This is a multi-part message in MIME format...
------------=_1633946463-54005-1251
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable
ACUS11 KWNS 111000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111000=20
MOZ000-111200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021
Areas affected...Portions of southwestern MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 111000Z - 111200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for a brief tornado and isolated strong/gusty
winds may continue for a couple more hours early this morning. Watch
issuance is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...A low-topped line of convection has recently moved into
parts of southwestern MO. A strong, 50+ kt low-level jet is present
over this region. This low-level jet and a pronounced southwesterly
mid-level jet associated with a shortwave trough ejecting from the
southern Plains across the Ozarks are supporting strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. One of the cells embedded within the
low-topped line recently acquired low-level rotation, and a
corresponding CC minimum in dual pol radar data from KSGF. Although
the low-level shear remains rather favorable for continued storm
organization in the short term across southwestern MO, the
thermodynamic environment is much more marginal. A leading wave of
convection has already moved across this region, with surface
temperatures generally in the upper 60s. Weak boundary-layer
instability should continue to limit updraft intensities,
particularly as these storms move eastward and away from a narrow,
maximized corridor of this instability characterized by MLCAPE
around 500 J/kg. While a brief tornado and strong/gusty winds may
continue to be a threat for the next couple of hours, the overall
severe threat will probably remain too isolated to justify new watch
issuance early this morning.
..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/11/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tMgyUTOyTobdOOULT4CdBclHUis00TxHm0C5YtC5l8HL8q6odwOkn4Gwg5MWm5L9d1xofjHc$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37629426 37919437 38269393 38269310 37769260 37089279
36539306 36539377 36829380 37309403 37629426=20
------------=_1633946463-54005-1251
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1633946463-54005-1251--
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)