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ACUS11 KWNS 110558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110558=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-110730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Areas affected...Portions of east-central/northeast TX...far
northwestern LA...extreme southeastern OK...and western AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 518...520...

Valid 110558Z - 110730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 518, 520 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat should continue in a narrow
corridor early this morning. Downstream watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a line of storms extending
from parts of east-central TX into western AR early this morning. A
fairly narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer
instability is present along and just ahead of this ongoing
convection per latest mesoanalysis. With strong low-level and
deep-layer shear present over the confined warm sector, potential
for storm organization will likely continue in the short term (next
1-2 hours). Both damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado remain a possibility given the strength of the low-level flow associated with
a 35-45+ kt low-level jet. With time, these storms will encounter
rapidly increasing convective inhibition across western/central AR, northwestern LA, and east TX. A corresponding decrease in intensity
is expected to gradually occur. At this point, a downstream watch to
the east of Tornado Watches 518/520 is not anticipated.

..Gleason.. 10/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uOTJRZ8y07cnSfj90TNmhMi7HFYaflsgx74LE0KgIAzN_hB8iE8uVccvolPpSU7blYVpUJxF$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31029654 31579605 32309532 33699479 35269377 35159309
34699337 33429350 32339355 31679392 30989616 31029654=20



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