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ACUS11 KWNS 061102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061102=20
FLZ000-061300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1804
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021

Areas affected...Western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061102Z - 061300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado are possible across the western FL Panhandle over
the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Storm cluster off the coast of the western FL Panhandle
has shown a strengthening trend over the past half hour or so with
both echo tops and lightning activity increasing. This activity
initially began to strengthen in proximity to the remnant boundary
just offshore but has maintained it strength longer than previous
cells this morning. Some of this maintenance is likely due to the
vertically veering wind profile adding in updraft
rotation/organization. Recent KEVX VAD wind profiles sampled 160-180
m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. This amount of vertical
shear is ample for storm organization and perhaps even a tornado,
despite relatively modest buoyancy overall. Limited area and
duration of the threat will likely preclude the need for a watch but
isolated instances of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado are possible.

..Mosier/Grams.. 10/06/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vH84tzASULkN9O-3MGoGZB8ACW5Bwxxx9KpOFTUHj1ys0GVg1sv8ycqmIoq5pz7OKrxqPkV3$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30488641 30698626 30678572 30418544 30128552 29988578
30158639 30488641=20



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