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ACUS11 KWNS 110316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110316=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-110415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...north and northeast Texas...southeast
Oklahoma...and far southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 518...

Valid 110316Z - 110415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 518 continues.

SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms continues to move east
across north Texas and southeast Oklahoma this evening. Very strong,
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to move east across north Texas
and south Oklahoma this evening. These thunderstorms have a history
of producing severe, damaging winds, with several measured wind
reports of 60-70 mph across the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metro,
including a 70 mph wind at DFW, were recorded within the last hour.
The strong wind fields conducive to these severe thunderstorm winds
will also be capable of producing tornadoes along the leading edge
of the squall line, especially where kinks in the line occur. Given
the very moist, unstable airmass and strong kinematic fields across
the area, the severe threat will continues.=20

Farther east, across northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas, more
uncertainty exists as to the magnitude of the severe potential.
Here, instability is weaker than farther west and will be farther
removed from the stronger influence of the lifting mid-level trough.
However, the level of organization of the ongoing storms, and a
couple more hours of theta-e advection may support an extension of
the severe risk into this area. Conditions here, downstream of
Tornado Watch #518, continue to be monitored for possible watch
issuance this evening.

..Marsh.. 10/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uxm-tC_MJrx00TdF1LHmOKQXpXkWksVN9O-biQSBUFDeK9C-K8cCPJt1i59Rx520Kf2YREcr$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 31209831 32089755 33189713 34169671 34819657 34929613
34809418 34169412 32629404 32239454 31639559 30739704
31209831=20



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