This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1634244415-119248-96
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 142046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142046=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

Areas affected...northern Arkansas into southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142046Z - 142245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible from northern Arkansas
into southeast Missouri/southern Illinois with gusty winds the most
likely threat.

DISCUSSION...Storms have slowly increased over northern AR near a
diffuse front, with modest instability along the ahead of the
boundary. This front is situated roughly parallel to the winds
aloft, suggesting storms may track along it over the next several
hours.

Effective SRH is generally weak, but deep-layer shear is favorable
at 35-40 kt to sustain a few longer-lived storms given the moist
environment. Weak cyclonic shear has been noted recently on the AR
activity, and while tornadoes are not expected, could aid gusty wind
potential.

..Jewell/Dial.. 10/14/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!puMmiK4FTNU2WJUTGnAIcAN4NVbERKTTRn6ez-Pyc8ZJzAaP81wq0StS1HmXd3A6L5M5LrVe$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 37128895 36558922 36058990 35849049 35499135 35279210
35249284 35399301 35569304 35829296 36189263 37399082
37679023 37738988 37658945 37398915 37128895=20



------------=_1634244415-119248-96
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1634244415-119248-96--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)