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ACUS11 KWNS 112157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112157=20
MIZ000-INZ000-112330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1834
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Areas affected...Northern IN into western lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 112157Z - 112330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind and perhaps
a brief tornado will be possible into early evening.

DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, a loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is
moving across northwest IN. Several wind gusts of 50-60 mph have
been noted with this cluster, along with a report of 1-inch hail.
This activity is co-located with a rather strong low-level jet to
the east of an occluding cyclone over western IL. While buoyancy
decreases rapidly with eastward extent across IN, somewhat stronger
heating and richer low-level moisture has allowed for moderate
destabilization into western portions of lower MI, and ongoing
convection may be sustained into early evening as it spreads north-northeastward. Largely unidirectional wind profiles will tend
to favor line segments with locally damaging wind as the primary
threat, though some backing of low-level winds is resulting in 0-1
km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2, sufficient to support a brief tornado
threat. If ongoing convection continues to show signs of
organization, watch issuance is possible across northern IN and
parts of lower MI.

..Dean/Guyer.. 10/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sc5cxUxj3XqafAfFY1ghUj8COeJFzV0-GcFUX1z8kueoPAOfgEBwejja8KDnIa2u9-QpnBo5$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON 42158540 40338615 40378616 40378687 41078676 42138669
43738657 44078640 44088569 43928535 43668511 42848529
42158540=20



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