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ACUS11 KWNS 052253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052253=20
NMZ000-AZZ000-060030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021
Areas affected...Central and southeast Arizona and far southwest New
Mexico
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...
Valid 052253Z - 060030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues through the evening.
DISCUSSION...The initial arcing line of storms with embedded
supercells has mostly moved north of the best instability and thus
storm intensity has lessened. Scattered measured severe wind gusts
have occurred from earlier storm activity. Farther south, greater
instability remains with MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg per SPC
mesoanalysis with effective shear around 35 to 40 knots. Therefore,
organized storms, including supercells remain possible through the
evening. Severe wind gusts remain the primary threat, but isolated
large hail or a brief tornado may also occur.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 10/05/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qhFuu1xJ3hULFYpzY7JKx_aY4Ray2HgpDqsGFwAdF4s2U4Akpm0RC-SxQ249RFfRSWhUE9cB$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 34381240 35041095 34880998 33810892 32060813 31670814
31260817 31281109 31801278 32011344 32461335 34231341
34381240=20
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