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ACUS11 KWNS 122014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122014=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-122245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 122014Z - 122245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells may develop through evening, from the
eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Tornadoes,
perhaps strong, and very large hail will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a front extending from northern
TX into southwest OK which is becoming more diffuse with heating.
This boundary separates a cooler/capped air mass over much of OK
from a destabilizing air mass over northwest TX and into the TX
Panhandle. Meanwhile, a dryline stretches from north to south across
the TX Panhandle and South Plains.

Visible satellite shows stable billow clouds north of the boundary,
but these are gradually eroding from south to north as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s F. A growing CU field is also evident over
northwest TX, where MLCAPE is in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Backed
surface winds on the cool side of the boundary are contributing to
100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per FDR VWP.

Although convergence is currently weak, it is expected to increase
around 00Z and into the evening as the dryline eventually pushes
east with the upper trough. A few more hours of air mass
modification will occur, including moistening. In addition, the
low-level jet will continue to increase to over 50 kt, further
enhancing shear.

Assuming a cell or two can form, they should quickly acquire
rotation, with tornadoes and hail likely. Any lone cells that can
maintain access to the warm side of the boundary will have the
potential for a strong tornado.

..Jewell/Grams.. 10/12/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!swDhDpq3i4CJCC0TwQhBy94UpZnePE68wVwjUvf85954XfIbpKzkw0obuQ4Dm3v3A9civngO$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34959921 34639932 34139955 33929976 33760008 33720037
33790060 33930069 34480088 35050125 35580118 35960072
36389981 36319967 36279954 35749914 34959921=20



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