This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1634314530-119248-329
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 151615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151614=20
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-151845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Areas affected...central and northeast Arkansas into far western
Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151614Z - 151845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some possibly severe producing damaging
gusts, are expected to develop over the next few hours from Arkansas
into western Kentucky and Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from northern AR
into southern IL and IN, with 68-72 F dewpoints ahead of it. Gradual
height falls will continue over the region as the shortwave trough
moves toward the MS Valley, as pockets of heating aid
destabilization.

Objective analysis and modified forecast sounding indicate around
1000 J/kg MLCAPE over AR, with lesser values farther northeast. The
12Z LZK sounding shows a prominent midlevel inversion, which is
lessening instability. The SGF and ILX soundings also show this
midlevel warm layer.

Despite the marginal instability, strong deep-layer shear is in
place, resulting in primarily long, straight hodographs. Lift along
the front will prove sufficient to support increasing storm
coverage, and forward-tilted storms with motions over 35 kt will
lead to favorable storm-relative inflow. As such, at least a few
severe cells and/or bows are expected, producing damaging wind
gusts. Hail may also occur, though not particularly large due to the
limited instability.

..Jewell/Grams.. 10/15/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tlMYyJ2yVbTEteVbR8P-arGsyUlhaQkvnxxCuW0h1PQExfncpYoxG3EsUQvMV6P_NcaZ9yQ6$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 35099280 35419210 35759142 36499056 36898994 37368903
37308864 36958847 36468859 34888994 34219049 33949123
33989237 34229283 34689289 35099280=20



------------=_1634314530-119248-329
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1634314530-119248-329--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)