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ACUS11 KWNS 131017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131016=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-131115-
Mesoscale Discussion 1852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK and southeastern KS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 526...
Valid 131016Z - 131115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 526 continues.
SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado may occur with a line of storms in the short term, but
downstream watch issuance will probably not be needed.
DISCUSSION...The line of storms moving eastward across
central/northern OK and southeastern KS has mostly produced
sub-severe wind gusts over the past couple of hours. This is largely
due to the influence of a near-surface stable layer limiting
convective downdraft potential. Still, there is plentiful low-level
flow per the KTLX VWP, and occasional strong to severe wind gusts
will remain possible in the short term. Additionally, a low-level
circulation embedded within the QLCS has recently strengthened over
the OKC metro. With effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2, a brief
tornado also appears possible. Regardless of the near-term severe
potential, the overall threat appears increasingly marginal/isolated
with eastward extent across OK/KS early this morning. At this point,
downstream watch issuance does not appear likely.
..Gleason.. 10/13/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!prFGmkF-3F6a93N0SdCk43w-FJktYjq_q0moOV9iZc3xDh1GdmN9oDdIrY3ub6sVr3erSA8g$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 34889840 35629780 37089681 38059612 37729504 36569548
35389640 34819737 34759802 34889840=20
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