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ACUS11 KWNS 102125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102125=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-102300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1822
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma into western North Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

Valid 102125Z - 102300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

SUMMARY...Initiation of discrete storms is becoming more likely in
the vicinity of Frederick, OK within the next 1-1.5 hours. The
threat for tornadoes is increasing in southwest Oklahoma into parts
of central Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus continues to develop south of
Frederick, OK. The strongest pressure falls in the last few hours
have occurred in this vicinity. Confidence is increasing in storm
initiation within the next 1-1.5 hours. Given the backed surface
winds and over 50 kts of effective shear, initial storm mode will
likely be supercellular. KFDR VWP has begun to show an increase in
low-level SRH recently as well. Storms that form in this region
would pose the greatest tornado risk over the next few hours.

..Wendt.. 10/10/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vI1EHXAwATg8YTHohdVWmNz6a-BqqlH_jxMp3-TDTGyaSOoDhlJsLy_v7D664n2v03ydUqOy$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 33819849 33849879 33949902 34059910 34529892 34989844
35259790 35289751 35069737 34389761 33819849=20



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