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ACUS11 KWNS 092041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092040=20
SDZ000-092215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1814
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Areas affected...Parts of east central/northeastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...

Valid 092040Z - 092215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514
continues.

SUMMARY...More rapid intensification of thunderstorms is probable
through 4-6 PM CDT. This may include the evolution of one or two
supercells gradually posing increasing potential to produce
tornadoes, along a narrow corridor initially near or south of Huron
into the Brookings/Watertown vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Within a broader developing cluster of thunderstorms,
strongest convection is currently focused near/northwest of Huron.=20
This is near a slowly deepening lower/mid tropospheric cyclone, just
to the north of a developing surface low now centered to the west
northwest of Yankton. 20Z surface observations indicate 3-4 mb
2-hourly surface pressure falls across much of southeastern South
Dakota, as far north as the Huron and Brookings vicinities, which is
now just south of where lower/mid tropospheric warm advection has
become maximized.=20=20

With the warm sector boundary layer becoming characterized by CAPE
up to 1500 J/kg, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear,
substantive further thunderstorm intensification seems likely
through 22-00Z. This probably will include the evolution of
supercell structures, particularly near the southern flank of the
evolving convective system, with low-level hodographs gradually
enlarging and becoming more conducive to the risk for a tornado or
two.

..Kerr/Hart.. 10/09/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s8xM9AqnNlNVT_ul96EUVEzRmeIeQGmWwrzd5032EMN9qUL2BCAhJcsr-nTuX1TLZ778JSu5$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 44849848 45179739 44979647 44279686 44159755 44049805
44039859 44419840 44849848=20



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