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ACUS11 KWNS 110627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110626=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-110730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Areas affected...Portions of northwestern AR and southwestern MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 519...

Valid 110626Z - 110730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 519 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue across mainly
southwestern Missouri in the short term, but downstream watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms that has recently moved from eastern
OK into western AR and southwestern MO has generally weakened as it
encounters a less unstable airmass. One exception has been with a
small segment across southwestern MO, where a low-level circulation
with corresponding CC minimum has been detected by the KSGF radar.
Clearly the low-level shear remains favorable for a brief embedded
tornado or two with this activity. But, the thermodynamic
environment downstream, with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, appears only
marginally conducive for sustained severe convection. Tornado Watch
519 is currently scheduled to expire at 07Z (2 AM CDT). While a
small extension in time and area to WW 519 is possible across a
small part of southwestern MO downstream of the ongoing storms, the
overall severe threat is not expected to be great enough beyond the
next 1-2 hours to justify new downstream watch issuance.

..Gleason.. 10/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o_QkHZQo2DFHMj1a0m48Opvfdwfhz0sdKstlQOkBH7DCVwH_cK7_tjbytIZ_kab77E3uA_Pn$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35059438 35639442 36369451 37359453 37649411 37569337
37139319 36119342 35409380 35059438=20



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