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ACUS11 KWNS 042044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042044=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-042245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021
Areas affected...portions of the Mid Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 042044Z - 042245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms near the stationary front may
pose an isolated risk for strong/damaging outflow winds this
afternoon and evening. Expected storm coverage should be limited
suggesting a watch is not needed.
DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed isolated thunderstorms developing along the eastern crest of
the Blue Ridge Mountains in western VA and eastern WV. Aided by weak
low-level convergence south of a stalled front and along a surface
pressure trough, these storms are ongoing in a warm, and weak to
moderately unstable environment. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE has developed, which should continue to support
updrafts as they track northeastward across portions of the Mid
Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Observed vertical shear remains
weak, with 20-25 kts of 0-6km shear from local VADs. This should
result in loosely organized multicells/clusters, with the potential
for strong outflow winds into this evening.=20
Latest hi-res guidance and observational trends suggest the ongoing
storms will likely continue northeastward with time into northern
VA, MD and southern PA. Clearing ahead of the convection suggests
potential for storms to linger into the evening. Thus, a low-end
risk for a few damaging wind gusts may exist across portions of he
Mid Atlantic with any stronger storms/weakly organized storm
clusters. Uncertainty on the nature of the severe threat and limited
storm coverage suggests a weather watch is unlikely.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/04/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rfp9i2heXEHVye6lNSzdNXmEJ3M-_pv_aIUFrKhMN7zOlJL00COr96fQl8J0r9j9dUVQNgw6$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38337833 39297815 40327614 40407499 39787426 39197458
38877538 38597635 38307716 38187750 38337833=20
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