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ACUS11 KWNS 081853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081852=20
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-082115-
Mesoscale Discussion 1811
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021
Areas affected...portions of the northern Great Basin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 081852Z - 082115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm beneath an upper trough may be
capable of producing strong wind gusts or hail this afternoon and
evening. Expected severe coverage will likely remain low enough that
a watch will not be needed.
DISCUSSION...As of 1900 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed increasing thunderstorm coverage across portions of eastern
NV and western UT. Located beneath a slow moving upper trough across
portions of the Great Basin, these storms are ongoing in a cool but
weakly unstable environment with SPC mesoanalysis showing between
250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Regional model soundings show long straight
line hodographs with bulk shear values of 35-50 kts. Despite the
weak buoyancy, the favorable shear may support a few organized
storms including a marginal supercell. Steep low and mid-level lapse
rates from the cold pocket aloft may support a few stronger
downdrafts and some hail potential into this evening.=20
While uncertainty on the overall severe threat remains large,
additional convective development appears likely over the next
couple of hours in response to increasing forcing for ascent ahead
of the trough and continued diurnal heating. Hi-res guidance shows
scattered storms moving out of eastern NV into northwestern UT and
southern ID late this afternoon and early this evening. Thus the
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or hail may linger into
the evening before nocturnal inhibition limits the threat after
sunset.
..Lyons/Hart.. 10/08/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uixWaSrp3SLCJYRwFHFt8KuHDrLcsS9XmtVoOqss3PA2avvNjQuuXV3mPYHTR2CbBQ1b6m-P$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...
LAT...LON 39741532 41041533 42101473 42701390 43221243 42731136
41681111 40391179 39801260 39291373 39171459 39741532=20
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