This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1634158788-54005-2769
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 132059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132059=20
TXZ000-132230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Areas affected...portions of North Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132059Z - 132230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts or
hail into this evening. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Late afternoon radar imagery showed widespread showers
and thunderstorms ongoing across North Texas near a slow moving cold
front. Likely elevated given their position behind the surface
front, these storms are being supported by weak destabilization,
with SPC mesoanalysis showing 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Effective
shear remains relatively strong (40-50 kts) beneath a southwesterly
mid-level jet. This suggests some potential for organized multicells
and or an elevated supercell. Isolated hail and or a strong wind
gusts cannot be ruled out into this evening. The primarily
mitigating factor will be the limited and elevated nature of the
buoyancy. Given uncertainty on storm evolution and expected low-end
risk, a weather watch is not likely needed.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 10/13/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pvrr6ohuJiEYAFlAT2GqIQMs0ySCzdvxbTL1jqUPg5Q3WZ9hnXuZ64_-feOA-zge2PwlLr-n$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31759883 31619923 31749938 32019939 32369921 33009885
33439808 33639754 33659686 33499662 33119655 32739698
32389759 32089809 31829870 31759883=20



------------=_1634158788-54005-2769
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1634158788-54005-2769--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)