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ACUS11 KWNS 111406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111406=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-111630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Areas affected...eastern MO...western and central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111406Z - 111630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored this morning for surface-based
thunderstorm development. The initial area of concern will be over
central MO and areas northeastward towards the MS River. A tornado
watch will likely be needed by midday for portions of eastern MO
into western IL. It is uncertain whether surface-based storms and a
subsequent tornado risk will develop as far north as extreme eastern
IA.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a compact/intense
mid-level shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley. Weak
convection has been maintained this morning within the warm conveyer
belt from southeast MO through the Saint Louis area and into western
IL. A surface trough/windshift is analyzed this morning arcing from
near the low through central and south-central MO. A small area of
cloud breaks is noted in visible-satellite imagery over central MO
where forcing is maximized and over the location of greatest concern
this morning.

Model forecast soundings show gradual destabilization this morning
into the midday hours as temperatures slowly rise into the lower 70s
with a moist boundary layer. Very strong low-level flow noted at
the Saint Louis 88D VAD is resulting in a large low-level hodograph
(400+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). Once sufficiently strong updrafts can develop/persist, a severe risk will likely ensue with an isolated
risk for tornadoes and damaging winds being the primary concerns.

..Smith/Hart.. 10/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!spfMoQ05TgJQpywJzbCb_1DsnZL_E7Q3RYPaNDLTCY3Gmkeog5HWOplM1tMHqkCNRvG05jCh$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 38659231 39239227 40839106 41139028 41028944 40568880
39668882 37748963 37789059 38409140 38659231=20



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