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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1825

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 11 01:11:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110111
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110111=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-110215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1825
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0811 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

    Areas affected...north Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 518...

    Valid 110111Z - 110215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 518 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of strong winds, large hail, and
    tornadoes will move east across the region this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop and intensity along a
    surging dryline across northwest Texas this evening. These
    thunderstorms will be capable of producing very strong winds as
    strong westerly low-level flow along and west of the dryline is
    transported to the ground within thunderstorm downdrafts.
    Additionally, ahead of the dryline, low-level theta-e and
    instability will be maintained as the nocturnal low-level jet ramps
    up and moisture slowly increases, yielding some hail threat.
    Additionally, tornadoes cannot be ruled out within the advancing
    squall line given the degree of low-level shear across the warm
    sector, especially with any kinks that develop along the line. Thus,
    despite the loss of diurnal heating, the severe potential will
    increase through the evening across much of north Texas.

    ..Marsh.. 10/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sTaNF3pCHUWa1eurag45WznLZJ6A36cqQdZ-eREhhJhGO12P5UM7_HVPSwtFf3yZG_IYhG1B$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31299942 32089886 33159837 33819802 34709677 34729614
    34289570 33529539 32169556 31349584 30819686 30899837
    31299942=20



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