This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1634315816-119248-333
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 151636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151636=20
PAZ000-151800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1864
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151636Z - 151800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of hail and locally damaging wind
are possible into early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster is moving across parts of western/central PA as of 1630Z, with the southernmost storm in the
cluster displaying some supercell characteristics. This activity is
likely being driven by a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough
moving across the lower Great Lakes and an associated weak low-level
warm advection regime. VWPs from PBZ and CTP show relatively weak
low-level flow, with only modestly favorable midlevel flow noted
from the CTP VWP, so ongoing activity may tend to weaken with time
as it moves eastward into a generally less unstable environment, and
watch issuance is not anticipated in the short term.=20

Later this afternoon, additional storms may develop across a larger
portion of the region, within a gradually improving CAPE/shear
parameter space, so some severe threat will persist across the area
in the wake of the ongoing activity.

..Dean/Grams.. 10/15/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qMhoTkvK3F5WbTg7KwVUfoaskFdVJoQ4japsHSYVX9LDrFaEfVwsgtxibxLPC39n0vZz0LLa$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 40877931 41217949 41517946 41697908 41727851 41617797
41507777 41177765 41007767 40767785 40707796 40587832
40587878 40877931=20



------------=_1634315816-119248-333
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1634315816-119248-333--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)