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ACUS11 KWNS 132347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132346=20
MNZ000-140045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Areas affected...Western Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132346Z - 140045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...New thunderstorms developing across west-central Minnesota
may pose a brief/weak tornado threat for the next hour, but the
overall threat will remain too limited to warrant a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows new thunderstorm development
across parts of west-central MN over the past 30-60 minutes. While
instability continues to wane amid diurnal cooling, RAP forecast
sounding hint that instability remains sufficient (around 250-500
J/kg MLCAPE) to support convection rooted in the boundary layer. VWP observations from KMPX show 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH over the
region, which is supports recent Mesoanalysis estimates of 200 m2/s2
effective SRH ahead of the line. Furthermore, surface vorticity
remains elevated along the frontal boundary, and 0-3 km MLCAPE
values between 100-125 J/kg are noted in recent Mesoanalysis.
Consequently, a weak/brief tornado remains possible with this
convection. Given the onset of diurnal cooling and diminishing
instability, this threat will not likely persist beyond 01Z and a
watch is not expected.

..Moore/Guyer.. 10/13/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uYBdnTWijJS400IrR5AOg3_mUSOj2-C87Z89zpKBoaOsjoAEgAURPfKqwBdhvDrnfLpat5Gx$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46559537 47039622 47259646 47649642 47799603 47709547
47559516 47379485 47029455 46709428 46289405 45919396
45659399 45709428 46049468 46159494 46559537=20



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