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ACUS11 KWNS 102046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102046=20
TXZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...Parts of western north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102046Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development is
possible across the Texas Big Country by 6-8 PM CDT, some of which
will pose a risk for severe hail and wind, and perhaps a tornado or
two.

DISCUSSION...As larger-scale mid-level troughing continues east of
the southern Rockies into the southern Great Plains late this
afternoon through early evening, models suggest that mid-level
forcing for ascent may gradually increase south of the Red River
through much of western north Texas by 00-01Z. Strongest lift is
expected to develop along the leading edge of stronger lower/mid
tropospheric cold advection. It appears that this will surge
southeast and east of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains, into the
vicinity of the dryline over the Texas Big Country, before potential
of substantive strengthening of convective development commences.

The western edge of the deeper boundary-layer moisture currently
appears just south and east of the Abilene vicinity into areas west
of Wichita Falls, where mixed-layer CAPE is increasing in excess of
1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is strong and already supportive of
organized convective development, including supercells, with
considerable further strengthening (to around 70 kt) of
southwesterly flow around 500 mb forecast by early evening.=20
Substantive further intensification of flow in the 850-700 mb layer,
associated with southern Great Plains surface cyclogenesis, may not
occur until later this evening. However, particularly given
thermodynamic profiles including steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse
rates, the environment still probably will be conducive to
convection capable of producing severe hail and wind, with perhaps
some risk for a tornado or two.

..Kerr/Hart.. 10/10/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v-gwgvCav9cpKVaAcpXq3Adm_gAbMg2dvex7hcTkRFR6VfHABZ1zTky_c9K9grhi21VJrnhH$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33859921 33759772 31849871 31620028 32239984 33109975
33859921=20



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