This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1634111714-54005-2408
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 130755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130754=20
KSZ000-130930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1849
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Areas affected...Portions of north-central into northeastern KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...

Valid 130754Z - 130930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds remain possible in the short
term. Downstream watch issuance into more of northeastern Kansas
appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a squall line has recently
weakened as it moved from north-central into northeastern KS. This
is occurring largely due to a less favorable thermodynamic
environment with eastward extent across northeastern KS. Fairly
strong MLCIN should continue to temper updraft strength, even though
low-level warm/moist advection is occurring with a stout, 50-60+ kt
southerly low-level jet. Recent radar data from KTWX shows some
strong inbound velocities within the line, and isolated strong/gusty
winds may continue in the short term even with the marginal
thermodynamic environment. At this point, it does not appear that
the warm/moist advection at low levels will be enough to offset the
nocturnal increase in convective inhibition. Accordingly, the
overall severe threat should remain rather isolated/marginal, and
downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vsFE-D9R29gTC0jNgnq-Sw_XW4eDYrOnLYiRYWJXjPZjsBZZNeGWe5dkdQWKHnE3ohYxSdRj$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...

LAT...LON 38639728 38959712 39959711 39969625 39419599 38579601
38639728=20



------------=_1634111714-54005-2408
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1634111714-54005-2408--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)