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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1854

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 20:11:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132010=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-132115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1854
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of North and South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132010Z - 132115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A low-end risk for a tornado will be be possible this
    afternoon. Given the nature of the threat a watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1955 UTC, regional WV imagery showed a deep
    vertically stacked low was located across western SD. To the north
    and east of the low, satellite imagery showed clearing taking place
    across the ND/SD border. Diurnal heating is supporting weak
    destabilization within the narrow zone ahead of the surface
    cold/occluded front. Towering cumulus should evolve into an arc of
    low topped thunderstorms this afternoon. Model soundings show steep
    low-level lapse rate with 0-3 km MLCAPE in excess of 100 J/kg. With
    abundant vertical vorticity close to the low center, a few weakly
    rotating storms may have the potential to produce a brief weak
    tornado. Given the small spatial and temporal severe risk, a watch
    is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Mosier.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o_WUAzO4tYsbCh1NTus-GCSLYG2i2U_x58p51Od-DTtDW9Kw3vAC86nUZNP8oFw9LvSqKvEN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 45229675 45319717 45599762 45599817 45519860 45329903
    45289924 45339949 45599968 45969974 46209968 46589913
    46679836 46559756 45889679 45749677 45379672 45229675=20



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