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ACUS11 KWNS 130156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130156=20
KSZ000-130300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0856 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021
Areas affected...central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 130156Z - 130300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Line of storms across western KS is expected to persist
into the overnight through central KS. Damaging wind should be the
main threat, but at least a couple of tornadoes will also be
possible.
DISCUSSION...Line of storms from just east of Goodland to west of
Garden City is moving east at around 35 kt. Embedded organized
structures continue to be observed. Moisture will continue to return
northward through the downstream warm sector with dewpoints likely
to rise into the low 60s F across southern KS and 50s farther north.
Even with this return of low-level moisture, forecast soundings
indicate a near-surface stable layer, suggesting inflow to the
storms will probably remain just above the surface. Northward
destabilization with time with MUCAPE from 1500-2000 J/KG along with
large low-level hodographs and strong effective shear will continue
to support embedded organized storms with damaging wind the main
threat. However, given degree of effective storm relative helicity,
at least a couple of tornadoes will remain possible, especially over
the southern half of KS with any embedded supercells or
meso-vortices despite the sub-optimal near-surface layer.
..Dial/Guyer.. 10/13/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tqbsRn19Vo8GYSiGl6_jMquH1UcuIVjioS8e5N1TQSwDsclHE7xZurIYCrbmkvctRGkhawmq$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37219983 38610012 39829981 39759812 37989800 37199823
37219983=20
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