley through Mid South for next Tuesday and Wednesday is now more
    unclear, as the last couple runs of the ECMWF have been considerably
    less amplified with surface frontal wave development emerging from
    the southern Great Plains.

    ..Kerr.. 12/02/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 3 09:21:43 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 030921
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 030920

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 AM CST Fri Dec 03 2021

    Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A large-scale upper trough should advance quickly eastward from the
    MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Monday. A
    related surface cold front is forecast to sweep across these regions
    as well. At this point, it appears that low-level moisture will
    remain insufficient to support thunderstorms across the East Coast,
    with lingering convective potential mainly relegated to parts of the
    Southeast ahead of the front Monday morning. This region should
    remain displaced to the south of the stronger mid-level westerly
    winds. In addition, with only weak instability forecast, the overall
    severe potential across the CONUS on Monday appears fairly limited.

    The potential for substantial low-level moisture return across
    portions of the Southeast on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday is
    uncertain. There are some indications in medium-range guidance that
    another upper trough will progress across the western/central CONUS
    in this time frame. However, there are differences in both the
    low-level mass response and northward extent of the moisture return,
    suggesting low predictability for organized severe thunderstorms.

    The synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS becomes very uncertain
    by late next week, but some possibility for mean troughing over the western/central states may support continued potential for low-level
    moisture to advance inland across parts of the Southeast on Day
    7/Thursday and Day 8/Friday. This moisture return may be accompanied
    by some potential for severe convection. Regardless, predictability
    remains very low owing to the uncertainty in the large-scale pattern
    at this extended time frame.

    ..Gleason.. 12/03/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Dec 4 09:16:23 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 040916
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 040914

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 AM CST Sat Dec 04 2021

    Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Modest amplification of the mid-level westerlies may occur over
    portions of the central/eastern CONUS on Day 4/Tuesday into Day
    5/Wednesday. Regardless, a prior frontal passage into the northern
    Gulf of Mexico should generally inhibit the inland advance of
    substantial low-level moisture along most of the Gulf Coast in this
    time frame. Parts of FL and southern GA may be an exception, but
    weak forecast instability should limit the threat for organized
    severe convection.

    Latest medium-range guidance is starting to come into better
    agreement with the prospect for another upper trough to amplify and
    move eastward across the western/central CONUS around Day 6/Thursday
    into Day 7/Friday. If this occurs, then the related low-level mass
    response would encourage the inland return of rich low-level
    moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Southeast and
    perhaps even the OH Valley. Of course, there are differences in the
    placement and evolution of this upper trough and attendant surface
    features at this extended time frame. Still, an increase in severe
    potential is evident based on some of the latest models for parts of
    the lower MS Valley and Southeast on Day 8/Saturday. While it is too
    soon to include a 15% severe delineation due to model differences
    and inherent uncertainty, this scenario will be closely monitored.

    ..Gleason.. 12/04/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Dec 5 09:23:56 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 050923
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 050922

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0322 AM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

    Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper trough should move quickly eastward across the central and
    eastern CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday, with substantial low-level
    moisture probably remaining confined to parts of the immediate Gulf
    Coast. This should tend to limit the potential for organized severe thunderstorms across this region. By Day 5/Thursday, modest
    amplification of the mid-level westerlies may occur over portions of
    the western/central CONUS. Medium-range guidance is in reasonable
    agreement that modest low-level moisture will return northward
    across parts of the lower MS Valley ahead of this feature, but
    severe convection appears unlikely across the developing warm sector
    owing to a general lack of large-scale ascent.

    It appears increasingly likely that further amplification of an
    upper trough over the central CONUS should occur late this week into
    early next weekend, with a corresponding northward advance of rich
    low-level moisture over portions of the Gulf Coast states. Depending
    on the evolution of this upper trough and related surface features,
    some organized severe risk may materialize across parts of the
    Southeast beginning late Day 6/Friday and continuing through Day
    7/Saturday. Still, a fair amount uncertainty remains regarding the
    placement and evolution of the upper trough, as well as the prospect
    for robust boundary-layer instability to develop inland. At this
    point, including a 15% severe area appears premature, but trends in
    guidance will continue to be closely monitored.

    ..Gleason.. 12/05/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Dec 6 09:22:04 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 060921
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 060920

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

    Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    There is general consensus in medium-range guidance that an upper
    trough will amplify from Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday as it
    advances eastward across the western/central CONUS. Low-level
    moisture should return northward ahead of this feature across much
    of the lower/mid MS Valley into the parts of the TN/OH Valleys.
    Instability should gradually increase in this time frame across
    these regions ahead of a developing surface low and attendant cold
    front. Sufficient deep-layer shear ahead of the upper trough would
    support thunderstorm organization.

    Some increase in the severe threat may be realized from late Day
    5/Friday and continuing through Day 6/Saturday, mainly over parts of
    the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and the Southeast where greater
    low-level moisture is forecast. Regardless, most guidance shows a
    positive tilt to the upper trough, and a large degree of
    front-parallel flow may tend to undercut convection that develops.
    This suggests that the overall severe threat may tend to remain more isolated/marginal, and a 15% severe area for either Day 5/Friday or
    Day 6/Saturday does not appear warranted at this time. As the upper
    trough and related surface features continue eastward on Day
    7/Sunday, any lingering severe threat should move off the Atlantic
    Coast, with negligible severe potential across the CONUS thereafter.

    ..Gleason.. 12/06/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Dec 7 09:30:13 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS48 KWNS 070930
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 070928

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0328 AM CST Tue Dec 07 2021

    Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Large-scale upper troughing should continue to amplify as it moves
    eastward over the Plains on Day 4/Friday. An embedded shortwave
    trough is forecast to advance northeastward across the lower/mid MS
    Valley during the day. Latest guidance suggests that this feature
    may aid convective initiation across this region by Friday
    afternoon. Rich low-level moisture will likely have advanced
    northward as well in tandem with a northeastward-developing surface
    low over the mid MS Valley and Midwest. A fairly broad warm sector,
    with sufficient instability for surface-based thunderstorms, should
    be present from the TX/LA/MS Gulf Coast northward into parts of the
    Midwest and OH Valley. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear should
    also prove favorable for updraft rotation/organization.

    At this point, the best potential for organized severe thunderstorms
    may exist over the lower/mid MS Valley during the day Friday, as
    ascent associated with the previously mentioned embedded shortwave
    trough overspreads this region. Regardless, there remain too many
    potentially limiting factors to include 15% severe probabilities for
    Day 4/Friday at this time. Namely, the overall positive tilt to the
    upper trough and considerable amount of front-parallel flow which
    may tend to undercut thunderstorms, uncertainty over early-day
    convection contaminating the warm sector, and continued differences
    in guidance regarding the strength/placement of the low-level jet,
    particularly with southward extent. Even with these uncertainties, a
    broad area of at least marginal/isolated severe potential is evident
    for Day 4/Friday from parts of the Southeast to the OH Valley, and
    inclusion of some severe probabilities will likely be needed in the
    next outlook update.

    This marginal/isolated severe risk may persist into Day 5/Saturday
    as the upper trough moves from the central to eastern CONUS. There
    is even more uncertainty with eastward extent regarding sufficient
    low-level moisture return to support robust convection, as
    thunderstorms along the eastward-advancing cold front will probably
    outpace the already weak instability. Even so, some severe threat
    may continue on Day 5/Saturday from portions of the Southeast into
    the OH/TN Valleys and perhaps the adjacent southern/central
    Appalachians. Once the surface cold front clears the East Coast by
    Day 6/Sunday, severe potential appears very low across the CONUS
    through the rest of the forecast period.

    ..Gleason.. 12/07/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 8 09:21:51 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS48 KWNS 080921
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 080920

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 AM CST Wed Dec 08 2021

    Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the large-scale
    upper trough over the Upper Midwest and MS Valley will move quickly
    across the eastern CONUS on Day 4/Saturday. The surface warm sector
    in place ahead of this feature is expected to become pinched off,
    particularly with northward extent across the OH Valley. Still,
    there may be sufficient, albeit weak, instability combined with
    strong shear to support a continued severe risk as convection moves
    eastward along cold front, mainly across parts of the Southeast
    through the day. A large component of low/mid-level flow will be
    parallel to the surface boundary by Day 4/Saturday, and this front
    may tend to undercut the thunderstorms that will likely be ongoing
    at the start of the period. Accordingly, it remains unclear if any
    more than an isolated/marginal severe risk will develop. Will
    therefore defer possible inclusion of a 15% severe delineation
    across some part of the Southeast to a later outlook, if needed.
    Once the cold front clears the East Coast, low severe potential is
    expected across the CONUS through at least Day 7/Tuesday.

    By the middle of next week, there are some indications that another
    upper trough may eject eastward over the western/central CONUS. But,
    there is a large amount of model spread in the placement/evolution
    of this upper trough, and with how much low-level moisture will
    return northward across the Plains ahead of it. This suggests low predictability by Day 8/Wednesday.

    ..Gleason.. 12/08/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 9 08:53:57 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 090853
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 090852

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 AM CST Thu Dec 09 2021

    Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A surface cold front is forecast to have moved off the East Coast by
    Day 4/Sunday. Minimal severe potential is evident across the CONUS
    through at least Day 6/Tuesday owing to a lack general lack of
    low-level moisture and related instability. By the middle of next
    week, medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that an
    upper trough will eject northeastward from the Great Basin across
    the Rockies and into the central/northern Plains. Enough low-level
    moisture may advance northward across the southern/central Plains to
    support some chance for severe thunderstorms around Day 7/Wednesday.
    However, there is too much uncertainty in the timing/placement of
    the upper trough, degree of low-level moisture return, and the
    potential for sufficient instability to include any 15% severe
    delineations at this extended time frame.

    ..Gleason.. 12/09/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 10 08:47:33 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 100847
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 100845

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0245 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

    Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday...
    A cool, dry and stable airmass will be in place across the central
    and eastern United States on Monday and Tuesday. For this reason,
    severe thunderstorm development is not expected across the
    continental United States early in the week.

    ...Day 6/Wednesday to Day 8/Friday...
    On Wednesday and Thursday, a fast moving upper-level trough is
    forecast to move northeastward from the central Rockies to the Great
    Lakes region. Moisture return will take place ahead of the system
    from the southern Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, where surface
    dewpoints could reach the upper 50s to lower 60s F. Thunderstorm
    development will be possible along and to the west of the moist
    corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development
    will again be possible along the moist corridor in the central Great
    Lakes region on Thursday. Although deep-layer shear will be strong
    on both days, weak instability should keep any severe potential
    isolated.

    On Friday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the
    central United States. A moist airmass should be in place in the
    western Gulf Coast region where isolated thunderstorm development
    will be possible during the afternoon. Although instability should
    remain weak Friday afternoon, a marginal severe threat could still
    develop in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, model
    differences concerning the distribution of instability and the
    upper-level pattern for Friday are substantial in the southern U.S.
    For this reason, will go predictability too low.

    ..Broyles.. 12/10/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Dec 11 08:47:38 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 110847
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 110845

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0245 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

    Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
    The medium-range models move an upper-level trough quickly
    northeastward from the coast of California on Tuesday to the Great
    Lakes region on Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
    as the trough moves into the central Plains. Although an isolated
    severe threat could develop in parts of the mid Missouri Valley
    Wednesday afternoon, instability is forecast to remain weak. This
    should keep any severe threat marginal.

    As the trough moves into the Great Lakes region on Thursday,
    thunderstorm development will be possible along a cold front from
    the Ohio Valley southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
    Instability is again forecast to be weak along the front suggesting
    any potential for organized thunderstorms will remain minimal.

    ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
    On Friday and Saturday, the models maintain west-southwesterly
    mid-level flow across the central and eastern United States and keep
    a moist airmass in place across the Gulf Coast region. Isolated to
    scattered thunderstorm development will be possible each day along
    the northern edge of this moist airmass from north Texas eastward
    into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states.
    Instability is forecast to be weak along this corridor both on
    Friday and Saturday afternoon suggesting any severe threat will
    remain marginal.

    ..Broyles.. 12/11/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Dec 12 08:52:46 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS48 KWNS 120852
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 120851

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0251 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021

    Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
    An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward across the
    central Plains on Wednesday. Thunderstorm development is expected
    during the afternoon and evening along an associated cold front from
    eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota. Instability should be weak
    keeping any severe threat isolated. On Thursday, another upper-level
    trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region as the cold
    front advances southeastward into the Ohio and mid Mississippi
    Valleys. Thunderstorm development should take place along the front
    during the afternoon and evening. Instability should again be weak
    suggesting any unconditional severe threat should be isolated. For
    Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
    north-central U.S. with west to southwest mid-level flow located in
    the southern and eastern U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to remain
    in place across the eastern southern Plains and lower Mississippi
    Valley, where isolated thunderstorm development will be possible
    Friday afternoon and evening. Again, weak instability should keep
    any potential for severe thunderstorm activity on the low side.

    ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
    On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to advance slowly southeastward across the eastern Gulf Coast states and Georgia as an upper-level trough moves across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
    Thunderstorm development could occur each afternoon along parts of
    the cold front from Alabama northeastward into the Carolinas. But
    instability should remain weak minimizing any potential severe
    threat.

    ..Broyles.. 12/12/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Dec 13 08:54:58 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS48 KWNS 130854
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 130853

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0253 AM CST Mon Dec 13 2021

    Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
    An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into
    the Great Lakes region on Thursday as an associated cold front
    advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley
    and southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
    will be possible along and near the front Thursday afternoon and
    evening. A marginal severe threat will be possible in parts of the
    Arklatex and east Texas as weak instability peaks in the afternoon.

    On Friday and Saturday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast from
    the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass
    should be in place from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into
    the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorm development will be
    possible from late Friday afternoon through the evening along the
    northwestern edge of the moist sector near a front from central
    Texas northeastward into the Arklatex. The potential for thunder
    could linger into Saturday across the eastern half of Texas as the
    front moves southeastward. Instability on Friday and Saturday is
    forecast to be too weak for anything more than a marginal severe
    threat.

    ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
    Considerable uncertainty exists on Sunday and Monday. Model
    forecasts differ on the speed of an upper-level trough moving
    through southern part of the country. As the trough moves eastward
    into the Gulf Coast States sometime on Sunday night or Monday, a
    severe threat will be possible along or near an associated cold
    front. Weak instability is forecast along the front suggesting any
    severe threat would be marginal and conditional.

    ..Broyles.. 12/13/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Dec 14 09:55:29 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 140955
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 140953

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 AM CST Tue Dec 14 2021

    Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
    An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
    central Rockies on Friday as flow remains southwesterly across much
    of the central and eastern United States. At the surface, a moist
    airmass is forecast to be located from eastern parts of the southern
    Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are expected
    to develop late Friday afternoon along the northwestern edge of the
    moist sector from east Texas into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
    Instability and shear is forecast to be strong enough for a marginal
    severe threat but anything more will be conditional upon how much destabilization takes place.

    On Saturday and Sunday, the cold front is forecast to move
    southeastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states.
    Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front
    each afternoon. Although strong deep-layer shear is forecast,
    instability should be very weak along the front suggesting the
    potential for severe weather will be minimal.

    ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
    On Monday and Tuesday, the cold front in the Gulf Coast states is
    forecast to move steadily eastward as an upper-level trough moves
    from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard.
    Thunderstorms will again be possible along and ahead of the front
    before the front moves eastward into the Atlantic. Although much
    uncertainty exists in the forecast early next week, the models
    suggest that instability will be weak along the front. As a result,
    any severe weather potential should be minimized.

    ..Broyles.. 12/14/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 15 09:59:50 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 150959
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 150958

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0358 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

    Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5...
    An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the mid to upper
    Mississippi Valley on Saturday as southwest mid-level flow remains
    in place from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold
    front is forecast to move southeastward across the Gulf Coast
    region. Thunderstorms will be possible along the front during the
    day from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward into the lower
    Mississippi Valley. Instability is forecast to be very weak
    suggesting that the chance for severe thunderstorm development would
    be low. The front is forecast to move southeastward across the
    northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday as a cool and dry airmass
    dominates the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm chances appear
    low across most of the continental U.S on Sunday.

    ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
    On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move through the
    southern Plains and into the western Gulf of Mexico. As the trough
    moves across the Gulf of Mexico from Monday evening into Tuesday,
    thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough along
    the immediate central Gulf Coast. The best chance for severe
    thunderstorms would be in Florida as the upper-level trough moves
    into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. But predictability is
    low at this range in the forecast cycle. For Wednesday, the
    upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western Atlantic
    reducing the chance for thunderstorms across the continental United
    States.

    ..Broyles.. 12/15/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 16 09:43:51 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 160943
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 160942

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021

    Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6...
    A cold front is forecast to move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on
    Sunday as an upper-level trough moves eastward across northern
    Mexico. The trough is forecast to reach the western Gulf of Mexico
    Monday night. Thunderstorm development will take place ahead of the
    trough but the brunt of the activity should remain south of the
    central Gulf Coast. By late Monday night into Tuesday, thunderstorms
    are forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula. A severe threat
    may develop with these storms during the day on Tuesday. But the
    magnitude of any potential severe threat remains highly uncertain at
    this time.

    ...Wednesday/Day 7 to Thursday/Day 8...
    The upper-level trough is forecast to reach the Florida Peninsula on
    Wednesday. Any convection associated with the trough should move
    into the western Atlantic as a cold front advances eastward across
    the Florida Peninsula. On Thursday, the potential for thunderstorm
    development across the continental United States should be low
    largely due to a large area of high pressure over the central and
    northern U.S.

    ..Broyles.. 12/16/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 17 09:56:57 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 170956
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 170955

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

    Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Monday/Day4 to Tuesday/Day5...
    A mid-level trough is forecast to amplify as it crosses the Gulf of
    Mexico on Monday. A surface low is forecast to deepen as it moves
    across the Gulf and into the northern Florida Peninsula near the end
    of the period on Monday. More robust low-level moisture will advect
    northward ahead of this surface low and overspread the entire
    Peninsula. This will lead to weak to moderate instability by Tuesday
    morning. Mid-range model guidance has trended more amplified with
    the mid-level trough in the last few runs. However, there is still
    uncertainty with the exact solution as the ECMWF has a more
    consolidated wave and stronger surface low than the GFS, and thus a
    greater severe weather threat.

    ...Wednesday/Day6 to Friday/Day8...
    In the wake of the system which crosses the Florida Peninsula on
    Tuesday/Day5, northerly flow across the Gulf of Mexico will keep
    moisture well offshore and thus preclude severe probabilities on
    Wednesday/Day6 and Thursday/Day7. Some moisture may start to advect
    northward by Day 8, but there is still considerable uncertainty
    regarding the upper-level pattern and the quality of moisture
    return.

    ..Bentley.. 12/17/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Dec 18 09:45:38 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 180945
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 180944

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

    Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Tuesday - Florida...
    A deepening surface cyclone will be somewhere near the western
    Florida Peninsula Tuesday morning. As this area of low pressure
    crosses Florida, some severe weather is possible. Current forecast
    soundings show supercell wind profiles but weak lapse rates and
    instability. This weak thermodynamic profile is the primary reason
    for not including severe probabilities in an otherwise favorable
    kinematic environment.

    ...Day 7/Fri - Day 8/Sat...
    Northward transport of Gulf Moisture is forecast by the end of the
    week and into next weekend. There is considerable variability in
    model guidance beyond Day 6 and thus no clear severe weather threat.
    However, there is some consensus for the moist low-level airmass to
    advance well inland, which increases the likelihood of an unstable
    warm sector ahead of advancing troughs and thus, the potential for
    severe weather will need to be monitored.

    ..Bentley.. 12/18/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Dec 19 09:58:44 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 190958
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 190957

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

    Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 6/Fri - Day 8/Sun...
    Northward transport of Gulf moisture is forecast by the end of the
    week and into next weekend on most global deterministic and ensemble
    guidance. There is no clear time period of specific concern at this
    time, but the overall pattern appears favorable for potential severe
    weather concern at some point. There is reasonable agreement in a
    large scale pattern favoring a western CONUS upper-level trough and
    ridging in the east which should keep the warm sector inland and
    allow the potential mid-level shortwave troughs to eject out of the
    western CONUS trough and interact with this seasonably warm/moist
    warm sector.

    ..Bentley.. 12/19/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Dec 20 09:11:24 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 200911
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 200909

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0309 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021

    Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Above-average agreement persists with a shortwave trough near the
    Pacific Northwest coast at 12Z Thu progressing east across the
    northern states through D5/Fri. Cyclogenesis is expected over the
    north-central states with poleward advection of modified moisture
    from the western Gulf towards the OH Valley/Midwest in an air mass characterized by well above-normal to potentially record warmth.
    This might yield some severe potential on D5/Fri. However, with
    further reinforcement of a continental polar air mass over the Gulf
    through D2, the degree of moisture return in D4-5 may remain
    insufficient to warrant a greater severe threat. It will prime the
    moist sector for the next upstream trough, with some indications
    that one at a lower latitude may evolve in the D8/Mon-D9/Tue time
    frame. Spread in this scenario remains much too large to warrant
    consideration of a severe weather area, but an above-average
    warm/moist sector in terms of quality and spatial extent for late
    December bears watching early next week.

    ..Grams.. 12/20/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Dec 21 08:52:28 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS48 KWNS 210852
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 210850

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0250 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021

    Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    The day-4 to day-8 period largely will be characterized by low
    amplitude on the central/eastern CONUS subset of planetary to
    synoptic scales. Several shortwaves will traverse the midlatitude
    westerlies across the CONUS. ECMWF/GFS and their ensembles indicate
    these perturbations' fields of large-scale ascent will be mostly
    located over relatively low-theta-e boundary layers, poleward of the oscillatory surface front, with a substantial component of flow
    aloft parallel to the mean front.

    A broad warm sector with at least marginally favorable Gulf moisture trajectories should develop and occupy much of the south-central/
    southeastern CONUS south of that front. However, with specific foci
    for strong-severe convection strongly dependent on low-level mass
    response to low-predictability shortwaves, overall predictability
    appears low for the period. For example, even by day 4/Christmas
    Eve, spread discussed in the day-3 outlook increases into day 4/
    Christmas Eve and day 5/Christmas Day, regarding phase speed and southern-branch amplitude of the trough moving eastward from the
    Plains across the Mississippi Valley. Weak relative maxima in
    convective potential appear day 4 around the lower/mid Mississippi
    Valley near a possible frontal wave, and perhaps days 7-8 (27th-
    29th) somewhere in the southeastern 1/4 of the CONUS, as overall
    flow aloft trends more cyclonic. Still, these scenarios appear too
    uncertain for any 15%+ unconditional severe areas at this time.

    ..Edwards.. 12/21/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 22 09:34:34 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 220934
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 220932

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0332 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021

    Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Through most of the day-4-8 period, the mid/upper-level pattern
    should be characterized on the large scale by a mean western trough
    with positive tilt. Downstream, westerly to west-southwesterly flow
    is expected over most of the central/eastern CONUS. Flow generally
    will increase with northward extent from the Gulf Coast region,
    where most of the boundary-layer moisture should remain beneath a
    persistent, seasonally strong EML. Shortwaves embedded in the
    otherwise nearly zonal mid/upper pattern should encourage a few
    instances of at least weak frontal-wave low formation along a mean
    baroclinic zone oscillating over the southern Mid-Atlantic,
    Tennessee Valley to lower Ohio Valley, and Mid-South/Ozarks regions.

    In such a low-amplitude, shortwave-driven pattern, predictability is
    innately low more than 3-4 days out. Still, one area of interest
    could be day-5/26th-27th from parts of the central Plains to Ohio
    Valley, near the possible path of a frontal-wave low that may
    concentrate mass response and lift enough to produce at least
    elevated thunderstorms north of the frontal zone across parts of the
    Midwest, consistent with ECMWF QPF guidance. Severe potential along
    and south of the front is more uncertain due to the antecedent EML
    and related capping. Beyond that, predictability degrades even
    further, with considerable ensemble/deterministic model spread.

    ..Edwards.. 12/22/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 23 09:47:13 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 230947
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 230945

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 AM CST Thu Dec 23 2021

    Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Overall, the large scale pattern will feature an upper-level trough
    in the western CONUS with an upper level ridge near the East Coast.
    This pattern could be favorable for severe weather events,
    especially as a higher moisture content airmass over the Gulf of
    Mexico moves inland. Southerly winds have started to strengthen in
    the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning which will start the
    process of moisture recovery across portions of south Texas and
    Louisiana. Winds across the eastern Gulf will turn easterly by early
    Friday morning and will start the long-fetch moisture feed which is
    expected to persist for the entire long term period.

    ...D4/Sunday - Eastern Plains into the Midwest...
    A mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject from near Southern
    California on Sunday morning to parts of the Great Lakes by early
    Monday morning. There are differences in timing and amplitude of the
    trough with complicate the forecast somewhat, but a weakening
    surface low is expected to track from somewhere in the Plains into
    the Great Lakes during the Day Sunday. There is agreement in upper
    50s to near 60 degree dewpoints to move in ahead of this system.
    This may provide enough moisture for some thunderstorm activity near
    the surface low, but instability is expected to stay too limited for
    a greater severe weather threat.

    ...D6/Tuesday - Midwest into the Ohio Valley...
    The next weak shortwave trough will move through the Midwest and
    into the Great Lakes on Day 6/Tuesday. By this time, surface
    dewpoints are forecast by most guidance to be in the low to mid 60s
    for much of the warm sector. This will result in a more unstable
    warm sector and slightly higher chances for severe weather. At this
    time, instability does not appear high enough to support severe
    weather probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    ...Beyond Day 6...
    The chances for more significant severe weather will increase beyond
    Day 6. Most guidance suggests 70 degree dewpoints across the entire
    Gulf of Mexico by D6/Tue. This is anomalously high Gulf moisture
    content for this time of year and will set the stage for severe
    weather potential. The exact magnitude of any severe weather threat
    will depend on the evolution of the upper-level and surface pattern,
    but with a broad warm sector in place across the Southeast and
    mid-Mississippi Valley it is more likely than not that there will
    eventually be a severe weather episode somewhere from the Southeast
    into the Midwest/Great Lakes.

    ..Bentley.. 12/23/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 24 09:59:51 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 240959
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 240958

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0358 AM CST Fri Dec 24 2021

    Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper-level ridge will remain across the southeastern United
    States for much of the period. Several shortwave troughs will move
    along the western periphery of this ridge through the period with
    increasingly rich low-level moisture being pulled northward with
    each passing wave. By 00Z on D6/Wed, dewpoints are forecast to be
    70F or greater across the western 2/3rds of the Gulf of Mexico,
    which is more reminiscent of late March/early April than December.
    This will provide a reservoir of ample deep moisture across the Gulf
    of Mexico which will continue to feed a broad warm sector across the
    Southeast CONUS.

    ...D5/Tue - Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
    Medium-range forecast guidance has come into better agreement with a
    mid-level shortwave trough tracking from the Colorado Rockies to the
    Upper Midwest during the day on D5/Tuesday. A sub-1000mb lee cyclone
    is forecast to move eastward through the day and weaken as the
    mid-level shortwave trough becomes less defined through time.
    Meanwhile, the low-level jet is forecast to maintain its strength as
    it shifts east toward the Ohio/Mississippi Valley region. This will
    help transport low 60s dewpoints into the Ohio Valley with mid 60s
    dewpoints as far north as western Tennessee. At this time, buoyancy
    still appears too limited to support a widespread severe weather
    threat.

    ...D6/Wed - Portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Mississippi
    Valley...
    By Wednesday morning, better instability should be in place across
    the Southeast. This will likely increase thunderstorm chances along
    and near a surface front somewhere in the Southeast/Mid-Mississippi
    Valley. However, by this time the broader pattern appears less
    favorable with mid-level height rises and only a weak surface
    reflection (if any) along the front.

    Beyond D6/Wed, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the
    upper-level pattern. Rich Gulf of Mexico moisture should remain
    across the Southeast, which could eventually result in severe
    weather potential, if the right upper-level system interacts with
    this broad warm sector. However, there is too much variance at this
    time to decipher any potential location for severe weather concern.

    ..Bentley.. 12/24/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Dec 25 09:54:02 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 250953
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 250952

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0352 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

    Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...D4/Tue - Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
    A weakening surface low will move from the central Plains to the
    Midwest on Tuesday. The greatest upper-level forcing is expected to
    remain well north of the warm sector which will result in the warm
    sector remaining capped for much of the day. Elevated convection is
    expected north of the warm front for much of the day, but
    instability should be too limited for a severe threat from this
    activity. Surface based convection may occur Tuesday night along the
    front near the Ohio River from southwest Ohio to the confluence with
    the Mississippi. Forecast soundings indicate limited instability and
    weak mid-level lapse rates which would limit the overall severe
    potential.

    ...D5/Wed - Northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and vicinity...
    Prior to D5, the warm sector moisture has been contaminated by
    continental air which has led to weak instability across much of the
    warm sector. However, by Tuesday night, a true maritime tropical
    moisture feed is forecast to overtake the western Gulf of Mexico.
    Persistent southerly flow will advect this airmass inland from
    eastern Texas to northern Mississippi/Alabama by Wednesday
    afternoon. Moderate instability should develop south of a front,
    which is expected to be in place from eastern Texas into the
    Tennessee/Ohio Valley region. There is decent model agreement with
    the increasing low-level moisture and the relative position of the
    surface front. However, the upper-level pattern does cast more
    uncertainty on the forecast.

    The details of any severe weather threat will come from the
    evolution of the low-amplitude wave to eject from the larger scale
    western CONUS upper-level trough. Predictability of the
    timing/amplitude of upper-level troughs such as these is inherently challenging, especially at Day 5. Therefore, it is unsurprising that
    there is still considerable spread between available mid-range model
    guidance. The last 2 runs of the ECMWF have shown a more amplified
    mid-upper level trough which would initiate a greater low-level mass
    response and likely lead to a greater severe-weather threat.

    Therefore, uncertainty remains regarding the evolution, timing, and
    amplitude of the upper-level pattern on Wednesday. However, there
    has been a consistent signal for surface-based storms in an
    environment with moderate buoyancy and strong shear for several
    days. The aforementioned arrival of a maritime tropical airmass in
    the vicinity of a surface front and at least weak height falls aloft
    is consistent with at least scattered storm development. Therefore,
    confidence is high enough to introduce 15 percent severe
    probabilities for Wednesday.

    ..Bentley.. 12/25/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Dec 26 09:55:39 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 260955
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 260953

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

    Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...D4/Wed - Mississippi/Alabama...
    Deep Gulf moisture will be in place across much of the Southeast by
    Wednesday morning. Both the operational ECMWF and GFS along with the
    GEFS mean show mid 60s dewpoints to the Tennessee border and upper
    60s dewpoints in the southern half of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
    Alabama. A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to be somewhere
    near the Four Corners/central High Plains region at 12Z Wednesday
    and move into the Great Lakes region by 12Z Thursday. The 00Z ECMWF
    has trended less amplified with the mid-level flow and thus has a
    much weaker, or non existent, surface feature along the front which
    more closely resembles the last several runs of the GFS. The
    individual GEFS members show considerable variance concerning the
    amplitude of this trough and the corresponding strength of the
    low-level wind field. These details, which should become more clear
    in the day 2/3 time period, will be important to the intensity of
    the severe-weather threat. Nonetheless, convection is expected in a
    pre-frontal convergence zone across Mississippi and Alabama where
    moderate buoyancy and strong deep layer shear are forecast.
    Therefore, organized severe storms are likely on Wednesday afternoon
    and into the overnight hours in portions of Mississippi and Alabama.

    ...D7-8/Sat-Sun - Portions of the Southeast...
    The last several runs of the ECMWF and GFS show advancement of the
    western CONUS upper-level trough which moves eastward across the
    CONUS as a positively tilted trough. This would be higher amplitude
    than any of the shortwave troughs which are forecast to cross the
    Plains this week. An amplified mid-level trough interacting with a
    broad warm sector with mid to upper 60s dewpoints could lead to a
    significant severe-weather episode. There are still considerable
    differences in the timing and amplitude of this advancing
    upper-level trough, which can be seen comparing not only the
    operational long-range model suite, but also the varying solutions
    within the GEFS. However, despite these differences, virtually all
    the members show the potential for a severe weather event sometime
    on Saturday or Sunday. The lack of run-to-run model consistency and
    timing differences are too great to include probabilities at this
    time. However, if these uncertainties become more clear in the
    coming days, probabilities may need to be added.

    ..Bentley.. 12/26/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Dec 27 09:48:41 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1640598529-57364-243
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    ACUS48 KWNS 270948
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 270947

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021

    Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day6/Saturday - Deep South into the Tennessee Valley...
    Global operational and ensemble guidance has come into better
    agreement for the western CONUS trough, which has been persistent
    for the past 7 to 10 days, to advance eastward this weekend. A
    maritime tropical airmass is expected across much of the
    Southeastern United States by Wednesday as low-level trajectories
    from the Caribbean will remain for the entire week. A very moist
    airmass will be in place ahead of this trough as it advances east.
    Therefore, severe weather is possible across portions of the Deep
    South and Tennessee Valley on Saturday.

    Despite improved agreement with respect to the timing of the
    upper-level trough, there remains significant disagreement regarding
    the evolution of the pattern. The UKMET and operational GFS show a
    more phased upper-level pattern, and therefore a stronger and
    farther-north surface low. The ECMWF, however, shows a lead wave
    moving through the Ohio Valley followed by a second wave moving
    through the Tennessee Valley Sunday night. The GEM and ECMWF
    ensemble mean show a surface low moving along the Ohio River and
    more than half the individual GEFS members show something similar.
    Therefore, the 15 percent probabilities were drawn with the
    expectation of a surface low tracking along the Ohio River. Changes
    to the evolution of the system are expected, and later outlooks will
    adjust probabilities as necessary. At this time, the 15 percent
    contour highlights the corridor with the greatest confidence for
    thunderstorm coverage in an unstable and strongly sheared
    environment.

    ..Bentley.. 12/27/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Dec 28 10:05:51 2021
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    ------------=_1640685956-57364-1077
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    ACUS48 KWNS 281005
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 281004

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0404 AM CST Tue Dec 28 2021

    Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day4/Friday - Arklatex to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
    A mid-level shortwave trough will move from near the Baja Peninsula
    Friday morning to the southern Plains by late Friday night. This
    approaching shortwave and deepening lee cyclone across the southern
    High Plains will elicit a strong mass response across the Arklatex
    late Friday and into Friday night. As the low-level jet strengthens,
    storm coverage is expected to increase in a broad zone of isentropic
    ascent north of a warm front from southeast Oklahoma to the
    Tennessee Valley. In addition to this elevated storm activity, most
    guidance also shows surface-based storm development on the warm side
    of the boundary Friday evening into the early morning hours
    Saturday. A very moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of this
    storm activity with mid-60s dewpoints as far north as southern
    Kentucky at 06Z Saturday. Therefore, convection will form and
    propagate into an unstable environment which will allow
    thunderstorms to continue through the overnight hours and into the
    Day5 period with a severe threat throughout. Strong deep-layer and
    low-level shear will support all severe hazards.

    ...Day5/Saturday - Mid South and the Tennessee Valley to the
    Southern Appalachians...
    Severe weather will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
    from the early morning thunderstorms across Arkansas and vicinity.
    There may be a slight lull in storm coverage/intensity during the
    diurnal minimum Saturday morning, as the lead wave continues
    northeastward and the primary trough approaches from the west.
    However, by midday, significant height falls will start to
    overspread the warm sector and widespread storm development is
    anticipated. The location of overnight convection will have a
    significant impact on the zones within the broader risk area where a
    higher severe weather threat will exist. However, all guidance shows
    a broad warm sector with a broad 50 knot low-level jet, which would
    foster an environment favorable for all severe weather types. The
    greatest uncertainties are related to the northward extent of the
    risk and the surface low track. Given the widespread convection
    expected north of the warm front, a convectively reinforced warm
    front could set up farther south than the surface low track may
    suggest. Also, global guidance still varies with the intensity and
    location of the surface-low as it tracks northeast. The track and
    intensity of this surface-low will have some impact on the storm
    evolution and intensity within the warm sector, especially as it
    relates to storm mode and the tornado threat. Maintained 15 percent probabilities from the previous Day 6 forecast with an expansion on
    the southern and eastern extent to account for the threat continuing
    late Saturday night.

    ...Day6/Sunday - Portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas...
    A severe-weather threat will likely persist into the Southeast and
    Carolinas after 12Z on Sunday, but the magnitude of the threat
    varies greatly. Most guidance shows a remnant squall line moving
    through the region. With extensive cloud cover, slightly lower
    moisture quality, and decreasing ascent, a significant severe threat
    would not necessarily be most likely. However, there is still
    considerable uncertainty during the Day 6 timeframe, and several of
    the GEFS members, including the operational GFS, have a deepening
    surface cyclone somewhere east of the Appalachians on Sunday. This
    would lead to a more significant severe-weather threat than ECMWF
    guidance would suggest and will need to be monitored as a
    possibility.

    ..Bentley.. 12/28/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 29 10:02:30 2021
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    ACUS48 KWNS 291002
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 291000

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 AM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

    Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Saturday - Mid South into the Tennessee Valley and western Appalachians...
    Severe weather will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
    from the early morning thunderstorms across Arkansas and vicinity.
    The location of overnight convection will have a significant impact
    on the zones within the broader risk area where a higher
    severe-weather threat will exist. However, all guidance shows a
    broad warm sector with a 50 knot low-level jet, which would foster
    an environment favorable for all severe-weather types.

    The greatest uncertainties are related to the northward extent of
    the risk and the surface low track. Given the widespread convection anticipated, a convectively reinforced warm front could set up
    farther south than the synoptic front (as depicted by the 00Z GFS
    and NAM). Also, global guidance still varies with the intensity and
    location of the surface low as it tracks northeast. The 00z ECMWF
    shows 3 separate mid-level shortwave troughs and therefore, develops
    multiple elongated low-pressure areas along the front. Meanwhile the
    06Z GFS and NAM show a more consolidated surface low development,
    but vary significantly with the timing.

    At this time, it appears eastern Mississippi into central and
    northern Alabama will likely be the region within the broader 15
    percent probabilities where a greater severe-weather threat may
    exist. In this region, questions regarding moisture quality should
    be resolved as a plume of higher-theta-e air will advect off the
    Gulf at 850mb and into this region. Also, this is the region where
    storms are expected to be during the diurnal peak when instability
    should be greater. However, a limiting factor, particularly for the
    tornado threat in this region, will be veered boundary-layer flow
    depicted by most guidance. A surface low track through the Ohio
    Valley and into the Northeast, as shown from the 00Z ECMWF and GFS,
    would not be favorable for more backed surface flow needed for a
    greater hodograph size and larger tornado threat.

    ...Day 5/ Sunday - Portions of the Southeast...
    A line of storms is expected to be ongoing along the surface front
    from southeast Virginia to the Florida Panhandle Sunday morning.
    Forecast soundings show at least weak instability ahead of this
    line, which could support some severe threat. At this time the
    threat appears too low to support probabilities.

    ..Bentley.. 12/29/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 30 09:10:09 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS48 KWNS 300910
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 300908

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0308 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

    Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Sunday - Portions of the Southeast...
    A line of thunderstorms, possibly severe, is expected to be ongoing
    at the beginning of the period from Western North Carolina and South
    Carolina into Georgia and Alabama. Slight breaks in the clouds are
    possible ahead of this line in Georgia and South Carolina which
    could lead to some destabilization during the morning to mid-day
    hours. A 60+kt low-level jet will remain across the region which
    will support the potential for damaging winds from these storms.
    However, surface winds are forecast to be southwesterly by this
    time, which should limit the tornado threat despite strong low-level
    speed shear in the region.

    ...Day 5 and beyond...
    A cold front will remove favorable low-level moisture from the Gulf
    of Mexico region Sunday and Sunday night, which will limit
    convective potential across the eastern CONUS for at least the first
    half of next week. The GFS tries to bring moisture return into the
    Southeast by D8/Thursday, but the ECMWF does not bring any moisture
    return inland until next weekend.

    ..Bentley.. 12/30/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 31 09:41:16 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS48 KWNS 310941
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 310939

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0339 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

    Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    The long term period will begin with northerly flow over the entire
    Gulf of Mexico basin which will lead to an intrusion of continental
    air. It will take until at least the middle of next week for
    low-level moisture to recover in the Gulf of Mexico and until at
    least next weekend until deep moisture returns to the Gulf Coast.
    Therefore, thunderstorm chances, and subsequent severe-weather
    chances, will be minimal until at least the end of next week.

    ..Bentley.. 12/31/2021


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jan 1 09:41:52 2022
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    ACUS48 KWNS 010941
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 010940

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

    Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A zonal flow pattern is forecast across the central and eastern U.S.
    at the start of the period, with an upper-level trough developing
    across the Great Plains on Tuesday. The through is forecast to move
    into the eastern U.S. and deamplify by Thursday as another
    upper-level trough in its wake moves into the Mississippi Valley.
    Moisture return with this system should be limited keeping
    thunderstorm chances very low across the continental United States
    from Tuesday to Thursday.

    West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast to develop across the
    central and eastern U.S. on Friday. A low amplitude upper-level
    ridge is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Saturday.
    Moisture return should continue to be limited late in the Day 4 to 8
    period. The chance for thunderstorms on Saturday should remain
    confined to the Texas and Louisiana coasts along the northwestern
    edge of a moist airmass, which could begin to return northward into
    the southern Plains Saturday night.

    Overall, the severe potential is expected to be low across the
    continental United States during the Day 4 to 8 period.

    ..Broyles.. 01/01/2022


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jan 2 09:53:59 2022
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    ACUS48 KWNS 020953
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 020952

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0352 AM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

    Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    On Wednesday, an upper-level trough is forecast across the
    Mississippi Valley with northwest flow over much of the western U.S.
    The trough is forecast to move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard by
    Friday. This pattern would keep a dry airmass in place across most
    of the continental United States during the mid to late week. As a
    result, the chance for thunderstorms is expected to be low across
    the nation from Wednesday to Friday.

    On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to amplify in the
    western states with southwest mid-level flow developing over the
    eastern half the nation. In response, low-level moisture may return
    northward into the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on
    Saturday and Saturday night. Thunderstorms could develop along the
    western Gulf Coast Saturday afternoon and evening. That chance for
    storms would spread northward across the lower to mid Mississippi
    Valley on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Although a severe threat
    would be possible on Sunday if enough instability can develop ahead
    of the front, uncertainty is too substantial on Day 8 to introduce a
    threat area.

    ..Broyles.. 01/02/2022


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jan 3 09:48:09 2022
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    ACUS48 KWNS 030948
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 030946

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

    Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    West-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast on Thursday across
    much of the continental United States. At the surface, high pressure
    will be entrenched across the central and eastern states. This
    feature is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic by
    Saturday which should allow for moisture return onto the Texas
    Coastal Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible along the northern
    edge of this moist airmass Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture
    return could continue into the south-central U.S. Saturday night
    into Sunday as a cold front approaches quickly from the northwest,
    but model spread concerning that scenario is large. Thunderstorms
    will again be possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and
    evening from the Arklatex into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
    Although a severe threat could develop on Sunday, uncertainty at
    this range is substantial. The front is currently forecast to move
    into the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday ending the potential for thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast.

    ..Broyles.. 01/03/2022


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 4 09:10:15 2022
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    ACUS48 KWNS 040910
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 040908

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0308 AM CST Tue Jan 04 2022

    Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A large upper trough is expected to be over the eastern CONUS on
    Friday/D4, and is forecast to move out of the Northeast on
    Saturday/D5. An associated area of high pressure will move from the
    MS Valley to the Mid Atlantic during the same period, with low-level
    moisture return occurring late Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6 across the
    Southeast as a positive-tilt upper trough moves from the Four
    Corners area across the southern Plains.

    At least a low-end severe threat may develop around Sunday/D7 across
    the lower MS Valley as mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spread north
    ahead of a cold front. At this time, it appears the positive-tilt
    nature of the upper trough and the fast/potentially undercutting
    nature of the cold front will preclude any significant severe
    potential. However, front-parallel winds aloft and MUCAPE of
    500-1000 J/kg may support some damaging wind potential.

    The aforementioned shortwave trough will then become absorbed into a larger-scale upper trough which is forecast to amplify across much
    of the Great Lakes and Northeast, with high pressure rapidly
    stabilizing much the eastern half of the CONUS.

    ..Jewell.. 01/04/2022


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jan 5 09:34:21 2022
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS48 KWNS 050934
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 050932

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0332 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022

    Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Rockies
    on Saturday/D4, emerging into the Plains on Sunday/D5. This will
    occur as a strong upper trough amplifies across the northern Plains
    and Great Lakes. The initial trough will quickly become absorbed by
    the larger amplification, which will continue through Monday/D6
    before departing the northeastern states after Tuesday/D7.

    During the Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5 period, southerly winds will
    result in increasing moisture from eastern TX across the lower MS
    Valley, and widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast. Mid to
    upper 60s F dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead
    of a developing cold front. This front will especially surge on
    Sunday/D5, and will likely undercut convection as it develops. While strengthening mid/upper flow will lead to favorable shear,
    predictability for anything more than low-end severe is low given
    the aforementioned weak instability and surging cold front. By
    Monday/D6, the front will clear the southeastern states, resulting
    in drying conditions.

    ..Jewell.. 01/05/2022


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