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ACUS11 KWNS 130435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130434=20
KSZ000-130600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Areas affected...central through south central Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...

Valid 130434Z - 130600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will
persist into the early morning hours across central through south
central Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Line of storms with organized structures including
bowing segments and occasional mesovortices continues through
central KS at around 40 kt. Latest objective analysis indicates up
to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and dewpoints continue to rise through the 50s
F and even lower 60s across southern KS. A weakly stable
near-surface layer is still evident on forecast soundings, which is
an overall limiting factor for a more robust tornado threat.
Nevertheless, very large low-level hodographs with up to 500 m2/s2
0-1 km storm relative helicity will continue to support some
potential for occasional mesovortices and a few QLCS tornadoes as
dewpoints increase a bit further. Otherwise, damaging wind remains
likely with the stronger more organized storms as activity continues
east next few hours.

..Dial.. 10/13/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v1eZ_qyivNUdXgsH9pxQgzThVJyXzPc307W36yTd5pa9wd9g2bBmgzSUs1IHnbmFbcHUsl10$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 37089974 38369956 39039906 38959761 38049730 37119762
37089974=20



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