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ACUS11 KWNS 092250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092250=20
SDZ000-092345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southwest and south-central South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092250Z - 092345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Hail and gusty thunderstorm winds possible with strongest thunderstorms. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of an
upper low moving into the northern Plains this evening resulted in most-unstable CAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg developing across
southwest and south-central South Dakota, where an axis of surface
temperatures into the mid 70s exists. Thunderstorms in this area
pose a threat for strong, gusty thunderstorm winds and hail. The
threat should diminish as the storms move east out of the better
instability axis and as diurnal heating wanes.

A watch is not expected.

..Marsh/Bunting.. 10/09/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o2H67QEdUyZJGbkjgmUNitCpz-Qhi4DfX0ZVytOjqpxwaeQxrOLDcSAROCtH-0TK1Y2nzUx1$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 43810206 44560179 44860105 44610044 43990019 43460021
43180054 43240162 43520200 43810206=20



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