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ACUS11 KWNS 092300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092300=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-100030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021
Areas affected...Southeast ND...Eastern SD...Southwestern and
central MN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...
Valid 092300Z - 100030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat will spread into southwestern
Minnesota over the next few hours. New severe thunderstorm watch
will likely be warranted by 10/00z.
DISCUSSION...Squall line has matured and is advancing east-northeast
at roughly 30-35kt across the northeastern half of ww514. Latest
diagnostic data suggests surface low is located over southeast SD,
very near the southern updraft along the squall line over Kingsbury
County. Focused LLJ is shifting downstream across southwestern MN
and this will encourage a well-organized MCS to propagate east of
the current watch in the next 1-2 hours. Damaging winds have been
reported along the leading edge of the squall line, and should
continue for the next several hours as significant buoyancy resides
ahead of this activity across southern/central MN. While damaging
winds are the primary severe risk, especially given the linear storm
mode, wind profiles and radar data suggest one or two brief
tornadoes along the QLCS as it propagates east-northeast.
..Darrow.. 10/09/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rSq3NTfpLBD1z3VC1CNYkWnyri5yY5ye-KvChxrE2Z1tRVUyoDPP5RQvaXRWdj_0UQZot9Db$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 45999742 46859514 46129393 45099494 44369708 45999742=20
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