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ACUS11 KWNS 130619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130618=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-130745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1847
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the far eastern TX
Panhandle...northwest TX...and western OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 526...

Valid 130618Z - 130745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 526 continues.

SUMMARY...A broken line of storms capable of producing scattered
severe wind gusts, isolated large hail, and occasional tornadoes
will continue into western Oklahoma early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe storms have mostly grown upscale into
a broken line across the far eastern TX Panhandle and northwestern
OK along and just ahead of a surface cold front. A rather moist
low-level airmass is present ahead of this activity, with surface
dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to around 70F. But, RAP
forecast soundings from across this area show a shallow near-surface
stable layer present in low levels, which is contributing to weak
convective inhibition per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Regardless,
recent radar data from KVNX show strong inbound velocities
associated with the segment of the line across far northwestern OK.
A measured severe wind gust to 60 mph was recorded earlier at the OK
Mesonet site in Buffalo, OK as the line moved through. Scattered severe/damaging wind gusts will likely remain the primary severe
threat with the line, as MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and 50+ kt of
effective bulk shear will continue to support storm organization and
intensity.

Farther south across the far eastern TX Panhandle, a couple of
supercells are present in a broken line. Isolated large hail will be
possible with this activity in the short term in addition to severe
downdraft winds. Given the strength of the low-level flow (55+ kt in
the 0-1-km layer per recent KFDR VWP) and a very favorable, curving
hodograph in the boundary layer, occasional tornadoes may occur with
any supercells that can remain at least semi-discrete, as well as
with low-level circulations embedded within the QLCS.

..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!obAAAZQgo3VlBtvSk4oSmehYX_Luf2E5vmOaiszaD31XHHrmtyg0-pZapAQWxef6GgSUubDC$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34980089 35650008 36929936 36959791 36269808 35579848
35019901 34390005 34130103 34250128 34980089=20



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