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ACUS11 KWNS 100127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100127=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-100300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Areas affected...Southeast ND...West-Central MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...515...

Valid 100127Z - 100300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514, 515
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds will accompany a squall line as it races
northeast this evening.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized squall line has evolved and is surging
northeast across the remainder of ww514 into the western portions of
ww515. An MCV has evolved over the northwestern portion of a larger
complex of storms over southeast ND, well north of the primary
surface low. The apex of a larger bow is racing east-northeast
across Douglas County MN, and should advance across Alexandria very
shortly. Damaging winds in excess of 50-60kt is likely noted at
times with this squall line. Strong low-level warm advection is
focused across west-central/central MN this evening as 45kt LLJ is
feeding this surging line. Current thinking is the squall line will
continue to propagate across the remainder of ww515 over the next
several hours, primarily affecting the northwestern two-thirds of
the watch.

..Darrow.. 10/10/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rV87JLY3BDMoUK-snNd0rDxZVHMDwSXvXxUKSRlZXa9lyMUXu8bN1OvvigO7czLoBkBUVhbN$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 46579713 47009579 46429448 45409503 45189617 45909627
46579713=20



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