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ACUS11 KWNS 120121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120120=20
MIZ000-120315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Areas affected...Western Lower MI...Eastern Upper MI...adjacent
portions of Lake Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120120Z - 120315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible tonight as storms
spread northward.

DISCUSSION...At 0115Z, a long-lived arc of thunderstorms with a
history of wind damage is moving northward across western lower MI,
with additional strong thunderstorms noted across eastern Lake
Michigan and the adjacent lakeshore areas of northwest lower MI.
Despite the onset of nocturnal cooling, seasonably warm/moist
conditions are helping to maintain MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
downstream of ongoing convection across western lower MI and eastern
portions of upper MI. Rather strong deep-layer southerly flow (as
noted on 00Z APX sounding and recent APX/GRR VWPs) is helping to
maintain effective shear of 30-40 kt, and an isolated damaging wind
risk may persist tonight as convection spreads northward, especially
with any persistent east-west oriented line segments.=20

A gradual weakening trend is expected with time later tonight, and
the overall threat appears too limited for watch issuance.

..Dean/Guyer.. 10/12/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vp9SyL6g7ZBTnqASvAtDCErJ1F3jYOp47aTsfOm1Wq6-_bfNR9yk7ll_l0TdhiaIcRdoe_Vy$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43358654 44028660 45598573 46278506 46338434 46148396
45628395 44188489 43188523 42958537 43078583 43248617
43358654=20



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