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ACUS11 KWNS 091724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091724=20
FLZ000-091900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1813
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Areas affected...portions of south Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091724Z - 091900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging wind
gusts this afternoon. A weather watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC, widespread thunderstorms were
developing across the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula in
response to strong heating and lift along the backside of a weak
trough across the southeast. Continued heating of a moisture airmass
with dewpoints in the 70s F is support moderate destabilization with
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across south Florida. Mid-level flow is not
overly strong, but 20-30 kts of shear may support a few organized
multi-cell clusters through the afternoon. As storms continue to
develop and move southeast, they should gradually coalesce into
several clusters. Stronger cold pools may support isolated instances
of damaging winds.=20

Overall severe coverage is expected to remain low, but widespread
storms suggests some low-end damaging wind potential across much of
south Florida this afternoon/evening. The relative greatest severe
potential appears to be along the southeastern Coast within the next
couple of hours with storms approaching from the northwest. However,
overall confidence in severe coverage is low. Given the overall
uncertainty, a watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Hart.. 10/09/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tvsC7ezIHTmA2Dbnda0qlmwvDXm-2uvDa8pjSVewLXrmEO6aErU27dg8FZLprBdcajrAByvF$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 27458029 26957986 26127990 25518004 25158031 24928058
24918072 25848118 26708123 27268091 27458029=20



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