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ACUS02 KWNS 041123
SWODY2
SPC AC 041121

Day 2 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF AZ...

AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF MARGINAL RISK IN AZ

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging
wind are possible across most of Arizona on Tuesday afternoon and
early evening.

...AZ...
Latest available guidance has trended more aggressive with the
potential for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon to early
evening on Tuesday. Scattered showers and general thunderstorms are
expected to be ongoing across parts of AZ within the warm conveyor
region downstream of a mid-level low just off the southern CA/Baja
CA coastal border. As this early-day convection likely shifts
north/east, more robust diurnal destabilization is progged to occur
within an arc from west-central to southeast AZ. Ascent tied to the
ejecting mid-level low should impinge on this buoyancy plume by
early afternoon. Potential exists for discrete cells and a cluster
to develop east-northeast through the afternoon into early evening,
with a separate corridor of development off the higher terrain of
southeast AZ. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates along with
effective shear strengthening to 30-40 kts may support a few
supercells capable of producing both large hail and severe wind
gusts, especially across central AZ.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 0541Z...
An upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the
lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and then move slowly
northwestward Tuesday night. To the east of the system, a moist
airmass will be in place from the Southeast northward into the Ohio
Valley and eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Pockets of instability
will develop across the moist airmass by afternoon with scattered
thunderstorms developing in some areas. Even near peak heating, the
combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected to
remain too marginal for severe storms. Elsewhere across the
continental United States, isolated to scattered thunderstorm are
likely to develop across parts of the Desert Southwest and Four
Corners region. These storms are also expected to remain sub-severe.

..Grams/Broyles.. 10/04/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 041723
SWODY2
SPC AC 041722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
ARIZONA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN
ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging wind are
possible across most of Arizona on Tuesday afternoon and early
evening. A risk for marginally severe hail may develop over parts
of Mississippi/Alabama Tuesday afternoon.

...AZ...
A closed mid-level low, initially near San Diego, will weaken as it
moves northeast and evolve into a trough before reaching UT
overnight Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level south-southwesterly
flow will overspread AZ during the day. Adequately moist low
levels, featuring 50s boundary-layer dewpoints south of the Mogollon
Rim, will combine with relatively cool mid-level temperatures and
surface heating to yield weak to moderate buoyancy (250-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Additionally, the strong wind profile will support
organized storm structures, including the possibility for a marginal
supercell or two and some organization to linear convection. Large
hail could accompany the stronger updrafts and locally severe gusts
are also possible. This activity will probably continue towards the
Four Corners late Tuesday night but weaken as instability wanes.

...Southeast...
General thunderstorms are forecast for much of the Southeast to the
East Coast in association with a mid-level low over the lower MS
Valley. Storm coverage will likely peak during the diurnal heating
cycle. In association with the 500 mb cold pocket over MS (-14 to
-16 deg C), a couple of afternoon storms could yield a risk for
marginally severe hail. This activity will weaken by the early
evening.

..Smith.. 10/04/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 050546
SWODY2
SPC AC 050544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on Wednesday from
the Southeast northward to the southern Great Lakes and eastward to
the Eastern Seaboard. Other thunderstorms may develop in parts of
the Rockies. No severe threat is expected across the continental
United States Wednesday and Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary across
north-central Arkansas on Wednesday. On the eastern side of the
system, a moist airmass will be in place from parts of the Southeast
into the much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Across this area,
warming surface temperatures will contribute to scattered
thunderstorm development. However, instability is expected to remain
weak which should limit any severe potential. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of the Rockies
Wednesday afternoon. This activity should also remain sub-severe.

..Broyles.. 10/05/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 051709
SWODY2
SPC AC 051707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong wind gusts or a brief tornado is possible across parts
of northern and central Alabama on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low centered over AR will lift slowly northward across the
Ozark Plateau on Wednesday. Southerly deep-layer flow across the
Southeast on the eastern side of the upper low and associated trough
will maintain rich boundary-layer moisture across the Southeast.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible in
this warm advection regime across the TN Valley to the Ohio Valley.

...AL...

Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F are forecast on
Wednesday. Cloud cover and periods of ongoing showers/thunderstorms
will limit heating, but MLCAPE around 750-1250 J/kg appears likely.
A surface trough will be oriented roughly north to south near the
AL/MS border, resulting in southeasterly low-level flow beneath south/southwesterly mid/upper level flow. While deep-layer flow is
not expected to be strong, effective shear magnitudes around 25-35
kt are expected. This should aid in at least briefly organized
cells amid weak instability. Backed low-level flow near/east of the
surface trough axis are contributing to somewhat small, but
favorably curved, low-level hodographs in forecast soundings. Given
rich boundary-layer moisture and weak instability, some weak/briefly
rotating cells will be possible. While weak instability and somewhat
modest large-scale ascent will limit overall severe potential, at
least a couple of strong gusts or perhaps a brief tornado will be
possible, and a Marginal risk has been introduced to parts of
northern/central AL.

..Leitman.. 10/05/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 060553
SWODY2
SPC AC 060551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will be likely on Thursday from parts of the
Southeast northward into the southern Great Lakes. Additional
thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Intermountain West
to the northern Plains. No severe threat is expected Thursday or
Thursday night.

...DISCUSSION...
Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place in the western U.S. on
Thursday as an upper-level low moves northward across the mid
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located
from parts of the Southeast northward to the southern Great Lakes.
As surface temperature warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop within much of the moist airmass.
Instability should remain weak in most areas on Thursday which will
likely limit the potential for severe storms. Scattered
thunderstorms are also forecast to develop in parts of the
Intermountain West Thursday afternoon. These storms are also
expected to remain sub-severe.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 061714
SWODY2
SPC AC 061713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will be likely on Thursday from parts of the
Southeast northward into the southern Great Lakes. Additional
thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Intermountain West
to the northern Plains. Severe potential is expected to be low with
this activity on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over the mid-MS Valley will shift east/northeast toward
southern Lake Michigan by Friday morning, with an attendant trough
extending southward to the northern Gulf coast. A moist airmass will
reside across much of the Southeast into the Ohio Valley. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Thursday morning,
along with widespread cloudiness. This will serve to limit heating
and destabilization, despite a moist airmass. As such, instability
will remain weak. While a couple of strong storms could develop
across northern GA/SC, overall severe potential appears too limited
to include probabilities at this time.

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist across the western states
as a series of weak shortwave impulses migrate across the Great
Basin. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from northeast NV into
northern UT/southeast ID during the late afternoon/evening.
Instability will remain weak and vertical shear modest. However,
steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region. While overall
severe potential will remain low, a couple of storms could produce
small hail, mainly across northern UT.

..Leitman.. 10/06/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 070552
SWODY2
SPC AC 070551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail are expected to
develop across parts of the northern Plains from late Friday
afternoon through the evening and into the early overnight period.

...Northern Plains...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Friday from the Desert
Southwest to the Great Plains. A shortwave trough will move
northeastward from the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across the Dakotas as southeasterly winds increase low-level
moisture across Minnesota, northeastern South Dakota and eastern
North Dakota. A small pocket of moderate instability could develop
ahead of the front as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along parts of the front
during the late afternoon, with a couple of small convective
clusters likely to persist into the evening. NAM forecast soundings
at 00Z/Saturday at Grand Forks have MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg with 0-6
km shear in the 20 to 25 kt range. This combined with steep lapse
rates above 850 mb may be enough for a marginal hail and wind-damage
threat.

Thunderstorm coverage is expected increase during the overnight
period as a low-level flow strengthens across eastern South Dakota.
Although a surface temperature inversion is forecast to form in the
mid to late evening, elevated thunderstorms that can develop on the
western and northern edge of the small low-level jet maxima may have
a potential for isolated large hail. Will keep the severe threat at
marginal for this outlook mainly due to effective shear which is
considered to remain on the low side for severe, and due to the
timing of the upper-level trough which has it moving away from the
northern Plains during the evening.

..Broyles.. 10/07/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 071703
SWODY2
SPC AC 071701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GA INTO
NORTHERN FL...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated hail are expected to develop
across parts of the northern Plains from late Friday afternoon into
the early overnight period. Additional strong storms capable of
strong wind gusts and hail are possible across parts of southern
Georgia into northern Florida through Friday evening.

...Northern Plains...

Forecast guidance is inconsistent in how much convection will
develop through early evening across parts of the northern Plains.
Capping around 850-700 mb will likely preclude more than very
isolated thunderstorm development through the day. However, a weak
shortwave impulse is forecast to eject into ND/SD by early evening
and increasing ascent may allow for isolated elevated storms.
Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and modest midlevel
lapse rates will support a corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid
20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. Any stronger storms that
develop could produce marginally severe hail.

...Southern GA/Northern FL...

An upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Friday.
Deep-layer flow will remain fairly weak, but cooling aloft will
result in modestly steepening midlevel lapse rates. While cloud
cover and some areas of showers/thunderstorms persisting through the
period will limit stronger heating, surface dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s will foster moderate instability across the region.
Effective shear magnitudes around 25 kt may allow for some briefly
organized, stronger cells/clusters capable of marginal hail and
locally strong wind gusts through early evening.

...Northeast NV/Northern UT/Southeast ID...

The western upper trough will eject eastward over the Great Basin
and northern Rockies on Friday. A surface cold front will sweep
east/southeast across the region during the afternoon/evening and
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are expected.
Boundary-layer moisture and instability will be less compared to Day 1/Thursday, but modest vertical shear and steep midlevel lapse rates
will still be in place. A couple of strong storms could produce
small hail, but overall severe potential appears low at this time.

..Leitman.. 10/07/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 080608
SWODY2
SPC AC 080606

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/locally severe storms -- capable of producing hail,
and perhaps a few damaging wind gusts -- will be possible across
parts of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is forecast to sweep steadily eastward across the
western half of the U.S. this period, and should reach a position
from the eastern Dakotas southwestward to New Mexico by Sunday
morning. Farther east, a weaker trough will linger over the eastern
states through the period.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift into/across the
Plains states, while a weak disturbance lingers near or just off the
Carolina coast through the period.

...Eastern Dakotas into portions of Minnesota...
As a surface low and cold front cross the north-central states
through the day, mid-level lapse rates are expected to steep atop a
capped boundary layer, as cool mid-level air associated with an
evolving upper low spreads eastward. Warm-sector heating and mixing
should allow some weakening of the cap across the eastern Dakotas,
along with modest destabilization, likely leading to scattered storm development by late afternoon.

With ample speed and directional shear to support organized/rotating
storms, a few stronger cells are expected, with hail likely the
primary risk. As storms spread eastward during the evening, a
cooling boundary layer should limit wind risk, but hail potential
will likely persist with stronger storms. Storms should approach
the Upper Mississippi Valley area overnight.

...Coastal North Carolina...
A weak surface disturbance lying over the Gulf Stream is progged by
some models (particularly the NAM) to approach -- or even reach --
the North Carolina Coast overnight, while others keep the low
farther offshore.

Should the low near the coast, inland surface flow -- progged to
remain northerly/northeasterly through the first half of the period
could turn more easterly, yielding an overall low-level wind profile
supportive of low-level rotation. As such, given the very moist
low-level airmass that would also advect inland in such a scenario,
a tornado cannot be ruled out. However, given model uncertainty as
to the low's position, will refrain from introduction of any severe probabilities at this time.

..Goss.. 10/08/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 081712
SWODY2
SPC AC 081710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND...NORTHEAST SD AND WEST-CENTRAL MN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/locally severe storms -- capable of producing hail,
and perhaps a few damaging wind gusts -- will be possible across
parts of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough will eject eastward, developing an upper low,
over the northern Plains on Saturday. This will bring a belt of
moderate southwesterly mid/upper level flow over the mid-MO/upper MS
Valleys by late afternoon. A surface low near the MT/ND/SD border
early Saturday will deepen while slowly shifting east/northeast
across ND through the period. This will bring a cold front sweeping
eastward across the northern/central Plains from late afternoon
through the overnight period.

...ND/SD/MN Vicinity...

South/southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold
front will maintain modest boundary-layer moisture across the
region, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. Cooling aloft
with the approach of the upper low will result in steepening
midlevel lapse rates, aiding in weak destabilization from late
afternoon into the evening atop low-level capping. Increasing ascent
and low-level warm advection should result in weakening of the cap,
but convection may tend to remain elevated. Favorable veering
vertical wind profiles will result in effective shear magnitudes
around 25-30 kt, allowing for isolated organized convection.
Isolated large hail and locally strong gusts will be the main
hazards with this activity from late afternoon into the early
overnight period. Increasing boundary-layer inhibition overnight
should limit greater severe wind potential despite an increasing
low-level jet.

..Leitman.. 10/08/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 090602
SWODY2
SPC AC 090601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are forecast from Sunday afternoon onward
across portions of the southern Plains and vicinity, with large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible.

...Synopsis...
As a large-scale northern-stream trough digs quickly southeastward
out of western Canada into/across the northwestern states, a lead
trough -- comprised of discrete northern- and southern-stream
features -- will eject eastward/east-northeastward across the
central U.S. through the period. Specifically, the northern-stream
low will shift northeastward across Minnesota and into western
Ontario late. Meanwhile, the southern-stream trough will move
quickly out of the Four Corners states into the central/southern
High Plains by afternoon, and then will continue east-northeastward
-- taking on slight negative tilt with time -- as it reaches eastern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma/East Texas by the end of the period.

At the surface, a cold front will shift southeastward across the
Intermountain West ahead of the digging western upper trough.
Meanwhile, a cold front will move gradually across the Upper
Mississippi/mid Missouri/Kansas and the southern High Plains through
the afternoon. A frontal wave is progged to develop by late
afternoon over western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma, and then
shift quickly northeastward into Missouri overnight, as the trailing
cold front sweeps quickly southeastward across the southern Plains
through the end of the period.

...Eastern portions of Oklahoma/Texas and vicinity...
As an fairly potent mid-level short-wave trough moves into the
southern Plains region during the afternoon, focused ascent along
the sharpening cold front should result in frontal cyclogenesis in
the north Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity. Daytime heating of
a capped warm-sector, beneath steep lapse rates aloft, will result
in moderate destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
expected across central Oklahoma and southward into Texas by late
afternoon.

At this time, it appears that initial surface-based storm
development will occur in the western North Texas/southwestern
Oklahoma area, during the late afternoon time frame. With
increasingly strong mid-level flow overspreading increasingly strong
low-level south-southwesterlies, and boundary-layer flow backed to south-southeasterly ahead of the evolving surface low, shear
favorable for supercells, including low-level rotation, suggests
risk for large hail, damaging winds, and -- for the first few hours
of the event -- a few tornadoes, as storms move northeastward into
the central third of Oklahoma and adjacent North Texas.

With time, upscale growth is expected to result in a semi-broken to
continuous line of storms, spreading eastward from southern Kansas
southward into northern/central Texas. Strong/veering flow with
height suggests rotating updrafts will remain possible within the
line, and so a tornado or two will remain possible well into the
evening. Gradually though, risk will trend toward mainly damaging
winds, as the storms eventually reach Missouri/Arkansas/east Texas
through the end of the period.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region... Scattered/ongoing showers and thunderstorms may pose risk for hail
early in the period, with some chance for local instances of hail
near severe levels. Storms will largely spread northeastward across
northern Minnesota and Lake Superior and into Canada through the
day, but isolated, low-topped storm redevelopment -- fueled by
modest heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures -- may occur
during the afternoon. Again, storms could locally pose a risk for
hail, possibly near severe levels in conjunction with a couple of
the strongest updrafts, but at this time coverage of storms appears
likely to remain limited, and thus will maintain only MRGL risk
across this area, through early evening.

..Goss.. 10/09/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 090647
SWODY2
SPC AC 090645

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE COLOR OVER FLORIDA

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are forecast from Sunday afternoon onward
across portions of the southern Plains and vicinity, with large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible.

...Synopsis...
As a large-scale northern-stream trough digs quickly southeastward
out of western Canada into/across the northwestern states, a lead
trough -- comprised of discrete northern- and southern-stream
features -- will eject eastward/east-northeastward across the
central U.S. through the period. Specifically, the northern-stream
low will shift northeastward across Minnesota and into western
Ontario late. Meanwhile, the southern-stream trough will move
quickly out of the Four Corners states into the central/southern
High Plains by afternoon, and then will continue east-northeastward
-- taking on slight negative tilt with time -- as it reaches eastern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma/East Texas by the end of the period.

At the surface, a cold front will shift southeastward across the
Intermountain West ahead of the digging western upper trough.
Meanwhile, a cold front will move gradually across the Upper
Mississippi/mid Missouri/Kansas and the southern High Plains through
the afternoon. A frontal wave is progged to develop by late
afternoon over western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma, and then
shift quickly northeastward into Missouri overnight, as the trailing
cold front sweeps quickly southeastward across the southern Plains
through the end of the period.

...Eastern portions of Oklahoma/Texas and vicinity...
As an fairly potent mid-level short-wave trough moves into the
southern Plains region during the afternoon, focused ascent along
the sharpening cold front should result in frontal cyclogenesis in
the north Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity. Daytime heating of
a capped warm-sector, beneath steep lapse rates aloft, will result
in moderate destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
expected across central Oklahoma and southward into Texas by late
afternoon.

At this time, it appears that initial surface-based storm
development will occur in the western North Texas/southwestern
Oklahoma area, during the late afternoon time frame. With
increasingly strong mid-level flow overspreading increasingly strong
low-level south-southwesterlies, and boundary-layer flow backed to south-southeasterly ahead of the evolving surface low, shear
favorable for supercells, including low-level rotation, suggests
risk for large hail, damaging winds, and -- for the first few hours
of the event -- a few tornadoes, as storms move northeastward into
the central third of Oklahoma and adjacent North Texas.

With time, upscale growth is expected to result in a semi-broken to
continuous line of storms, spreading eastward from southern Kansas
southward into northern/central Texas. Strong/veering flow with
height suggests rotating updrafts will remain possible within the
line, and so a tornado or two will remain possible well into the
evening. Gradually though, risk will trend toward mainly damaging
winds, as the storms eventually reach Missouri/Arkansas/east Texas
through the end of the period.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region... Scattered/ongoing showers and thunderstorms may pose risk for hail
early in the period, with some chance for local instances of hail
near severe levels. Storms will largely spread northeastward across
northern Minnesota and Lake Superior and into Canada through the
day, but isolated, low-topped storm redevelopment -- fueled by
modest heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures -- may occur
during the afternoon. Again, storms could locally pose a risk for
hail, possibly near severe levels in conjunction with a couple of
the strongest updrafts, but at this time coverage of storms appears
likely to remain limited, and thus will maintain only MRGL risk
across this area, through early evening.

..Goss.. 10/09/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 091720
SWODY2
SPC AC 091718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are forecast from Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night across portions of the southern Plains and vicinity, with
large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible.

...Southern Plains...

Overall forecast remains similar to the initial Day 2 Outlook. As a
potent upper trough ejects into the southern Plains by late Sunday
afternoon, moderate/strong vertical shear and large-scale ascent
will overspread the region. Capping will limit convection much of
the day, but low-level warm advection coupled with strong forcing
should sufficiently erode the cap by late afternoon/early evening. A
surface low is forecast to deepen across western North Texas and
develop northeast across OK during the evening, and into MO
overnight. Backed/south-southeasterly low level winds beneath
southwesterly mid/upper level flow will result in effective shear
magnitudes greater than 45 kt and favorably curved low-level
hodographs. Mid 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability across the
warm sector, with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE expected.

A 10% SIG tornado area has been added for portions of southwest OK
near the surface low where at least a brief window of opportunity
will exist for a few discrete supercells early in convective
evolution (22z-02z). Initial convection near the surface low and
cold front across north/central OK, as well as along a dryline
extending southward into central TX, also will pose a threat for
large hail given favorable shear and steep midlevel lapse rates.

As the sharp cold front shifts south/southeast in conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet during the evening, convection is
expected to quickly expand in coverage across OK/TX and grow upscale
into a severe QLCS. Damaging wind gusts will become the primary
hazard with linear convection. However, low-level shear will remain
strong, with forecast soundings maintaining favorable hodographs for
rotation, and a few QLCS tornadoes may accompany the line of
convection as it spreads eastward across OK and North Texas.

...Upper Midwest...

An upper low and attendant trough will lift northeast across the
Upper Midwest on Sunday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing
Sunday morning, and pose a threat for marginally severe hail. A
surface low near the ND/MN border will lift northeast through the
day, bringing a warm front north of the international border. If
enough heating can occur, another round of convection may develop
during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate vertical shear
amid weak instability will support a threat for marginally severe
hail and strong gusts.

...NC Outer Banks...

A surface low is forecast to be located near/just offshore the Outer
Banks vicinity early Sunday. Most forecast guidance keeps the low
offshore, but strong low-level north/northeasterly flow will impinge
on the coast. Weak instability amid 20-30 kt effective shear
magnitudes could result in a few strong cells capable of gusty
winds. A very moist, tropical airmass will be in place, but 0-3 km
MLCAPE is forecast to remain weak. While curved low-level hodographs
are forecast, overall tornado potential appears too low/uncertain to
include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 10/09/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 100559
SWODY2
SPC AC 100558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms -- including potential for hail,
locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- are expected to
spread from the Mid Mississippi Valley region early,
north-northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes through the
evening/overnight hours Monday and into early Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough digging south-southeastward across California and
the Great Basin Monday will evolve into a closed low, which is
expected deepen and turn eastward overnight reaching the
southwestern Utah vicinity Tuesday morning. Ahead of this system, a
negatively tilted short-wave trough will be shifting northeastward
across the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys during the
day, before crossing the Upper Great Lakes region overnight.
Meanwhile, ridging will remain in place -- aligned roughly along the Appalachians.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the western U.S. trough
will sweep across the Great Basin and into the Four Corners states.
Meanwhile, a cold front shifting eastward out of the southern Plains
toward the Mississippi Valley will weaken with time, while an
associated/weak frontal low advances northeastward from Missouri to Wisconsin/Upper Michigan through the period.

...Mid Mississippi Valley northward into the Upper Great Lakes...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
start of the period from western Illinois/Missouri
south-southwestward to southeastern Texas, ahead of an advancing
cold front. A couple of stronger storms ongoing early could pose
local risk for severe weather. After a few hours of local/limited
risk, diurnal heating through late morning and into the afternoon
will permit sufficient destabilization to allow gradual reintensification/redevelopment of storms, from Illinois to the
Mississippi Delta region, then spreading northward and northeastward
through the afternoon. Though flow aloft will remain largely south-southwesterly/unidirectional, sufficient speed shear combined
with weak veering through the lowest 1 km or so suggests that
locally severe/rotating storms will evolve, with threat for damaging
wind gusts, along with some hail risk and potential for a couple of
tornadoes across a relatively broad geographic region.

A bit more uncertainty exists with northward extent, and into the
evening hours, into the Great Lakes region. While ascent will
spread across this region supporting a continuation of convection
through the evening and into the overnight hours, less substantial
instability -- diminishing further in tandem with diurnal cooling --
suggests that severe risk will wane gradually from late evening
onward.

..Goss.. 10/10/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 101706
SWODY2
SPC AC 101704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms -- including potential for hail,
locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- are expected to
spread from the Mid Mississippi Valley region early,
north-northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes through the evening
hours Monday.

...Great Lakes to Mid-MS Valley...

A potent upper trough will develop a closed low as it lifts
northeast across the region on Monday. Strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow will become more meridional with time, but
increasing winds speeds with height will maintain strong vertical
shear. At the surface, a low will track north/northeast from
northern MO toward the U.P. of MI while a cold front surges east
across the mid-MS Valley into Lower MI and the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday morning. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place
ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the low 60s,
increasing to the mid-60s toward TN/MS.

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across AR/MO/western IL/eastern IA in the vicinity of the
surface low and cold front. Locally gusty winds and hail could
accompany this activity. As the downstream airmass warms, weak
destabilization will occur and convection will redevelop/intensify
across parts of WI/IL into western IN/MI. Deep-layer flow will
mostly be unidirectional, but sufficient speed shear is resulting in
some enlarged, curved low-level hodographs. As a result, a mixed
mode of clusters/lines and semi-discrete cells will be possible with
locally damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes possible
across a relatively broad area. As deep-layer flow becomes more
meridional, convection may tend to become undercut by the surging
cold front. If this occurs, the severe threat will be somewhat
diminished as convection becomes elevated. The severe threat should
diminish with southward extent as large-scale forcing lessens and
midlevel capping/subsidence becomes more of a concern further from
the upper trough/low.

..Leitman.. 10/10/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 110554
SWODY2
SPC AC 110553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening/overnight across a
region focused on the central Plains, where an all-hazards severe
risk is anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level short-wave trough crossing the Great Lakes region
through the first half of the period will shift northeastward into
Canada with time, ahead of a larger upper system progressing
steadily east-northeastward across the West. This system --
comprised of a deep/vigorous upper low -- will likely cross the
western Nebraska region and reach the southwestern South Dakota
vicinity by the end of the period.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the East, and will
expand across the western states with time. In between, a low
initially over the Four Corners vicinity is forecast to deepen --
and eventually occlude -- as it shifts quickly northeastward in
tandem with the upper system. A cold front trailing from the low
will shift into across the High Plains during the early evening
hours, and then across the central Plains and into central portions
of the southern Plains through the end of the period.

...Portions of the central and southern Plains...
As a strong upper system -- and associated surface low/cold front --
advance across the southern and central Rockies through the day,
theta-e return will be underway across the southern Plains as south-southeasterly warm sector flow strengthens with time. With
that said, current model forecasts suggest that northward moistening
will be less aggressive, with the warm-sector boundary layer to
remain slightly stable -- particularly north of the Kansas/Oklahoma
border. As such, prospects for surface-based severe weather
(damaging wind gusts/tornadoes) appears more limited than indicated
earlier.

Still, given the strength of the ejecting system and associated
deep-layer flow, and steep lapse rates aloft above the weakly stable
boundary layer, it appears that thunderstorm development remains
likely from parts of western Nebraska southward to the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity around sunset. As the storms
spread quickly eastward and expand in coverage with time,
upscale/linear growth is expected. The result will likely be a
rather broad area of potential for strong wind gusts, though
intensity of the downdrafts may be muted a bit due to the
anticipated boundary-layer stability. Hail will also be possible,
as will a couple of tornadoes through the evening and into the
overnight hours.

..Goss.. 10/11/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 111721
SWODY2
SPC AC 111719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening/overnight across
portions of the central and southern Plains, where an all-hazards
severe risk is anticipated.

...Central/Southern Plains...

A potent upper low/trough is forecast to pivot northeast from the
Four Corners vicinity into the central Plains on Tuesday, bringing a
belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow over the region. At the
surface, deepening low pressure will track across the central
Rockies into NE/SD while a cold front sharpens and shifts east
across NE/KS into OK/TX during the evening/overnight period. An
initial dry and stable boundary-layer will quickly moisten through
the day as southerly low-level return flow strengthens in response
to lee cyclogenesis. While guidance varies, some daytime threat for
elevated convection will exist across central/northern TX in the
strong warm advection regime, and a broad Marginal risk has been
expanded across this region.

As large-scale forcing increases toward 00z, convection is expected
to develop near the surface low southward along the cold front from
western NE/KS into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK. At this
time, forecast guidance maintains at least weak low-level
inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing coupled with intense
low/midlevel flow and surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s as far
north a the NE/KS border will support rapid development of organized
convection near the cold front. Given strong forcing along the cold
front, convection likely will become linear quickly. Supercell wind
profiles from KS southward will still support rotating cells within
the line with an accompanying threat for large hail and a couple of
tornadoes in addition to damaging gusts. A narrow corridor may exist
across parts of southern KS into northwest OK such that if deeper
moisture arrives earlier (as suggested by at least some guidance),
some increased potential for significant gusts (65+ kt) and/or
greater tornado threat could materialize. However, uncertainty is
too great at this time to include SIG wind/higher tornado
probabilities and trends will be monitored.

A well-organized squall line is expected to shift eastward across
KS/OK/TX through the overnight period with an accompanying threat
for wind/hail and a couple of tornadoes. The severe threat will
diminish with northward extent across NE/SD where greater
instability will be limited by weak moisture return compared to
further south. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer flow and steep
midlevel lapse rates will support a threat for hail and damaging
gusts with stronger storms during the evening/overnight hours.

..Leitman.. 10/11/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 120550
SWODY2
SPC AC 120549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms spreading across portions of the Midwest and into the
Upper Great Lakes may locally pose limited severe risk Wednesday,
while evening overnight storms across parts of southern Texas may
also pose limited severe risk.

...Synopsis...
An upper low progged to be lying over the northwestern
Nebraska/western South Dakota area Wednesday morning will shift north-northeastward with time, reaching the international border by
the end of the period. Meanwhile, troughing/broadly cyclonic flow
in the wake of this low will reside/slowly progress across the
western states through the period.

At the surface, a deeply occluded low nearly co-located with the
upper system will likewise cross the northern Plains, while a cold
front shifts eastward into/across the Upper and Middle Mississippi
Valley through the period.

...Midwest/Upper Great Lakes region...
Rather widespread early/ongoing precipitation across the Mid and
Lower Missouri Valley will spread northeastward across the Upper
Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes through the period. This
precipitation and associated cloud cover will limit destabilization
potential across the MRGL risk area, i.e. near the triple point and
into the warm sector of the occluded low. Still, sufficient shear
for organized storms will be available, such that a few stronger
storms/storm clusters evolving where pockets of modest
destabilization occur could become locally/briefly severe. As such,
will maintain MRGL risk for a few strong wind gusts, along with
potential for a tornado into the evening hours.

...Parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley into the Hill Country of
southern Texas...
Progression of a cold front across Texas early in the period will
slow/become hindered with time, as remnants of tropical system
Pamela (now over the eastern Pacific west of Mexico) shift across
Mexico toward -- and eventually into -- southern Texas overnight.

Deep-layer moisture increasing with time will keep lapse rates aloft
weak, and thus CAPE limited, but increasingly favorable low-level
shear with time may support a few stronger/rotating storms. As
such, risk for a locally damaging wind gust, along with some tornado
potential, warrants upgrade to MRGL risk across parts of southern
Texas for the evening and overnight portion of the period.

..Goss.. 10/12/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 120619
SWODY2
SPC AC 120618

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS...

CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms spreading across portions of the Midwest and into the
Upper Great Lakes may locally pose limited severe risk Wednesday,
while evening overnight storms across parts of southern Texas may
also pose limited severe risk.

...Synopsis...
An upper low progged to be lying over the northwestern
Nebraska/western South Dakota area Wednesday morning will shift north-northeastward with time, reaching the international border by
the end of the period. Meanwhile, troughing/broadly cyclonic flow
in the wake of this low will reside/slowly progress across the
western states through the period.

At the surface, a deeply occluded low nearly co-located with the
upper system will likewise cross the northern Plains, while a cold
front shifts eastward into/across the Upper and Middle Mississippi
Valley through the period.

...Midwest/Upper Great Lakes region...
Rather widespread early/ongoing precipitation across the Mid and
Lower Missouri Valley will spread northeastward across the Upper
Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes through the period. This
precipitation and associated cloud cover will limit destabilization
potential across the MRGL risk area, i.e. near the triple point and
into the warm sector of the occluded low. Still, sufficient shear
for organized storms will be available, such that a few stronger
storms/storm clusters evolving where pockets of modest
destabilization occur could become locally/briefly severe. As such,
will maintain MRGL risk for a few strong wind gusts, along with
potential for a tornado into the evening hours.

...Parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley into the Hill Country of
southern Texas...
Progression of a cold front across Texas early in the period will
slow/become hindered with time, as remnants of tropical system
Pamela (now over the eastern Pacific west of Mexico) shift across
Mexico toward -- and eventually into -- southern Texas overnight.

Deep-layer moisture increasing with time will keep lapse rates aloft
weak, and thus CAPE limited, but increasingly favorable low-level
shear with time may support a few stronger/rotating storms. As
such, risk for a locally damaging wind gust, along with some tornado
potential, warrants upgrade to MRGL risk across parts of southern
Texas for the evening and overnight portion of the period.

..Goss.. 10/12/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 121722
SWODY2
SPC AC 121720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe risk may develop Wednesday across portions of
eastern South Dakota, the middle to upper Mississippi Valley and
western Great Lakes, and portions of south-central Texas.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will move northeastward from northern NE to southern Saskatchewan during the period as an intense speed max moves from
the central Great Plains into the western Great Lakes. In the low
levels, a surface low will develop northeast from southern SD into
southern Saskatchewan while a trailing cold front sweeps east across
much of the Midwest with the trailing portion of the boundary
stalling over the southern Great Plains.

...Eastern SD vicinity...
Elevated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning in association
with strong deep-layer forcing for ascent. In wake of this
early-day activity, strong mid-level cold air advection will result
in weak instability developing within a narrow ribbon ahead of the
surface boundary. A conditional, albeit plausible scenario is for
convection to develop during the mid-late morning on the wind shift.
Forecast soundings indicate a couple of the stronger updrafts --if
they manage to develop-- will be capable of an isolated risk for
severe before this activity moves north and weakens by midday.

...Midwest/western Great Lakes...
Rather widespread early/ongoing precipitation across the Mid and
Lower Missouri Valley will spread northeastward across the Upper
Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes through the period. This
precipitation and associated cloud cover will limit destabilization
potential across the MRGL risk area, i.e. near the triple point and
into the warm sector of the occluded low. Still, sufficient shear
for organized storms will be available, such that a few stronger
storms/storm clusters evolving where pockets of modest
destabilization occur could become locally/briefly severe. Have
adjusted low-severe probabilities slightly westward where
surface-based initiation may occur and to account for limited destabilization/severe potential on the eastern part of the MRGL
risk. The risk for the stronger storms will be gusts and perhaps a
tornado, primarily during the late afternoon through the evening
hours.

...Parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley into the Hill Country of
southern Texas...
Progression of a cold front across Texas early in the period will
slow/become hindered with time, as remnants of tropical system
Pamela (now over the eastern Pacific west of Mexico) shift across
Mexico toward -- and eventually into -- southern Texas overnight.

Deep-layer moisture increasing with time will keep lapse rates aloft
weak, and thus CAPE limited, but increasingly favorable low-level
shear with time may support a few stronger/rotating storms. A
localized risk for a severe gust and perhaps a tornado will focus
across south-central TX during the evening and overnight.

..Smith.. 10/12/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 130553
SWODY2
SPC AC 130551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather risk appears low across the CONUS on Thursday.

...Discussion...
As an upper cyclone, and associated/occluded surface low, shift away
from the north-central U.S. and across the Canadian Prairie, a
weakening cold front will shift eastward across the Midwest.

Farther to the southwest, the front will linger from the Ozarks
vicinity into the southern Plains, as short-wave troughing digs
southeastward across the West, around the back side and into the
base of a larger-scale, slowly progressive trough.

As this feature reaches the base of the wave over the southern
Rockies through late afternoon/early evening, a weak frontal low
will begin to organize over the southern High Plains vicinity, and
then develop northeastward along the front through the second half
of the period. By Friday morning, the low is progged to reach
Illinois, with a trailing cold front extending southwestward across
central and western Texas.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing
near/ahead of this evolving baroclinic zone -- from the Great
Lakes/Midwest southwestward into the southern Plains. However, at
this time it appears that limited instability across the region will
temper storm intensity overall. While a few locally stronger
storms/storm clusters may evolve, severe risk appears at this time
to remain low -- precluding the introduction of any risk areas at
this time.

..Goss.. 10/13/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 131731
SWODY2
SPC AC 131729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
Lower 48 states on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-upper cyclone,situated over south-central Canada, will
gradually move away from the Midwest and a weakening cold front will
push east across the parts of the Midwest with the trailing portion
of the boundary located over the central Great Plains. A cyclonic
belt of mid-level flow will be maintained across the central U.S. as
another speed max moves southeastward from the Intermountain West
into the southern Great Plains by early Friday morning.

As this upper feature reaches the southern Rockies by early evening,
a weak frontal low will begin to organize over the southern High
Plains vicinity, and then develop northeastward along the front
through the second half of the period. By Friday morning, the low
will reach the Ozarks with a trailing cold front extending
southwestward and bisecting OK into northwest TX.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing
near/ahead of this evolving baroclinic zone -- from the Great
Lakes/Midwest southwestward into the southern Plains. However, at
this time it appears that limited instability across the region will
temper storm intensity overall.

...OK Thursday night...
Model guidance shows the progression of an arctic and pacific cold
front into the state by early evening. Relatively weak low-level
southerly flow will maintain a reservoir of 60s dewpoints and
generally weak buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg). Model guidance
indicates a cluster of convection may develop late as large-scale
ascent associated with the upstream disturbance and frontal lift
protrude on the airmass over central OK. It remains
unclear/uncertain whether a few stronger storms will develop from
this activity late Thursday night. Will defer the possible
introduction of low-severe probabilities to later outlook updates.

..Smith.. 10/13/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 131731
SWODY2
SPC AC 131729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
Lower 48 states on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-upper cyclone,situated over south-central Canada, will
gradually move away from the Midwest and a weakening cold front will
push east across the parts of the Midwest with the trailing portion
of the boundary located over the central Great Plains. A cyclonic
belt of mid-level flow will be maintained across the central U.S. as
another speed max moves southeastward from the Intermountain West
into the southern Great Plains by early Friday morning.

As this upper feature reaches the southern Rockies by early evening,
a weak frontal low will begin to organize over the southern High
Plains vicinity, and then develop northeastward along the front
through the second half of the period. By Friday morning, the low
will reach the Ozarks with a trailing cold front extending
southwestward and bisecting OK into northwest TX.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing
near/ahead of this evolving baroclinic zone -- from the Great
Lakes/Midwest southwestward into the southern Plains. However, at
this time it appears that limited instability across the region will
temper storm intensity overall.

...OK Thursday night...
Model guidance shows the progression of an arctic and pacific cold
front into the state by early evening. Relatively weak low-level
southerly flow will maintain a reservoir of 60s dewpoints and
generally weak buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg). Model guidance
indicates a cluster of convection may develop late as large-scale
ascent associated with the upstream disturbance and frontal lift
protrude on the airmass over central OK. It remains
unclear/uncertain whether a few stronger storms will develop from
this activity late Thursday night. Will defer the possible
introduction of low-severe probabilities to later outlook updates.

..Smith.. 10/13/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 140601
SWODY2
SPC AC 140559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for isolated severe storms will likely evolve within an area
focused across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys Friday and into
Friday evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary
risk, along with some potential for marginal hail and a tornado or
two.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale upper flow pattern across the U.S. Friday will begin
with a trough extending across the central third of the country, and
ridges flanking the trough over both the western and eastern states.
Eastward progression of the trough will occur through the period,
as it reaches a position from the Upper Great Lakes southward to the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

At the surface, a weak frontal wave initially over eastern Oklahoma
is forecast to deepen gradually as it shifts quickly northeastward
along a pre-existing baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest to
the southern Plains. As the low shifts northeastward, the trailing
portion of the front will sharpen/advance quickly
eastward/southeastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians
by the end of the period.

...Lower Great Lakes southwestward across the Mid Mississippi Valley
area...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing from
the Midwest to eastern portions of the southern Plains early Friday,
near and ahead of the surface front progged to lie across this area.

As the upper system advances, supporting a cyclogenetic,
northeastward-moving surface low that will cross the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys through the day,
moistening/destabilization will occur across the warm sector.
Resulting evolution of 500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE just ahead
of the low track will foster an increase in storm coverage/intensity
along and ahead of the front into the afternoon hours. More
isolated, afternoon convection may occur farther northeast -- into
parts of the central Appalachians, in a more modestly destabilizing, warm-advection regime.

As increasingly strong deep-layer flow overspreads the risk area
with time, organized/severe storms will gradually increase,
maximizing through the afternoon and very early evening hours.
Bands of storms in the vicinity of the front -- including rotating
updrafts -- are expected through the afternoon -- particularly from
the Mid Mississippi to the lower Ohio Valley. This activity will
eventually grow upscale into a more linear configuration into the
afternoon before storms weaken diurnally.

Locally damaging winds will likely remain the primary severe risk,
given somewhat modest CAPE across much of the area being offset by
favorably strong kinematics. Where instability can be maximized
across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley regions during the
afternoon, risk for hail and a tornado or two will accompany the
damaging wind potential.

As the main ascent shifts east-northeastward into the evening, the
frontal band of storms crossing the Tennessee Valley area should
weaken, as it advances across the central Gulf Coast states.
Meanwhile though, severe threat may linger well into the evening
across areas bordering the mid and upper Ohio Valley, before
diminishing gradually after midnight.

..Goss.. 10/14/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 141727
SWODY2
SPC AC 141725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for isolated severe storms will likely evolve within an area
focused across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys Friday and into
Friday evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary
risk, along with some potential for marginal hail and a tornado or
two.

...Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid South...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing
Friday morning ahead of an eastward-migrating mid-level trough
located over the central U.S. A surface front will be draped from
the Great Lakes southwestward into the Ozarks. As the upper system
advances, two weak areas of low pressure will move across the OH
Valley and Ozarks/MS Valley during the day. Moist, southerly
low-level flow will result in a reservoir of 60s dewpoints across
the OH Valley and lower 70s over the lower MS Valley. Despite the
presence of considerable cloud cover and scattered areas of
convection, model guidance indicates 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is
expected to develop by mid afternoon.

As increasingly strong deep-layer flow overspreads the risk area
with time, organized/severe storms will gradually increase,
maximizing through the afternoon and early evening. Organized
multicells clusters and a couple of supercells are forecast from the
OH Valley southwestward to the TN/AR/KY/MO border vicinity.
Damaging winds will likely remain the primary severe risk, but a
tornado is possible if a supercell or two can develop near the
surface low over the OH Valley. The tornado risk may also focus
farther southwest over western TN where long hodographs and moist
low levels may support a higher concentration of low-level
mesocyclone potential. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates will
likely limit hail growth with only isolated hail coverage expected.
As the main ascent shifts east-northeastward into the evening, the
frontal band of storms crossing the Tennessee Valley area should
weaken, as it advances across the central Gulf Coast states.
Meanwhile though, the severe threat may linger well into the evening
across areas bordering the mid and upper Ohio Valley, before
diminishing gradually after midnight.

..Smith.. 10/14/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 150557
SWODY2
SPC AC 150556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Potential for a few wind gusts near severe levels will exist across
portions of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong upper trough will shift quickly across the
eastern U.S. Saturday, with ridging to prevail upstream across the
remainder of the country.

At the surface, a sharp cold front -- progged to lie near or just
east of the Appalachian crest at the start of the day -- clearing
the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts by evening. By Sunday
morning, the front will likely have moved entirely offshore, with
the exception of South Florida and the Keys.

...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and into New England...
It remains apparent that only minimal pre-frontal instability will
be available across northeastern portions of the U.S. ahead of the
approaching storm system, and as such, expectations are that
potential for severe-caliber wind gusts will remain minimal/very
localized.

As strong ascent spreads across the area, focused along the front,
showers and low-topped thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing, and
should increase somewhat diurnally as what afternoon bolstering of
CAPE will be possible, reaches its maximum. Strong flow aloft will
support fast storm motions, and as such, gusty winds will be likely
with the low-topped bands of convection. However, given the weak
CAPE, degree of convective augmentation of suggests that most gusts
should remain in the 35 to 45 MPH range.

Any severe risk ongoing through the afternoon should diminish into
early evening, due to diurnal stabilization effects.

..Goss.. 10/15/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 151712
SWODY2
SPC AC 151711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Potential for a few damaging wind gusts will exist across portions
of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper trough is forecast to extend from northern Manitoba
across western Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, and
the Mid MS Valley early Saturday. This upper trough is expected to
move northeastward throughout the day, encouraged by the fast
northeastward progression of an embedded shortwave trough moving
from the middle OH Valley/Lower MI through the Northeast into New
England. A surface low attendant to this embedded shortwave is
expected to begin the period over far southern Quebec before
continuing northward while occluding. Cold front attendant to this
low will push eastward throughout the day, from its early morning
position just east of the Appalachian crest to off the Eastern
Seaboard. By early Sunday morning, the front will likely have moved
entirely offshore, with the exception of South Florida and the Keys.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this front,
with the strong flow aloft in place from northern Mid-Atlantic into
New England contributing to the potential for a few more robust
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. However, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain isolated, owing to limited
heating/buoyancy ahead of the front. Most likely corridor for strong
gusts currently appears to be from eastern PA northeastward across northern/central NJ and the Hudson Valley into western MA/CT.

Stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS,
precluding thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 10/15/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 160551
SWODY2
SPC AC 160549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An upper trough is forecast to continue a slow advance across the
Northeast U.S. Sunday, while a second/western trough reaches the
coast during the evening and then continues inland. In between,
large-scale ridging will prevail over the central U.S. through the
period.

A surface cold front associated with the eastern U.S. trough is
progged to continue advancing offshore, with the exception being the
trailing portion of the boundary slowly sagging across south Florida
through the day. By Monday morning, the front will likely have
drifted south of even the Florida Straits/Keys. Meanwhile in the
West, a front will move onshore in conjunction with the upper system
advance, reaching the Idaho/Great Basin region by 18/12Z.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected over south Florida and
the Keys, in the vicinity of the sagging front. Showers are also
forecast to spread inland in tandem with the western cold front, and
possibly in a more isolated sense eastward into the interior West.
While a few lightning strikes may occur locally, coverage still
appears likely to remain sparse, below the 10% threshold for areal
inclusion.

..Goss.. 10/16/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 161703
SWODY2
SPC AC 161702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the U.S. on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS on Sunday with
a large area of high pressure over the Rockies and Plains spreading
eastward to the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. As a large upper trough
swings east across the northeastern states, a cold front will
quickly exit eastern ME Sunday morning, with southern parts of the
front moving across south FL during the day. While moist, a midlevel
subsidence inversion will exist over FL, resulting in mainly shallow
convection with little lightning. However, isolated convection deep
enough for lightning cannot be ruled out over far southern FL/Keys
during the late afternoon.

Elsewhere, an amplified shortwave trough will approach the Pacific
Northwest near 00Z, with strong cooling aloft. Very weak instability
is forecast, with any convection most likely over the ocean.

..Jewell.. 10/16/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 170554
SWODY2
SPC AC 170553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low is progged to linger over the Northeast Monday,
making only gradual eastward progress. Meanwhile, a second/more
mobile low is forecast to advance across the Great Basin and into
Wyoming through the end of the period.

At the surface, high pressure is forecast to prevail over most of
the eastern half of the country. In the West, a cold front will
advance across the Intermountain region, in tandem with the
progression of the upper low. By late in the period/early Tuesday
morning, this front should stretch from the northern Plains to the
southern Rockies.

Potential for thunderstorms will remain muted across a majority of
the country Monday. The primary exception will be over the interior
West, as cold air/steep lapse rates aloft spread across the region.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

..Goss.. 10/17/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 171636
SWODY2
SPC AC 171634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is unlikely across the U.S. on Monday, with only weak thunderstorms across parts of the Intermountain West.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper trough will move across the Great Basin and central
Rockies, providing large-scale lift and increased winds aloft.
Meanwhile, a cold front will move east across ID, NV, and UT, with boundary-layer heating maximized over UT.

While convergence along the front will likely result in
precipitation, forecast soundings reveal very little instability for
severe convection. However, the combination of daytime heating and
cool temperatures aloft will support at least low-topped
thunderstorms during the afternoon, and a few strong wind gusts
cannot be ruled out near the peak heating hours, mainly from
northern UT into western WY.

Elsewhere, convergence near a weak surface trough may support
isolated lightning flashes over parts of Far West TX during the late
afternoon. Neither shear nor instability will support severe storms
in this area.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 180521
SWODY2
SPC AC 180520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
An upper low which has lingered over the northeastern U.S. and
adjacent eastern Canada will continue drifting across northern New
England and the Maritimes Tuesday, while a second low crossing the Intermountain West advances steadily eastward into the Plains.
Meanwhile, an eastern Pacific trough is forecast to reach the
Pacific Northwest vicinity overnight, as it takes on negative tilt
and turns northeastward.

At the surface, a weak low and trailing cold front will shift across
the central Plains, ahead of the upper low shifting out of the
Rockies. Return of moisture ahead of this front will be modest, and
of poor quality, resulting in rather weak instability above a
generally stable boundary layer. In the West, a front will move
onshore across northern California/Oregon/Washington ahead of the
Pacific upper system.

Showers -- and a few lightning strikes -- should spread onshore
overnight in the Northwest ahead of this system. Showers and a few thunderstorms may also spread northwestward into coastal portions of
southeast Texas and eastward to near Mobile Bay. Showers and a few
lightning strikes will spread across the South Dakota vicinity in
tandem where weak instability at mid levels is expected due to cool
air aloft associated with the upper low.

Finally, isolated, elevated storms may develop near the advancing
cold front overnight, from eastern Kansas northeastward into the
Upper Midwest. While small hail may occur with this convection,
risk for hail approaching severe levels appears minimal at this
time. As such, severe weather is not expected across the U.S.
through Wednesday morning.

..Goss.. 10/18/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 181721
SWODY2
SPC AC 181719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
The primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving
from the central Rockies into the Plains, with upper low moving from
CO/WY into NE. Strong height falls will occur with this system
across the northern Plains, with a surface low deepening over NE
during the day. A cold front will accompany this system, extending
roughly from central NE into eastern CO by 00Z with a warm front
from northeast NE into southern MN. Farther south, a dryline will
stretch from central KS into western TX.

Within the warm sector, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will
develop as southerly winds increase across the Plains and west of a
surface high over the Southeast. While strong heating will occur
from southwest NE into west TX, capping is likely to inhibit
convection due to the early/poor-quality moisture return. However,
cooling aloft with the upper trough as well as a substantial
low-level jet will lead to weak elevated instability, with isolated
to scattered thunderstorms possible primarily after 00Z from SD into
western IA.

Forecast soundings indicate convection may be rooted in the 850-700
mb layer, with only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. As such, severe
weather is not anticipated.

..Jewell.. 10/18/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 190542
SWODY2
SPC AC 190540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail will be possible over
a portion of the Midwest region on Wednesday.

...Midwest Region...

A shortwave trough now situated over the Great Basin will advance
east, reaching the Midwest on Wednesday. The accompanying cold front
will extend from a surface low in northwest IA southwest through the
central Plains by 12Z Wednesday. A warm front will stretch eastward
from the low into the Great Lakes. By the end of the period the cold
front should extend from a surface low near Lake MI southwest into
southern IL and the southern Plains. Partially modified Gulf air
with a narrow corridor of mid 50s to near 60 F dewpoints will return
through the warm sector resulting in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Showers
and thunderstorms will likely be in progress early Wednesday within
zone of stronger forcing north of the warm front from northern IA
into southern MN. Given steep 700-500 mb lapse rates and up to 1000
J/kg MUCAPE, some hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Later in the day, additional thunderstorm development is possible
farther southeast from IL into eastern MO within corridor of ascent
along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will be
embedded within moderate to strong deep layer winds and 40-45 kt
effective bulk shear. It appears that the updraft inflow layer will
be rooted above the surface, but sufficient dry air may be present
in the boundary layer to support at least a marginal risk for a few
strong to damaging wind gusts.

..Dial.. 10/19/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 191730
SWODY2
SPC AC 191728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail will be
possible across parts of the Midwest on Wednesday.

...Midwest...
An upper trough/low will advance eastward from the Plains across
parts of the Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, an accompanying
cold front will extend from a low near the NE/IA border southward
across the central/southern Plains. A warm front should stretch
eastward from the surface low to the Great Lakes. Partially modified
low-level moisture emanating from the Gulf of Mexico should return
northward ahead of the cold front across the Midwest through the
period. Weak destabilization appears possible, with MUCAPE generally
in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Mainly elevated storms to the north of
the warm front will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning over parts
of northern IA/southern MN with strong forcing associated with the
ejecting upper low. With modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates
and weak instability present, some of the stronger cores may be
capable of producing marginally severe hail.

Additional convection may develop later Wednesday afternoon and
evening from southern WI across IL and far eastern MO along/just
ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Fairly strong mid-level
flow should contribute to around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear
across this region. However, boundary-layer instability will likely
be stunted by a low-level inversion/cap through much of the day.
Latest guidance does not suggest much potential for robust
convective development along the front due to the thermodynamic
limitations. Even so, have opted to maintain the ongoing Marginal
Risk in the event that sufficient low-level moisture return occurs
to overcome the cap. If any surface-based storms can form, then
strong/gusty winds and perhaps some hail may occur given the
favorable deep-layer shear.

..Gleason.. 10/19/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 191819
SWODY2
SPC AC 191817

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail will be
possible across parts of the Midwest on Wednesday.

...Midwest...
An upper trough/low will advance eastward from the Plains across
parts of the Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, an accompanying
cold front will extend from a low near the NE/IA border southward
across the central/southern Plains. A warm front should stretch
eastward from the surface low to the Great Lakes. Partially modified
low-level moisture emanating from the Gulf of Mexico should return
northward ahead of the cold front across the Midwest through the
period. Weak destabilization appears possible, with MUCAPE generally
in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Mainly elevated storms to the north of
the warm front will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning over parts
of northern IA/southern MN with strong forcing associated with the
ejecting upper low. With modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates
and weak instability present, some of the stronger cores may be
capable of producing marginally severe hail.

Additional convection may develop later Wednesday afternoon and
evening from southern WI across IL and far eastern MO along/just
ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Fairly strong mid-level
flow should contribute to around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear
across this region. However, boundary-layer instability will likely
be stunted by a low-level inversion/cap through much of the day.
Latest guidance does not suggest much potential for robust
convective development along the front due to the thermodynamic
limitations. Even so, have opted to maintain the ongoing Marginal
Risk in the event that sufficient low-level moisture return occurs
to overcome the cap. If any surface-based storms can form, then
strong/gusty winds and perhaps some hail may occur given the
favorable deep-layer shear.

..Gleason.. 10/19/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 200539
SWODY2
SPC AC 200538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few showers/thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible from
eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail might occur late
Thursday night over southern Oklahoma.

...Eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania...

Limited low-level moisture with a narrow corridor of mid 50s F
dewpoints will return through the pre-frontal warm sector from OH
into western PA. Forcing for ascent accompanying a progressive
shortwave trough and its attendant cold front will move through the
OH Valley during the day. Low-topped convection is expected to
develop within the narrow corridor of very weak instability (less
than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) along and just ahead of the front. Activity
will be embedded within strong unidirectional southwesterly winds.
Some potential will exist for higher momentum air to be transported
to the surface within some of the rain cores. However, any severe
threat should remain limited by the very marginal thermodynamic
environment.

...Southern Oklahoma...

A cold front is expected to stall in vicinity of the OK/TX border.
Partially modified Gulf air will return northward beneath 6.5 - 7
C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from
northwest TX into southern OK overnight. Some uncertainty exists
regarding extent of thunderstorm initiation, but modest isentropic
ascent north of this boundary might contribute to the development of
a few thunderstorms very late in the period, and some of these
updrafts might become capable of producing a few instances of
marginally severe hail.

..Dial.. 10/20/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 201725
SWODY2
SPC AC 201724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and storms with isolated strong to damaging wind gusts will
be possible Thursday across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into
the central/southern Appalachians. Isolated storms capable of
marginally severe hail and strong gusts may also occur over a small
portion of west Texas.

...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Central/Southern Appalachians...
An upper trough/low should move quickly eastward across the Great
Lakes and Midwest through the day on Thursday. An attendant cold
front will sweep eastward across these regions, much of the OH/TN
Valleys, and into the southern/central Appalachians by Thursday
evening. Limited low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints
generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, is forecast to return northward
ahead of the front. Modest diurnal heating, poor lapse rates, and
cloud cover will likely limit how much boundary-layer instability
can develop Thursday afternoon, particularly across the OH Valley
and central Appalachians where low-level moisture will be less.

Even so, low-topped showers and storms should develop by early
Thursday afternoon along much of the length of the cold front. The
weak forecast instability coupled with fairly strong
west-southwesterly winds at low/mid levels should support some
threat for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts as storms spread
eastward through the day. Slightly greater instability may be
realized from TN southward into AL/GA, but deep-layer shear should
be weaker across this area than in the OH Valley. This isolated wind
threat should quickly wane early Thursday evening as convection
encounters the higher terrain of the Appalachians and a less
favorable thermodynamic environment.

...West Texas...
At least isolated storms should develop Thursday afternoon over the
higher terrain of the Davis and surrounding mountains in west TX as
a weak mid-level disturbance moves over this region. Although
low/mid-level winds are forecast to remain fairly modest, there will
be some veering of the flow with height, and steep low/mid-level
lapse rates should also be present. Any storms that can form in this
regime may pose an isolated hail and strong/gusty wind threat
through early Thursday evening.

...Southern Oklahoma...
Most 12Z guidance indicates the potential for convection across
southern OK will be rather limited Thursday night into early Friday
morning. While a storm or two may still develop, weak instability,
marginal deep-layer shear, and meager large-scale ascent all suggest
the threat for anything more than small hail should remain low.

..Gleason.. 10/20/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 210535
SWODY2
SPC AC 210534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected across the U.S. mainland
Friday. However, a few storms might produce locally strong but
sub-severe gusts over eastern North Carolina during the afternoon.
Some risk for marginally severe hail will exist late Friday night
with any storms developing across northeast Oklahoma and southern
Kansas.

...Eastern North Carolina...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern NC during the
afternoon and early evening along a cold front. Moderate instability
with up to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE and 35 kt effective bulk shear should
characterize the pre-frontal warm sector. A few storms might become
capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. Weak mid-level lapse
rates and modest winds in the surface-850 mb layer should serve as
overall limiting factors.

...Central and southern Plains area...
A few elevated thunderstorms will be possible within a weak warm
advection regime Friday morning across southern OK and northwest TX.
A somewhat better chance for thunderstorms will exist later Friday
night across southern KS, northeast OK and southwest MO. Other than
a low-end risk for small to marginally severe hail, primarily across
southern KS, no severe weather is expected.

..Dial.. 10/21/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 210603
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601

Day 2 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

AMENDED TO INTRODUCE MRGL FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

...SUMMARY...
A few storms might produce locally strong to damaging wind gusts
over a portion of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Some
risk for marginally severe hail will exist late Friday night with
any storms developing across northeast Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

...Eastern North Carolina...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern NC during the
afternoon and early evening along a cold front. Moderate instability
with up to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kt effective bulk shear should characterize the pre-frontal warm sector. A few storms might become
capable of producing locally strong to damaging wind gusts. Weak
mid-level lapse rates and modest winds in the surface-850 mb layer
might serve as overall limiting factors.

...Central and southern Plains area...
A few elevated thunderstorms will be possible within a weak warm
advection regime Friday morning across southern OK and northwest TX.
A somewhat better chance for thunderstorms will exist later Friday
night across southern KS, northeast OK and southwest MO. Other than
a low-end risk for small to marginally severe hail, primarily across
southern KS, no severe weather is expected.

..Dial.. 10/21/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 210608
SWODY2
SPC AC 210606

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

CORRECTED TO REMOVE 5% LABEL FROM WIND GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A few storms might produce locally strong to damaging wind gusts
over a portion of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Some
risk for marginally severe hail will exist late Friday night with
any storms developing across northeast Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

...Eastern North Carolina...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern NC during the
afternoon and early evening along a cold front. Moderate instability
with up to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kt effective bulk shear should characterize the pre-frontal warm sector. A few storms might become
capable of producing locally strong to damaging wind gusts. Weak
mid-level lapse rates and modest winds in the surface-850 mb layer
might serve as overall limiting factors.

...Central and southern Plains area...
A few elevated thunderstorms will be possible within a weak warm
advection regime Friday morning across southern OK and northwest TX.
A somewhat better chance for thunderstorms will exist later Friday
night across southern KS, northeast OK and southwest MO. Other than
a low-end risk for small to marginally severe hail, primarily across
southern KS, no severe weather is expected.

..Dial.. 10/21/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 211720
SWODY2
SPC AC 211718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms might produce locally strong to damaging wind gusts
over a portion of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Some
risk for marginally severe hail will exist late Friday night with
any storms developing across northeast Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

...NC...

Weak short-wave trough currently located over the central High
Plains is forecast to dig southeast into the TN Valley by the start
of the day2 period. This feature will then eject into the middle
Atlantic as a speed max translates across the southern Appalachians
into southeast VA during the afternoon. Resultant surface pressure
rises across the TN/OH Valley region will force a cold front east of
the higher terrain to a position from southeast VA-central Carolinas
after 18z. This boundary will serve to focus convection, especially
as boundary-layer heating contributes to destabilization. Forecast
wind profiles suggest some organization is possible, though
low-level shear will remain somewhat weak. Have expanded low severe probabilities to include a bit more of eastern NC as forecast models
suggest convection will easily develop ahead of this disturbance by
peak heating. Locally damaging winds are the primary risk.

...OK/KS...

Surface anticyclone will shift downstream into the TN Valley by the
end of the day2 period. Lee cyclone will establish itself over the
high Plains of southwest KS during the latter half of the period and
this will encourage low-level moisture to advance north across TX
into eastern KS as the LLJ strengthens across this region. While
strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the High Plains,
surface-based convection will likely struggle to initiate due to the
expected presence of some CINH. However, elevated thunderstorms
should develop during the overnight period within the warm advection
zone over northeast OK/southeast KS. Forecast soundings suggest
modest MUCAPE such that a few robust updrafts may be possible. At
this time it appears marginally severe hail would be the primary
risk.

..Darrow.. 10/21/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 220558
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms may pose a risk for mostly isolated large hail Saturday night
primarily across northeast Kansas.

...Central through eastern Kansas...

Low-amplitude shortwave trough will reach the southern High Plains
Saturday night contributing to lee cyclogenesis. Early Saturday a
warm front will extend from the surface low near the OK Panhandle, southeastward through central and southeast OK. Elevated storms with
some threat for hail should be in progress within the zone of ascent
north of this boundary, primarily across southeast KS into southwest
MO. The low will deepen and move slowly northeast into western KS
with the approach of the shortwave trough Saturday night, while the
warm front lifts north into southern KS. A dryline will mix eastward
through west TX and OK during the day before retreating overnight.
Partially modified Gulf air will advect northward beneath a plume of
6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate
instability. The KS warm sector will probably remain capped given
only modest forcing along the warm front during the day. However,
there is some chance that a surface based storm or two might
initiate over south central or southwest KS. Greater confidence
exists that storms will develop overnight as isentropic ascent and destabilization increases north of the warm front in association
with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Moderate instability
and 35-45 kt effective bulk shear will support a threat for elevated
supercells capable of isolated large hail before storms evolve into
an MCS.

...Southern High Plains...

A few high-based storms might initiate along the dryline from
northwest TX into western OK during the afternoon. This activity
will develop within an environment characterized by moderate
instability and 25-35 kt effective bulk shear supportive of mainly
multicells. A few instances of hail and downburst winds may occur
before activity diminishes during the evening.

..Dial.. 10/22/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 221726
SWODY2
SPC AC 221725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Storms may pose a risk for mainly isolated large hail Saturday night
across northeast Kansas and western Missouri.

...Central Plains into Missouri...
Scattered to numerous storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning
along the KS/OK border into southwestern MO in association with a
southwesterly low-level jet. This activity may pose a continued
threat for marginally severe hail for the first few hours of the
period before diminishing as the low-level jet weakens. In the wake
of these morning storms, low-level moisture is forecast to return
northward across the southern/central Plains in advance of a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting eastward over the western
CONUS. At the surface, a low should gradually deepen from the
central High Plains into central KS by late Saturday night and early
Sunday morning. A warm front will lift northward across KS through
the period, while a dryline mixes eastward across the
central/southern High Plains through the day.

The increasing low-level moisture in tandem with modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates should result in the development of 1500-2500
J/kg of MUCAPE along and north of the warm front Saturday evening.
The surface-based warm sector across KS will probably remain capped
through Saturday afternoon given very weak large-scale ascent during
the day. Still, a surface-based storm or two may initiate along/near
the dryline or warm front by early Saturday evening across
southwestern into south-central KS. If a storm develops in this
area, all severe hazards appear possible. Otherwise, greater
confidence exists that mainly elevated storms will occur Saturday
night across north-central/northeastern KS and western/central MO as
MUCAPE increases north of the warm front in tandem with a
strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Around 35-45 kt of
effective bulk shear should prove favorable for organized updrafts,
including the potential for a few supercells capable of producing
isolated large hail early in the convective cycle. These elevated
storms should eventually grow into an arcing band of convection by
early Sunday morning while continuing to pose a threat for
marginally severe hail.

...Southern High Plains...
A high-based storm or two may initiate off the dryline from parts of
the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK by late Saturday afternoon.
If storms occur, they would encounter a moderately unstable airmass
and around 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear. Mainly multicells capable
of producing occasional hail and severe wind gusts may occur through
the early evening before increasing convective inhibition decreases
the threat. With the late arrival of ascent associated with the
shortwave trough approaching from the west, the number of storms, if
any, that can develop remains highly uncertain. Have therefore
maintained the rather conditional Marginal Risk for hail/wind across
this region with no changes.

..Gleason.. 10/22/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 230549
SWODY2
SPC AC 230547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts,
isolated large hail and some tornadoes will be likely from parts of
the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. A more isolated severe
threat is expected in parts off the Arklatex, western Tennessee
Valley, lower Ohio Valley and southern to central Plains.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ozarks...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern and
central Plains and become more amplified on Sunday. Ahead of the
trough, southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Ozarks
and mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, the western edge of a
moist airmass will be located across the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the eastern half of Kansas. During the day,
a surface low will move eastward across northern Missouri with a
warm front located in central Illinois and central Indiana. A cold
front will extend southwestward across eastern Kansas and
northeastern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to first develop
to the north of the track of the surface low and along the warm
front by late morning. Although much of this activity will be
elevated, a hail threat should develop with the stronger cores.

Further south, surface heating ahead of the cold front will result
in the development of moderate instability by midday. This combined
with increasing low-level convergence along the front will result in surface-based convective initiation from north-central Missouri
southwestward into central and southwestern Missouri during the
afternoon. As storm coverage expands during the mid to late
afternoon, MCS development is expected. This organized line of
severe storms will move east-southeastward and persist into the
early overnight period.

The models are in relatively good agreement concerning many aspects
of this system. Moderate instability is forecast to develop across a
fairly broad moist sector. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1500 to
2500 J/kg range from far eastern Oklahoma into north-central
Missouri. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 kt range
along much of the instability axis. This environment should support
supercell development with a potential for large hail and wind
damage. The greatest threat for large hail should exist early in the
event when instability will be greatest and cells will tend to be
more discrete. The more dominant supercells should have a tornado
threat. As cells congeal into a line during the late afternoon and
early evening and as the low-level jet strengthens, embedded
supercells within the line should continue to have a tornado threat. Eventually, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected
with wind-damage becoming the greatest threat. Isolated wind gusts
of greater than 65 knots will be possible with the more organized
bowing segments. The line should continue across the lower Ohio and
mid Mississippi Valleys during the late evening and early overnight
period, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible.

...Pacific Northwest Coast...
An upper-level trough will approach the coast of the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday. Ahead of the system, strong large-scale ascent
will overspread the Pacific Northwest. This combined with 500 mb
temperatures near -24C will create steep mid-level lapse rates and
weak instability. This may be enough for a marginal hail threat on
Sunday afternoon and evening along the coast as cells move inland.

..Broyles.. 10/23/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 231734
SWODY2
SPC AC 231733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts,
isolated large hail and some tornadoes will be likely from parts of
the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. A more isolated severe
threat is expected in parts off the Arklatex, western Tennessee
Valley, Ohio Valley and southern to central Plains.

...Ozarks to Middle Mississippi Valley region...

Consensus among the models is that a low-amplitude shortwave trough
now moving into northern CA will continue into the central Plains
Sunday and the middle MS Valley Sunday evening before reaching the
OH Valley overnight. Attendant surface low will move from northeast
KS through northern MO and eventually NW IN by the end of period.
Cold front will sweep eastward through the middle MS Valley, while a
warm front extending eastward from the low through northern MO into
central IL and IN will struggle to move north.

A strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will tap into reservoir
of richer low-level moisture now present across TX, with mid 60s F
dewpoints likely advecting northward through the warm sector beneath
modest mid-level lapse rates. This process will result in moderate
instability with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE likely. Some low clouds may
accompany the moisture return which may delay boundary layer
destabilization in some areas. Initial storms are expected to
initiate within zone of stronger forcing along the cold front across
far northeast KS southward into eastern OK. Other storms will be
possible farther east along the warm conveyor belt. Activity will
subsequently spread east through the middle MS Valley region during
the afternoon and into the evening. Mixed storm modes will be likely
along the front with more discrete activity possible in warm sector.
Both supercells and bowing segments capable of all hazards will be
supported by 40-50 kt effective bulk shear. Low-level hodographs
with 200-300 m2/s2 storm relative helicity will also support a
threat of tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, especially in
ENH risk area. With time, the dominant storm mode should transition
to lines with damaging wind becoming the main threat. An upgrade to
MDT might be warranted in later updates once mesoscale details
become more apparent.

...Oregon Coast...

Scattered low-topped convection will develop within an environment characterized by very strong shear and weak instability but steep
lapse rates. These storms may become capable of producing a few
damaging gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes later Sunday
afternoon and evening.

..Dial.. 10/23/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 240553
SWODY2
SPC AC 240551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage are expected across parts
of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday. Marginally
severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic
and eastern Carolinas Monday evening and into the overnight period.

...Southern and Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley on Monday as an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level
jet noses into the southern Appalachian Mountains. At the surface, a
cold front will advance eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from
the southeastern U.S. northeastward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front
around midday with a line of storms moving eastward across the
southern and central Appalachians during the afternoon.

Although the models only develop weak instability ahead of the
front, the mid-level jet will create strong deep-layer shear across
much of the southern and central Appalachians. For this reason, a
wind-damage threat is expected along the leading edge of the line
segment during the afternoon. The wind-damage threat should persist
into early evening as the line moves across the Appalachian crest
and into the eastern foothills. In addition to a wind-damage threat,
a brief tornado or two will also be possible, especially if a
supercell can become organized within a gap in the line or at the
tail end of the line.

..Broyles.. 10/24/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AREA INTO A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated wind damage are possible over
parts of the southern and central Appalachians into the Carolinas
and Middle Atlantic region Monday.

...Southern and Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and Middle
Atlantic...

A low-amplitude shortwave trough now moving through the central
Plains will continue east through the Ohio Valley before reaching
the Middle Atlantic region Monday evening. Attendant cold front will
extend from a surface low in northern IN southwest into the lower MS
Valley and southeast TX. This front will move east during the period
and off the Atlantic seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. A complicating factor
is the shortwave trough currently over the northern Gulf that will
move northeast off the coastal Carolinas during the day. A surface
low developing over the Gulf stream in association with this feature
will tend to weaken the low-level pressure gradient ahead of the
primary shortwave trough, potentially resulting in less robust
moisture return and weaker wind profiles in the lowest 3 km. There
remains some model differences regarding the strength of this
offshore low and overall degree of severe threat inland with the NAM
suggesting a more marginal threat for most areas. Nevertheless,
dewpoints will probably increase to the mid 50s to near 60 F through
the middle Atlantic region with low to mid 60s F possible across the
Carolinas. However, weak mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit
MLCAPE to generally 400-800 J/kg depending on degree of moisture
return.

A forced band of low-topped convection will likely be in progress
just west of the central and southern Appalachians with at least a
marginal threat for locally strong wind gusts. Some diabatic warming
of the boundary layer is expected east of the higher terrain
coincident with modest moisture return. This may contribute to some intensification of the convection especially from NC into VA. Deep
layer shear of 40+ kt will support potential for embedded bowing
segments with isolated damaging wind the main threat during the
afternoon into the evening.

...Eastern Ohio...

A low topped band of thunderstorms may develop along the front and
just ahead of the vorticity maximum across eastern OH. This activity
may be capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, gusty
winds and perhaps a brief tornado during the afternoon. Overall
threat in this region will be conditional upon sufficient boundary
layer destabilization, but is expected to remain marginal.

..Dial.. 10/24/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 250559
SWODY2
SPC AC 250557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind
damage and an isolated tornado threat are expected across parts of
the southern and central Plains from late Tuesday afternoon through
the evening into the overnight.

...Southern and Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Rockies
on Tuesday as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet moves into
the southern and central High Plains. Southwest mid-level flow will
be in place ahead of the system across the southern and central
Plains. The approach of the system will result in strong moisture
advection across the southern and central Plains during the day with
a corridor of moderate instability developing by late afternoon from west-central Texas northward into west-central Kansas. A capping
inversion during the day will prevent convection initiation from
taking place until late afternoon along and to the east of a
dryline. Initially, thunderstorm development is expected to be
isolated but storm coverage should steadily increase during the
evening as the low-level jet strengthens. The storms should
eventually organize into a line with MCS development possible during
the mid to late evening.

Model forecasts are in good agreement concerning the timing of the
upper-level system and position of the moist axis. During the early
evening, MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range
along much of the instability corridor. Supercell wind profiles are
forecast in most areas with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range.
In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km
in the vicinity of the dryline. This will be favorable for the
development of supercells with large hail. In areas that destabilize
the most, supercells with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible. Supercells will also be capable of
damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat. A more
widespread wind-damage threat should develop as storms congeal
during the evening and move eastward across north-central Texas,
west-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The severe threat
will become isolated during the early overnight period.

Further to the north across northern Kansas and central to eastern
Nebraska, a severe threat is also expected to develop. The northern
end of a convective line should be located in central or northern
Nebraska during the evening. Instability is forecast to be weaker
this far north but strong deep-layer shear will still be adequate
for severe storms. Isolated large hail and wind-damage are expected
to be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 10/25/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 251735
SWODY2
SPC AC 251734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind
damage and isolated tornadoes are expected across parts of the
southern and central Plains from late Tuesday afternoon through the
evening into the overnight.

...Central through southern Plains...

Upper trough currently moving into the western U.S. will amplify as
it continues east into the central and southern Plains Tuesday. A
lee cyclone will develop in association with this feature with the strengthening southerly low-level jet drawing partially modified
Gulf air northward beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates
resulting in a corridor of moderate instability with up to 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Some low clouds may accompany the moisture return, the
extent of which remains somewhat uncertain. Storms will likely
develop by late afternoon as the cold front advances east and merges
with the dryline. A few discrete storms might initiate along the
dryline prior to the frontal merger, but extent of this development
is dependent on the degree of boundary layer heating. More numerous
storms are expected toward evening as the front begins to merge with
the dryline from western KS southward into eastern parts of western
TX. Wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will support
some supercells with all hazards possible. Storms will eventually
evolve into an MCS with damaging wind becoming the main threat as
activity continues east overnight. Some potential exists for a
greater tornado threat than what is currently indicated, but
uncertainty regarding extent of boundary layer destabilization and
mode evolution lowers confidence in increasing probabilities for
this update.

..Dial.. 10/25/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 260600
SWODY2
SPC AC 260559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and possibly a few
tornadoes are expected from Wednesday into Wednesday night from
parts of east and southeast Texas eastward across Louisiana to the
central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning
from OK southward into south-central TX ahead of a powerful
mid-level trough moving across the southern Great Plains and into
the lower MS Valley. A seasonably moist airmass is forecast ahead
of a cold front forecast to sweep eastward across the southern Great
Plains and into the portions of the central Gulf Coast states
Wednesday night.

An isolated to widely scattered wind-damage threat may linger into
the start of the Day-2 period (Wednesday morning), and
reinvigorate/continue into the afternoon across east TX into LA
amidst lower 70s dewpoints with MLCAPE ranging 500-1500 J/kg from
southeast TX into central LA. Forecast hodographs support organized
storms including the possibility for supercells, but the strongly
forced convective line will likely favor mainly a damaging-gust
threat and perhaps several mesovortices capable of tornadoes. The
greatest risk for supercells and associated tornado/wind hazards may
develop over the northern Gulf and perhaps in coastal areas of
southeast LA late in the day. Weaker instability farther east
overnight into the FL Panhandle will tend to limit the spatial
extent of the severe risk.

Farther northwest during the late afternoon over eastern OK/western
AR, a conditional scenario for destabilization and perhaps a
low-severe probability risk may unfold for a few hours immediately
ahead of the mid-level cold pocket. This activity will likely
weaken by sunset owing to waning instability.

..Smith.. 10/26/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 261730
SWODY2
SPC AC 261728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds and a few tornadoes should occur Wednesday into
Wednesday night across parts of east/southeast Texas across
Louisiana to the central Gulf Coast.

...East Texas/ArkLaTex to the Central Gulf Coast...
A highly amplified upper trough over the Plains will progress
eastward Wednesday, eventually closing off over the lower/mid MS
Valley and Mid-South late. An elongated area of surface low pressure
initially over the southern/central Plains should develop to the
Ozarks through Wednesday evening. The cold front attendant to the
surface low will sweep eastward across central/east TX through the
day, and will continue over much of the lower MS Valley Wednesday
night. Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward in tandem
with a surface warm front ahead of the advancing cold front from
southeast/east TX into much of LA and the central Gulf Coast states.
A threat for severe/damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will exist
where this low-level moisture is sufficient to support surface-based
storms.

A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
Wednesday morning from parts of southeastern OK to south-central TX.
Mainly a scattered damaging wind threat will probably persist with
this line as it moves quickly eastward across east/southeast TX
through about midday. With greater low-level moisture attempting to
return northward ahead of this activity, filtered diurnal heating
should help foster around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Wednesday
afternoon south of the warm front. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
will support storm organization with the line, and with any
supercells that can develop ahead of it. Latest guidance shows
conflicting signals on this pre-squall line supercell potential, but
low-level warm advection associated with an eastward-migrating 35-45
kt southerly low-level jet suggests at least some threat for
discrete supercells ahead of the line. Regardless of convective
mode, low-level shear across the warm sector should be sufficient
for updraft rotation, and isolated tornadoes may occur with
mesovorticies embedded within the line, and with any supercells that
can develop ahead of it.

This tornado and damaging wind threat will shift eastward across
much of LA Wednesday afternoon and into southern MS/AL and the
western FL Panhandle Wednesday evening/night. Sufficient boundary layer-instability to support surface-based storms becomes more
uncertain with eastward extent across these areas, and the line
should eventually weaken late Wednesday night. Farther northwest,
there are some indications that a low-topped line may develop
Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern OK/TX into
western/southern AR along or just ahead of the cold front. Even
though low-level moisture will be more limited across this area,
cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough may
still support weak destabilization. Strong low/deep-layer shear
suggest some threat for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado if the line develops. This threat will lessen Wednesday
evening across AR owing to waning instability with the loss of
daytime heating.

..Gleason.. 10/26/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 270559
SWODY2
SPC AC 270557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
Thursday and Thursday night for the northeast Gulf Coast and coastal
Carolinas.

...Southeast...
A strong mid-level low/trough will slowly move eastward across the
lower MS Valley into the TN Valley during the period, as an intense
500-mb speed max moves across the northern Gulf of Mexico and noses
into the eastern Carolinas overnight. An occluded surface low will
move from the Ozarks eastward into KY as a cold front sweeps east
across a large part of the Southeast during the period. A maritime
warm front will advances northward into the Carolina coastal plain.

There is high confidence in a band of showers and thunderstorms to
be ongoing Thursday morning over the northern Gulf Coast. An
isolated severe risk will probably accompany some of the stronger
storms during the morning. By midday into the afternoon, the
approach of the mid-level speed max and resulting strengthening wind
profile will favor organized storm structures moving into the west
coast from the Gulf. The very moist boundary layer depicted in
forecast soundings and sufficient low-level shear may support a
tornado risk from near Tampa Bay north-northeastward into northern
FL. Damaging gusts though will tend to be the more prevalent risk
with the convection. During the evening, it is expected that
surface-based instability, via the northward-penetrating warm
sector, will develop into coastal SC and southern NC. Damaging
gusts and a tornado risk may accompany the more intense storms as
this activity spreads northeast during the overnight into NC.

..Smith.. 10/27/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 271730
SWODY2
SPC AC 271728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA INTO COASTAL GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible Thursday into
Thursday night from Florida to the Carolinas. Damaging winds and a
few tornadoes should be the main threats.

...Southeast...
A closed mid/upper-level low initially centered over AR/MO Thursday
morning will move only slowly eastward across the mid MS Valley, TN
Valley, and Southeast through Thursday night. An associated 500 mb
jet will move across the northern Gulf and over much of FL, GA, and
the coastal Carolinas. At the surface, an occluded low should
develop eastward in tandem with mid/upper-level low, reaching the
Mid-South vicinity by Thursday evening. An attendant cold front will
sweep eastward across much of the Southeast through the period. A
maritime warm front should advance slightly inland across mainly the
coastal portions of NC/SC Thursday evening into early Friday
morning.

Storms will likely be ongoing ahead of the cold front Thursday
morning across much of the FL Panhandle and FL Gulf Coast. This
activity will largely be driven by low-level warm advection
associated with a 30-40+ kt low-level jet. With adequate low-level
shear and weak boundary-layer instability present across the FL
Panhandle, these storms will probably continue to pose an isolated
threat for both tornadoes and damaging winds as they move eastward
Thursday morning. Instability should gradually increase across the
warm sector with filtered diurnal heating, with around 500-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE likely to develop by late Thursday afternoon across
coastal GA and most of the FL Peninsula. By midday and continuing
into Thursday afternoon, the approach of the mid-level jet and
corresponding increase in the wind fields at low/mid levels will
support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear across much of the
warm sector in FL/GA. This shear will be strong enough to support
supercells ahead of the front with an isolated tornado risk, as 0-1
km SRH should range generally from 100-200 m2/s2.

Otherwise, storms may have a tendency to eventually congeal into one
or more short line segments as they move east-northeastward through
Thursday evening, with more of a damaging wind threat given the
increasingly linear mode. Still, an isolated wind/tornado threat
should continue across coastal portions of the Carolinas Thursday
night into early Friday morning as weak surface-based instability
develops inland in tandem with the increasing low-level moisture,
and as low-level shear remains rather strong.

..Gleason.. 10/27/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 280520
SWODY2
SPC AC 280519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the morning over
northeastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia.

...NC/VA...
The mid-level low initially over the TN Valley will slowly migrate
eastward into southwest VA during the period. A front will extend
from a low over the central Appalachians to eastern NC and southward
to the FL Straits at the start of the period. A moist/destabilizing
warm sector will likely exist early Friday morning over parts of
eastern NC and into far southeast VA. Model guidance shows a broken
band of convection near the front during the morning moving
east-northeast and offshore into the coastal waters by late morning.
Forecast soundings indicate that before the convection clears the
coast, a risk for a supercell or two and linear segments may lend a
narrow window of opportunity for isolated damaging gusts and/or a
tornado.

Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the
remainder of the Lower 48 states.

..Smith.. 10/28/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 281701
SWODY2
SPC AC 281700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Friday over parts of
coastal North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic. Occasional strong to
damaging winds should be the main threat.

...Coastal North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic...
A large mid/upper-level low centered over the TN Valley Friday
morning will move slowly eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic through
the period. An occluded front should extend eastward from a surface
low over WV across southern VA and eastern NC at the start of the
period. This front is forecast to lift gradually northward across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the day.

A moist low-level airmass characterized by low to mid 60s surface
dewpoints should be present across parts of coastal NC into
southeastern VA and vicinity. A broken line of storms may be ongoing
Friday morning over eastern NC. There should be weak but sufficient
instability ahead of this activity to support surface-based
convection moving quickly east-northeastward into parts of
southeastern VA and the southern Delmarva Peninsula Friday morning.
Strong deep-layer shear of 45-55+ kt will support organized
updrafts, including the potential for a supercell or two along with
short line segments. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief
tornado appear possible with this convection. These storms should
move offshore by early Friday afternoon, ending the severe threat
across this area.

Recent guidance suggests that there will be some potential for weak boundary-layer instability (MLCAPE 250-500 J/kg) to develop along
and south of the northward-advancing front across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through Friday afternoon. A low-topped line of
convection may develop along the front and move northward over
portions of central/northern VA into southern/central MD. Strong east-southeasterly flow at low levels is forecast to be present by
most guidance. It would only take very modest diurnal heating to
support mixing of these strong low-level winds to the surface
through convective processes. Accordingly, an isolated threat for
strong to damaging winds may exist with any storms that can become
surface based as they move northward through late Friday afternoon
across this region.

..Gleason.. 10/28/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 290547
SWODY2
SPC AC 290546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will move from the central Appalachians to the
Adirondacks while weakening during the period. Strong forcing for
ascent and the development of pockets of weak buoyancy may yield a
few elevated thunderstorms over New England. Farther west, a
mid-level low will weaken over as it moves from offshore the
northern CA coast into southern OR. A few lightning flashes are
possible with weak convection in association with this upper system.
Elsewhere, relatively tranquil conditions will prevail over a large
part of the Lower 48 states.

..Smith.. 10/29/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 291723
SWODY2
SPC AC 291722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level low will move from the central Appalachians to the
Northeast while slowly weakening through the period. Strong
large-scale ascent and weak instability may yield a few elevated
storms over parts of New England mainly through the afternoon and
early evening. Latest guidance continues to suggest that low-level
moisture will not be enough across this region to support
surface-based storms and an appreciable severe threat. Isolated
lightning flashes may also occur with weak convection associated
with an upper low that should move onshore across portions of
northern CA and southern OR.

..Gleason.. 10/29/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 300537
SWODY2
SPC AC 300535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur on Sunday throughout the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move southeast and expand across the Midwest
and maintain cyclonic flow from the northern High Plains into the
lower Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure will extend from
the northern High Plains through much of the area east of the
Rockies. Mid-level moisture and a series of very weak disturbances
within a moderate belt of westerly flow will move across northern UT
and CO. Weak convection may yield a few lightning flashes with this
activity. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will prevail.

..Smith.. 10/30/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 301645
SWODY2
SPC AC 301643

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur on Sunday throughout the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper level trough will pivot eastward across the northern
Plains and Great Lakes vicinity, maintaining large-scale cyclonic
flow over much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Surface high
pressure will build over the Plains while low pressure over the
eastern states lifts north/northeast. Continental trajectories will
result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, and quiescent weather
conditions will prevail. Further west, a series of weak midlevel
disturbances will migrate across the Great Basin and a few
high-based, terrain-influenced thunderstorms are possible from
northern Utah into northwest Colorado.

..Leitman.. 10/30/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 310534
SWODY2
SPC AC 310532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur over the contiguous United
States on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Cyclonic mid-level flow will be maintained across the Midwest and
Northeast due to a mid-level low over northern Quebec. A
disturbance will move from the eastern Pacific into the Pacific
Northwest states. In the low levels, surface high pressure will be
centered over the northern Great Plains. Aside from a few lightning
flashes with weak convection over northern CO and the eastern part
of the Upper Peninsula of MI, thunderstorms are not forecast.

..Smith.. 10/31/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 311703
SWODY2
SPC AC 311702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur over the contiguous United
States on Monday.

...Synopsis...

Cyclonic upper flow will be maintained from the northern Plains to
the Northeast as an upper low migrates across Quebec and Ontario.
Cold temperatures aloft and weak shortwave impulses migrating around
the upper low may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms across parts
of the Upper Peninsula of MI eastward toward Lake Huron. A few
lightning strikes also may occur near higher terrain of northern CO.
Otherwise, surface high pressure centered over the northern/central
Plains and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will preclude
thunderstorm activity across most of the contiguous U.S. on Monday.

..Leitman.. 10/31/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 010543
SWODY2
SPC AC 010542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Mon Nov 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level disturbance initially over the Four Corners will quickly
move east into OK/north TX by early Wednesday morning while a trough
remains centered over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, extensive
surface high pressure east of the Rockies will lead to mainly
tranquil conditions over a large part of the Lower 48 states. The
exception will be over the southern Great Plains with weak
isentropic lift/warm-air advection leading to increasing clouds and
the chance for isolated showers/thunderstorms by late in the day.
The coverage of weak elevated thunderstorms is forecast to increase
Tuesday night in a west-east corridor from the Caprock eastward near
the Red River.

..Smith.. 11/01/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 011705
SWODY2
SPC AC 011704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Mon Nov 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
Models suggest that mid/upper flow will remain amplified and split
inland of the Pacific coast, across and east of the Rockies, through
this period. However, an initially prominent mid-level ridge in the
northern stream is forecast to weaken while shifting across the
Canadian Prairies vicinity, as a short wave trough to its west
progresses northward across and north of the Canadian Rockies. In
the wake of the short wave trough, models indicate that mid-level
ridging will build in the southern stream, across much of the
Pacific Coast states and Intermountain West, while downstream
troughing digs to the lee of the southern Rockies, to the southwest
of significant northern stream troughing across the Great Lakes into
Northeast.

The primary frontal zone associated with the northern branch
troughing appears likely to extend across the southern Mid Atlantic
coast vicinity into the Tennessee Valley, lower Mississippi Valley
and Texas South Plains at 12Z Tuesday, with at least some further
southward advancement forecast through daybreak Wednesday. This
front has been preceded by a weaker cold intrusion now
stalling/weakening south of the Florida Peninsula into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, modest boundary-layer
moisture return is ongoing off the western Gulf of Mexico into parts
of southern Texas and lower portions of the Rio Grande Valley, with
some of the moisture also returning northward above the front across
the Edwards Plateau/South Plains into portions of the central Great
Plains.

...Texas Davis Mountains adjacent Rio Grande Valley vicinity...
Moistening near-surface upslope flow may contribute to weak to
modest boundary-layer destabilization by late Tuesday afternoon. It
appears that this will occur beneath 30+ kt westerly flow around 500
mb, which may contribute to moderately strong shear, aided by
pronounced veering of low to mid-level wind fields with height.
Various model output, including the latest HREF, is suggestive that
the environment may become conducive to isolated supercell
development for a period during the afternoon and evening. However,
aside from orographic forcing, large-scale forcing for ascent to
support thunderstorm initiation remains a bit unclear. Due to
uncertainties concerning mid-level inhibition and limited CAPE,
severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 5 percent,
but it is possible that this could change in later outlooks for this
period.

...Red River Valley vicinity...
Lift above the frontal zone, supported by low-level warm advection
ahead of one progressive short wave impulse (within the larger-scale
mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the southern Rockies), may
contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm development, mainly
Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

...Colorado Rockies vicinity...
Forecast soundings suggest that profiles may become marginally
conducive to scattered convection capable of producing lightning by
Tuesday afternoon, aided by orographic lift and forcing for ascent
associated with at least one short wave impulse traversing the
region.

...Lower Great Lakes vicinity...
Forecast soundings suggest that cooling in the 700-500 mb layer may
contribute to deepening convective development near and to the lee
of the southeastern shores of Lake Ontario by late Tuesday
afternoon. Some of this activity may extend into and through
favorably cold mid-levels to allow for occasional lightning.

..Kerr.. 11/01/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 020535
SWODY2
SPC AC 020534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Tue Nov 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough is forecast east of the Rockies on
Wednesday. A disturbance initially over the southern High Plains
will move southeast across much of TX during the period. Farther
west, a mid-level ridge will shift eastward across the interior West
as a mid-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. A frontal
zone will push southward through north-central TX and into the Hill
Country during with afternoon with weak elevated thunderstorms north
of the surface boundary. This activity is forecast to continue
southeastward in the form of a few clusters of showers/thunderstorms
eventually reaching coastal southeast TX and the lower Rio Grande
Valley Wednesday night.

Farther west, a vigorous mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific
will approach northern CA/OR with isolated thunderstorms possible
near the coastal range.

..Smith.. 11/02/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 021729
SWODY2
SPC AC 021728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Nov 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the upper Midwest Wednesday morning will
move southeast into the OH/TN Valley region, while expansive high
pressure aloft extends across much of the western U.S. with the
exception of the Pacific Northwest. There, a strong upper trough
will move onshore Wednesday night. A surface stationary front will
extend from central FL peninsula west across the northern Gulf of
Mexico into a weak surface low over southeast TX, and continue
farther west as a cold front across south TX. A cold front will move
onshore across the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday.

Weak elevated instability is anticipated north of the frontal
boundary over portions of west/central TX Wednesday, and showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop/expand in coverage as an
impulse within the broadly cyclonic mid-level flow over the southern
high Plains moves southeast across the region and augments
larger-scale ascent. Additionally, forecast soundings show
sufficient instability (upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg) and minimal
convective inhibition within the near-frontal air mass, suggesting surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible as the cold
front moves south. Substantial cloud-layer shear and modestly
impressive mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km may support small
hail with elevated storms north of the front, while any sustained
cluster of storms that develops near the front could produce gusty
winds.

..Bunting.. 11/02/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 030554
SWODY2
SPC AC 030552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A larger-scale mid-level trough residing over the eastern half of
the Lower 48 states will feature a disturbance moving from TX into
the central Gulf of Mexico by early Friday morning. In the low
levels, a front over the western Gulf and south of the TX coast will
push southeastward as a weak surface low develops and moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Friday morning. Model guidance
is consistent in showing showers and thunderstorms expanding in
coverage over the eastern Gulf mainly Thursday night with isolated thunderstorms mainly affecting the western portion of the FL
Peninsula and lower Keys. Relatively weak lapse rates/modest
low-level moisture will likely preclude severe storm development.

Elsewhere, a mid-level trough will move from the Pacific Northwest
into the northern High Plains while a subsequent upstream trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by early Friday morning.

..Smith.. 11/03/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 031715
SWODY2
SPC AC 031713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Thursday through Thursday night.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale mid-level ridging now inland of the Pacific coast
appears likely to broaden and lose amplitude while shifting eastward
during this period, a bit slower than an upstream short wave trough,
which is forecast to accelerate across the Pacific Northwest coast
through the northern Rockies, ahead of amplified larger-scale
troughing approaching the Pacific coast. As this occurs, models
indicate that one downstream short wave impulse, initially digging
to the lee of the southern Rockies, will gradually turn eastward,
across the Texas Gulf coast and into the Gulf Basin by 12Z Friday.
To the northeast, another consolidating impulse is forecast to turn east-northeast of the upper Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley, into
the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower levels, a confluent regime between the two lead
perturbations will maintain cold surface ridging, but the center of
this ridging may consolidate over the Ohio Valley while surface
troughing develops and deepens across higher portions of the
northern and central Great Plains. The surface cold front may
gradually progress offshore of the northwestern/northern Gulf coast,
and a bit faster off the south Atlantic coast by late Thursday
night, in the wake of a developing frontal wave over the western
Atlantic. Another cold front may continue inland across the
northern intermountain region and northern Rockies, while stalling
across northern portions of the Great Basin and California, ahead of
another cold front forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest toward
12Z Friday.

It appears that an initial narrow plume of moist return flow
emanating from the subtropical Pacific will become increasingly cut
off by the frontal progression, somewhere across the southern Sierra
Nevada through the coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, but
another will gradually develop across the eastern Pacific into the
Pacific Northwest. East of the Rockies, higher moisture content
will be confined to areas along/south of the cold front, but
moisture emanating from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and
Caribbean may stream northward toward the Florida Peninsula by late
Thursday night.

...South Texas...
Thunderstorm probabilities are generally expected to have diminished
or be in the process of diminishing by 12Z Thursday. However, low
thunderstorm probabilities may persist into the day, associated with
weak lingering instability above/to the northwest of the surface
front and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid-level
short wave impulse.

...Florida...
Higher probabilities for scattered thunderstorm development probably
will not develop until Thursday night, associated with the
low/mid-level moistening and increasing large-scale ascent in
advance of the mid-level troughing developing over the Gulf Basin.
Even this may be largely confined to areas southwest of the southern
Florida Gulf coast, and areas east of the Atlantic coast,
particularly along the front north-northeast of the Melbourne
vicinity.

Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest an environment characterized
by moderate CAPE (on the order of 1000 J/kg) and shear (40-50+ kt)
is possible along coastal areas near/north of Melbourne by late
Thursday night. If this becomes the case, it could be accompanied
by at least some risk for isolated severe storm development.
However, based on consideration of other model output, severe
probabilities still appear less than 5 percent at this time.

...Northwest...
Initial modest mid-level cooling is forecast to shift east of the
Cascades by late Thursday morning, and into the northern Rockies by
Thursday evening. In the wake of preceding precipitation aided by
warm advection, various model forecast soundings suggest that weak destabilization conducive to at least scattered weak thunderstorm
development is possible across parts of the northern intermountain
region. Thereafter, it appears that mid-level cooling supportive of
an appreciable risk for low-topped thunderstorm development may not
reach Pacific Northwest coastal areas until after 12Z Friday.

..Kerr.. 11/03/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 040543
SWODY2
SPC AC 040541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong, potentially damaging thunderstorms are possible
over south Florida on Friday.

...South FL...
A mid-level trough initially over the central Gulf of Mexico will
move east to the FL Peninsula during the period. In response to the
mid-level disturbance, a weak surface low is forecast to develop east-northeastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the FL
Peninsula near Lake Okeechobee during the day. Despite considerable
clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates, south-southeasterly low-level
flow will advect increasingly rich moisture into south FL ahead of
the low. Surface dewpoints are forecast in the upper 60s to lower
70s and contribute to weak buoyancy (generally 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Although low-level hodographs are not expected to be
become large, ample mid to high-level southwesterly flow will result
in effective shear around 45-50 kt. A couple of organized
thunderstorms are possible given the lower CAPE/moderate-shear
setup. The main hazard with the stronger storms will be localized
damaging gusts.

Elsewhere, tranquil conditions are forecast across a large part of
the Lower 48 states.

..Smith.. 11/04/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 041726
SWODY2
SPC AC 041724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the central and southern Florida
Peninsula Friday and perhaps Friday night. Some of these may pose
potential to produce a couple of tornadoes, in additional to a risk
for locally damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue to
progress across the eastern Pacific, toward the Pacific coast, with
downstream ridging forecast to build across much of the Rockies and
Great Plains. To the east of the ridging, models indicate that a
more prominent split in the flow will continue to evolve Friday
through Friday night. While flow trends more zonal across the Upper
Midwest through the Northeast, a modestly amplified trough in the
developing southern branch of mid-latitude westerlies is forecast to
progress across the Southeast and northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
toward the southern Atlantic coast. This troughing is coming
increasingly in phase with a belt of westerlies emanating from the
subtropical Pacific, and expected to remain so through this period,
with large-scale forcing for ascent appearing likely to support the
onset of cyclogenesis along a stalling frontal zone across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the central Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
The details of the frontal wave development through this period
differ substantively among the various model output, but guidance,
in general, suggests that deepening of the surface low across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico through the Florida Peninsula will remain
rather modest to weak into at least early Saturday. This may limit strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields on a broader
scale, and probably is the primary consideration precluding higher
severe probabilities at the present time.

Lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are likely to remain weak and
early day cloud cover/precipitation may inhibit or slow inland
development of the warm sector, but it appears that this will
include seasonably moist air returning from the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico and Caribbean. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer
shear, mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 500 J/kg will at
least become marginally supportive of organized strong thunderstorm development.

Of possible increasing note, the 12Z NAM suggests that there may be
a mesoscale area of modest strengthening southerly 850 mb flow
during the afternoon, in a corridor roughly from Fort Myers through
the Vero Beach vicinity. This is at least similarly depicted in the
04/00Z ECMWF, and forecast soundings indicate that this may be
accompanied by at least modestly enlarging, clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs beneath moderate to strong southwesterly flow
in the 500-300 mb layer. Profiles near the low-level speed maximum
appear to become conducive to discrete supercell development with
the potential to produce tornadoes as it progresses across the
peninsula from mid to late afternoon. While there is not yet much
of a signal concerning this in the latest HREF ensemble, this will
need to be monitored and it is still possible that severe weather
probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 11/04/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 050512
SWODY2
SPC AC 050510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper level low/trough will pivot eastward across the
Southeast toward the Atlantic coast on Saturday. A surface low is
forecast to reside near the northeast FL/GA coast with a cold front
extending southward along the east coast of the FL Peninsula early
in the period. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing near the front
during the morning before moving offshore over the Gulf Stream.
Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity
of the surface low as it tracks east/northeast through the day. A
low-amplitude upper trough over the western U.S. will deepen through
the period as several shortwave impulses migrate across the Pacific
Northwest. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible near
the WA/OR coasts in response. Otherwise, surface high pressure
across much of the rest of the U.S. and a dearth of boundary-layer
moisture will result in mostly quiescent weather conditions across
much of the rest of the CONUS.

..Leitman.. 11/05/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 051656
SWODY2
SPC AC 051655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Modestly amplified, large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely
to continue developing inland of the Pacific coast, and through much
of the Intermountain West, with downstream ridging shifting east of
the Great Plains through the Mississippi Valley during this period.
As this occurs, perturbations within branching flow to the east of
the ridging are expected to remain progressive, including amplified
mid-level troughing within the southern-most branch, which is
forecast to slowly shift east of the south Atlantic Seaboard.
Models indicate that a significant embedded lower/mid tropospheric
cyclone will migrate northeastward along the south Atlantic coast
Saturday through Saturday night, but the moist warm sector boundary
layer probably will remain well offshore.

In the wake of the cyclone and mid-level troughing, further drying
is probable across much of the Gulf Coast states into the
northern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with low-level ridging across
the northwestern Gulf coast precluding the development of a moist
return flow to the west. Generally dry and stable conditions will
prevail across much of the U.S., with negligible risk for
thunderstorm activity.

...South Atlantic Seaboard...
With the warm sector of the occluding surface cyclone, and the
surface warm front, likely to remain offshore Saturday through
Saturday night, the risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears
negligible. However, differences do exist among the various models
concerning the cyclone evolution, and there is some uncertainty with
regard to the warm front and possible near-surface destabilization
along the Carolina coast Saturday night. 12Z NAM forecast
soundings and HREF ensemble output, for instance, suggest that the
environment could become conducive to the evolution of supercell
structures with embedded low-level mesocyclones near the Morehead
City/Cape Lookout through Cape Hatteras vicinity, or offshore
waters, around 07/06-09Z. This will continue to be monitored.

Otherwise, forcing for ascent and weak destabilization within warm
advection rooted in the 850-700 mb layer may contribute to
thunderstorm development as far northwest as the south Atlantic
coastal plain, from northeast Florida and southeast Georgia early
Saturday into eastern North Carolina Saturday night.

...Pacific Northwest...
As a series of short wave perturbations migrate through broadly
cyclonic flow across the region, moderately strong west to
southwesterly low-level flow is forecast to maintain a considerable
onshore flow component Saturday through Saturday night. Beneath
cold mid-level air (cooling to near or below -30C at 500 mb),
occasional low-topped convection capable of producing lightning
appears possible across coastal areas and into the western slopes of
the Cascades of Washington/northern Oregon.

..Kerr.. 11/05/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 060523
SWODY2
SPC AC 060522

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

Quiescent weather conditions are expected across much of the CONUS
with a lack of boundary-layer moisture/instability and surface high
pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity. A surface low over
the Gulf Stream and a departing upper trough moving offshore from
the Atlantic coast could support a few thunderstorms near the Outer
Banks vicinity. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible along
the WA/OR coasts as a series of shortwave impulses shift eastward
over the Pacific Northwest. Instability will remain weak, but steep
lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft could be sufficient for a
few flashes. However, severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/06/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 061656
SWODY2
SPC AC 061655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will dominate much of the central U.S.
tomorrow/Sunday, promoting large-scale subsidence atop a cool, dry
low-level airmass, limiting thunderstorm potential for much of the
CONUS. A couple thunderstorms may linger along the immediate North
Carolina coastal waters region tomorrow morning, as a surface low
departs the area.

A couple thunderstorms also remain possible along the Pacific
Northwest coastline as broad upper troughing overspreads the region.
Forecast soundings depict a maritime polar surface airmass in place,
with cooler temperatures aloft promoting marginal buoyancy for a
couple lightning flashes through the period. Given 40-50 kt winds
present as low as 850 mb, a couple strong wind gusts may accompany
any thunderstorm, though an organized threat for severe gusts is not
expected to materialize.

..Squitieri.. 11/06/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 070516
SWODY2
SPC AC 070514

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Sun Nov 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

A progressive but somewhat low-amplitude mid/upper pattern will
persist across the CONUS on Monday. An upper shortwave trough will
migrate eastward from the Rockies to the mid/upper MS Valley
vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across
the central Plain and upper MS Valley, extending from near Lake
Michigan into northwest OK by Tuesday morning. Very modest moisture
will be in place ahead of the front and instability will remain very
weak, limiting thunderstorm potential. Another upper shortwave
trough will move inland across the Pacific coast states Monday evening/overnight bringing continues areas of heavy rain to parts of
the Pacific Northwest. A few lighting flashes are possible over the
offshore waters west of northern CA Monday night, but thunderstorm
potential will decrease along the coast and points inland.

..Leitman.. 11/07/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 071702
SWODY2
SPC AC 071700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough over the eastern Pacific should amplify as it
approaches the West Coast Monday night. A 50-60+ kt mid-level jet
associated with an embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move
over parts of northern/central CA in this time frame. Strong
large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level jet/shortwave trough
should overspread this region as temperatures aloft gradually cool.
Even though low-level moisture will remain modest, various forecast
soundings from the latest NAM/RAP show weak elevated instability
developing across coastal and inland portions of northern/central CA
from Monday night through early Tuesday morning. This meager
buoyancy combined with the pronounced large-scale ascent may be
sufficient to support charge separation and isolated lighting
flashes with the strongest updrafts. Elsewhere, instability is
expected to remain minimal to nil across the rest of the CONUS
Monday, with little potential for storms.

..Gleason.. 11/07/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 080612
SWODY2
SPC AC 080611

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift eastward to the
High Plains by Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front will
extend from near Lake Michigan into Oklahoma and northwest Texas
Tuesday afternoon. The front will stall as surface lee troughing
develops over the High Plains as the western large-scale trough
approaches the Rockies Tuesday night. This will result in increasing
southerly low level flow and modest Gulf moisture will begin to
spread northward across TX/OK. While some warm advection showers may
develop across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks,
thunderstorm potential will remain low given a lack of greater
instability and weak large-scale ascent.

..Leitman.. 11/08/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 081701
SWODY2
SPC AC 081700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Precipitation should be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of northern/central CA as a shortwave trough moves quickly eastward
from this region over the Sierras and into the Great Basin. While an
occasional lightning flash or two may occur across these areas the
first couple hours of the period, instability should remain too
meager for a more meaningful lightning threat (10% or greater
chance) after 12Z Tuesday morning. Otherwise, a strong mid-level jet
embedded within a large-scale upper trough is forecast to move
across parts of WA/OR through the day. Large-scale ascent associated
with this jet, combined with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures
and the development of weak instability, may support low-topped
convection producing isolated lightning flashes across western WA
and far northwestern OR, mainly Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere, modest
low-level moisture should gradually advance northward Tuesday night
across the southern Plains in a low-level warm advection regime.
However, storms are not currently expected owing to the weak
elevated instability forecast and lingering convective inhibition.

..Gleason.. 11/08/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 090627
SWODY2
SPC AC 090626

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CST Tue Nov 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Plains. Hail
and locally damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with these
storms.

...Southern Plains...

A mid/upper trough will be oriented over the High Plains Wednesday
morning, and pivot eastward toward the mid-MO and lower MS Valleys
by Thursday morning. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to
develop over northwest TX and migrate east near the Red River
vicinity while a cold front advances southeast across OK/TX during
the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Increasing southerly low
level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward, with upper 50s to
low 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast KS.

Increasing, yet still modest, boundary-layer moisture beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates will support weak destabilization (less than
1000 /kg MLCAPE) by afternoon. As the upper trough ejects eastward,
effective shear will increase to around 30-40 kt in conjunction with
increasing ascent along the southeastward-advancing cold front.
While weak instability and a lack of better quality boundary-layer
moisture will limit overall severe potential, at least a few
organized cells capable of hail and locally damaging gusts will be
possible from late afternoon into the evening hours. Tornado
potential appears low, again due to poor low-level instability, but
favorably curved low-level hodographs are noted in forecast
soundings. A brief tornado could occur near the surface low where
low-level shear will be maximized and relatively greater low-level
dew points will be present.

..Leitman.. 11/09/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 091727
SWODY2
SPC AC 091726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Tue Nov 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern
Plains. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be the main
hazards with these storms.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move east across much of the central U.S.
Wednesday as an associated surface cold front moves east/southeast
across the central/southern Plains and mid-MS Valley. Although the
primary surface low will lift northeast across the upper Midwest, a
weaker surface low will develop along the cold front in the vicinity
of northwest TX during the afternoon.

...southern/central Plains...
Although low-level moisture will increase Wednesday, it will remain
somewhat limited with dew points in the mid/upper 50s across the
Marginal Risk area during the afternoon/evening. The presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to generally weak
MLCAPE, although pockets of MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg will be
possible where heating can occur. Ascent with the approaching upper
trough combined with frontal convergence will promote scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon initially over
northern OK/southern KS, with storms developing southward with time
into north TX. Deep-layer shear will support storm organization and
an attendant risk for isolated large hail and damaging winds.
Although overall tornado potential appears limited, it may be
maximized near the Red River vicinity where low-level shear will be
greatest, and the potential for an isolated supercell appears
highest.

..Bunting.. 11/09/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 100615
SWODY2
SPC AC 100614

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over the northern Plains will deepen and shift
east/southeast to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Meanwhile, the
attendant mid/upper trough will pivot eastward across the
central/eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will extend from a
low over western WI into south-central TX early in the period. While
low-level warm advection and southerly flow will allow for
increasing moisture ahead of the front across the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic, instability will be limited by widespread cloud cover/precipitation and poor midlevel lapse rates. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front across a large
portion of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/10/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 101713
SWODY2
SPC AC 101712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Shortwave trough currently moving through the central and southern
Plains is forecast to reach the mid MS Valley early Thursday
morning. It is expected to continue northeastward throughout the day
Thursday, while also becoming more negatively tilted as it
accelerates in response as another fast-moving shortwave trough
moves through the northern/central Plains. At the surface, an
occluded low initially over the upper MS Valley will drift northward/north-northwestward as secondary low develops along the
triple point over the OH Valley. A cold front will extend
southwestward from the triple point, which is forecast near the
central MO/IL border early Thursday morning, and progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day.

Limited moisture return ahead of the front will result in an
increasingly narrow/limited warm sector north of the TN Valley where
the stronger forcing for ascent is expected. This displacement of
the better forcing for ascent from the more favorable low-level moisture/buoyancy, as well as front-parallel deep-shear vectors, is
forecast to limit storm depth, persistence, and severity along and
ahead of the front. A damaging gust or two may occur within the
shallow convection across portions of the middle OH Valley and/or TN
Valley, but the very isolated nature of the coverage precludes
introducing any severe probabilities with this outlook. Much of this
activity is also expected to lack the updraft depth needed to
produce lightning.

Farther west, a few of the deeper updrafts may be able to produce
lightning along the Pacific Northwest coast, primarily early
Thursday morning and late Thursday night/early Friday morning.

..Mosier.. 11/10/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 110626
SWODY2
SPC AC 110624

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over the Great Lakes region and its attendant trough
centered on the mid/lower MS Valley will pivot eastward to the
eastern U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
extend from central NY/PA southward to the VA/NC Piedmont then
southwest to the FL Panhandle early in the period. The front should
push offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon and
sag southward across the FL Peninsula through the remainder of the
period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front,
but weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe
potential from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Instability will
be greater across FL where better boundary-layer moisture will be in
place. However, weak forcing and modest vertical shear, along with
poor midlevel lapse rates will limit storm organization/intensity
and severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/11/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 111730
SWODY2
SPC AC 111728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible
Friday morning through Friday afternoon from the northern
Mid-Atlantic into southern New England.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...
A strong and mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered
over the Upper MS Valley early Friday morning. This cyclone is
expected to move gradually eastward throughout the day, while a
series of shortwave troughs rotate around it. Strong cyclonic flow
aloft will also accompany this cyclone, with even stronger flow
attendant to the shortwave troughs that are rotating through.

One such shortwave is forecast to move from the middle OH Valley
northeastward through the Lower Great Lakes region/Northeast,
accompanied by a strong jet streak of 100+ kt at 500 mb. The
addition forcing associated with this shortwave will likely result
in a strongly forced line of mostly shallow convection along the
front. The depth of this convection will be limited by buoyancy,
although occasional lightning flashes do appear possible. The
strongest flow aloft will likely lag behind this convective line,
but strong deep-layer flow will still be in place across much of the
northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Additionally, low-level flow is
expected to strengthen within the warm sector ahead of the shortwave
trough, with over 50 kt of flow forecast around 1 km. Consequently,
strong wind gusts appear possible within the strongly forced shallow
convective line expected to move across the region, especially if
deeper updrafts are realized (either via storm mergers and/or more
buoyancy). A tornado or two could also occur over southern New
England in areas where a robust low-level veering wind profile will
overlap low 60s dewpoints during the early afternoon.

..Mosier.. 11/11/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 120602
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will be maintained over much of the
eastern CONUS on Saturday as multiple embedded shortwave troughs
move east-northeastward across this region. One such shortwave
trough is forecast to shift quickly from the central Appalachians
across the Mid-Atlantic and New England by Saturday evening. Strong low/mid-level flow is forecast over these areas in association with
the ejecting shortwave trough, and as a coastal low deepens while
developing from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. However,
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited across this
region owing to a prior frontal passage in the Day 1 time frame. Any
storms that can form in this regime will probably remain elevated
due to the limited boundary-layer instability. Still, given the
strength of the flow aloft, occasional gusty winds reaching the
surface may occur if greater buoyancy than currently forecast can be
realized.

Elsewhere, isolated storms may develop during the day along/ahead of
a cold front moving southward across the FL Peninsula. Poor
mid-level lapse rates along with only modest forcing for ascent
aloft should limit overall storm coverage. Occasional lightning
flashes may also occur downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario with
low-topped convection through Saturday afternoon, as weak
instability develops over the water owing to cold mid-level
temperatures with the upper trough over the eastern CONUS.

..Gleason.. 11/12/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 121720
SWODY2
SPC AC 121718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Cyclonic flow is forecast to remain in place across much of the
central and eastern CONUS, reinforced by the progress of a series of
shortwave troughs. A pair of lead waves, one within the northern
stream and the other within the southern stream, will move through
the eastern CONUS and off the East Coast while another shortwave
trough drops through the northern High Plains, northern Plains, and
into the Upper/Mid MS Valley.

A surface low associated with the northern-stream shortwave will
move across New England, with its attendant cold front pushing
eastward across the region. Another surface low associated to the
northern Plains shortwave is expected to move just ahead of its
parent shortwave as an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward
across the Plains.

Stable conditions will dominate across much of the CONUS within this
fairly progressive pattern. The only exception is ahead of the cold
front moving across southern New England where a few updrafts may be
deep enough to produce a few lightning flashes. A few flashes may
also occur in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes as well as ahead of a
weakening cold front across southern FL.

..Mosier.. 11/12/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 130603
SWODY2
SPC AC 130602

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Sunday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will remain over much of the eastern
CONUS on Sunday. Within this feature, a pronounced mid-level
shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes/Midwest across the
OH/TN Valleys through the day, eventually reaching the East Coast by
Sunday night. Due to multiple prior frontal passages, substantial
low-level moisture is forecast to remain confined over the Gulf of
Mexico and parts of far south FL. Accordingly, instability will
likely remain nil ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave
trough, with minimal thunderstorm potential apparent across the
CONUS on Sunday.

..Gleason.. 11/13/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 131638
SWODY2
SPC AC 131637

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are generally not expected across the contiguous
United States on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions are expected across the CONUS on Sunday,
in the wake of multiple cold-frontal passages across the central and
eastern states and the Gulf of Mexico. Another pocket of cold
midlevel temperatures (colder than -15C at 700 mb) will move over
Lake Michigan during the day, and Lake Huron and Lake Erie late
Sunday night, resulting in weak low-level buoyancy, though it
remains uncertain if lake-enhanced convection will become deep
enough to support any lightning activity. Elsewhere, thunderstorms
are not expected.

..Dean.. 11/13/2021

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 140548
SWODY2
SPC AC 140546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough is forecast to develop northeastward on Monday from
the East Coast across the western Atlantic and over the Canadian
Maritime provinces. Although some elevated storms appear possible
off the coast of Long Island and southern New England through the
day, latest guidance continues to suggest that this activity will
likely remain offshore. Another upper trough will move quickly
eastward across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through
Monday evening, eventually reaching the northern Rockies by the end
of the period. Surface high pressure initially centered over the
Southeast should shift slowly eastward to the Atlantic Coast, while
lee troughing develops over much of the High Plains. Modest
low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the southern
Plains and lower MS Valley through the period, but convection
capable of producing lighting appears unlikely across the CONUS
owing to a lack of instability overlapping large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough moving across the western CONUS.

..Gleason.. 11/14/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 141706
SWODY2
SPC AC 141704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid- to upper-level trough will move across the Northeast on
Monday while a progressive flow regime ensues across the northern
tier of states. Surface high pressure will be centered over the
Southeast. Relatively cool and dry conditions will lead to tranquil
weather across much of the Lower 48. Low-topped convective showers
are possible near the WA coast as a disturbance moves from the
Pacific into the northern Rockies.

..Smith.. 11/14/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 150544
SWODY2
SPC AC 150542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low will move eastward across western/central Canada
and the north-central CONUS on Tuesday. At the surface, shallow and
modest low-level moisture is forecast to return northward through
the period across parts of the southern Plains and lower/mid MS
Valley along and ahead of a cold front. Even so, a strong low-level
cap will likely inhibit the development of appreciable instability
ahead of the front, and convection capable of producing lightning
appears unlikely across the CONUS.

..Gleason.. 11/15/2021

$$


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