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ACUS11 KWNS 121930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121929=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-122000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas into northwest
Oklahoma and far northeast Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Outlook upgrade=20

Valid 121929Z - 122000Z

SUMMARY...An upgrade to Category 4/Moderate risk will be introduced
in the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect a greater risk for
strong tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution/convection allowing model
guidance consensus has been generally trending upward in the
intensity and longevity of deep, moist convection over portions of
the southern High Plains. Potential exists for multiple
discrete/semi-discrete supercells to develop ahead of a Pacific
front late this afternoon/evening. These storms are expected to
progress eastward into an ambient environment characterized by very
strong low-level shear, resulting in large, curved hodographs and
effective SRH values exceeding 400 m2/s2, especially across portions
of southwest KS/northwest OK/far northeast TX Panhandle. Here,
potential exists for at least a few intense, cyclical tornadic
supercells to develop, and a long-tracked tornado or two cannot be
ruled out. As such, portions of the central Plains will be upgraded
to Category 4/Moderate risk in the upcoming 20Z Day 1 Convective
Outlook.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/12/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r_PCo55xQEaAi-YuOuZRCvITvlrwnG1_HmgiGYFxyq6XZSQDQGa4gRD_5u7dclkJ3b3PJ2tX$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37820131 38210130 38260110 38130068 37789998 37409977
36969957 36579950 36309955 36119968 35969986 35850027
35900047 36520078 37820131=20



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