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ACUS11 KWNS 110019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110019=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-110145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

Valid 110019Z - 110145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across southeast KS/southwest
MO. A new tornado watch may be warranted for this region.

DISCUSSION...Strong short-wave trough is advancing east across the
southern High Plains this evening. In response, LLJ is forecast to
increase markedly across eastern OK into southwest MO over the next
several hours. 00z sounding from OUN exhibits a classic supercell
wind profile, but some capping still exists near 700mb. Adequate
buoyancy extends northeast ahead of the front into southeast KS
which should encourage strong/severe thunderstorms along/ahead of
the front in the next few hours. Strengthening low-level shear
supports some risk for a few tornadoes.

..Darrow.. 10/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qCyxBwQtlJM8WNgkWm9RLDQc--qP57MZoKtNX4Z4oWeybbmobeVVSgGsIgcBqv-C6A0-h_Ff$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37039671 38139554 38279432 37539438 36529564 37039671=20



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