• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1862

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 15 09:09:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150909
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150908=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-151045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1862
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0408 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern OK into northwest AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 150908Z - 151045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of strong to locally damaging gusts are possible
    over parts of eastern into northwest AR early this morning. The
    overall threat is expected to remain marginal and sporadic,
    precluding the need for a watch at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A well-organized bow continues to shift eastward across
    eastern OK early this morning. Radar data from KSRX indicates a
    broad, well-defined rear-inflow jet. At least weak low-level
    inhibition exists across the region, and convection appears to be
    somewhat elevated based on mostly sub-severe measured gusts from
    regional OK Mesonet and other observation sites. However, a narrow
    corridor of weak instability, along with strong vertical shear, is
    maintaining the bow. A measured gust of 61 mph in McIntosh County
    around 30 minutes ago suggests at least some localized threat for a
    couple of marginally severe wind gusts could persist downstream into
    parts of northwest AR over the next couple of hours.

    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 10/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qEVJo-EyQvLCsk66VvrgBXyGxehAsIVWUM5eZg2lRU-UY8Rp2jDmz7qxkgOun2NhnQ-RDkk4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35229495 35299549 35629544 35889540 36089496 36229427
    36319355 36249318 35959305 35719314 35469335 35369373
    35309413 35249450 35249478 35229495=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 15 09:12:24 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1634289148-119248-244
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150912
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150912 COR
    ARZ000-OKZ000-151045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1862
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0412 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern OK into northwest AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 150912Z - 151045Z

    CORRECTED FOR MISSING STATE ID IN SUMMARY

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of strong to locally damaging gusts are possible
    over parts of eastern OK into northwest AR early this morning. The
    overall threat is expected to remain marginal and sporadic,
    precluding the need for a watch at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A well-organized bow continues to shift eastward across
    eastern OK early this morning. Radar data from KSRX indicates a
    broad, well-defined rear-inflow jet. At least weak low-level
    inhibition exists across the region, and convection appears to be
    somewhat elevated based on mostly sub-severe measured gusts from
    regional OK Mesonet and other observation sites. However, a narrow
    corridor of weak instability, along with strong vertical shear, is
    maintaining the bow. A measured gust of 61 mph in McIntosh County
    around 30 minutes ago suggests at least some localized threat for a
    couple of marginally severe wind gusts could persist downstream into
    parts of northwest AR over the next couple of hours.

    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 10/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oPF-N3qaZk3F8kCFLQiD_y6G_YGciSoxswBWxZ9mT8I0Ytw7KOxKa1yf0MY12vF2PGIi-fDB$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35229495 35299549 35629544 35889540 36089496 36229427
    36319355 36249318 35959305 35719314 35469335 35369373
    35309413 35249450 35249478 35229495=20



    ------------=_1634289148-119248-244
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1634289148-119248-244--

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