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ACUS11 KWNS 060045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060045=20
NMZ000-AZZ000-060215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

Areas affected...Far eastern Arizona and far western New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 060045Z - 060215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to weaken through the evening into the
early overnight. No downstream watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered severe wind reports have continued to come in
from the cluster of storms currently across eastern Arizona.
Embedded supercells have been responsible for most of these severe
wind gusts. These storms are moving to the eastern extent of the
instability, and loss of daytime heating should continue to
stabilize the airmass ahead of these storms. Therefore, weakening is
expected. However, slightly longer persistence is possible with the
embedded supercells where internal dynamic pressure perturbations
are able to overcome increasing inhibition. However, the isolated
and low-end threat from this activity should limit any need for a
downstream watch.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 10/06/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rt_8m7ywBKuoQab6BGjN-laEueY8msnNfzsxCIKT7clqtgwM2IhOOPk0KLljqLRnwmpFy-Q0$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...

LAT...LON 35491007 35520925 34180824 32830839 32690908 32660948
33991008 34601032 35491007=20



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