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ACUS11 KWNS 160245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160244=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-160445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Areas affected...northern and northeast KY...southwest and southern
OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 160244Z - 160445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible tonight owing to
organized thunderstorms episodically intensifying in a moist, weakly
unstable, but strong deep-layer shear environment.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of thunderstorm clusters
over southeastern IN and central KY as of 0240z. This activity is
located on/near the cold front. Water-vapor imagery shows a
mid-level vorticity maximum located over the Ozarks this evening,
and this feature will continue to approach the OH Valley tonight as
large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening mid- to high-level
flow overspread the region.=20=20

The 00z Wilmington, OH raob showed a moist boundary layer but poor
lapse rates and only meager MUCAPE (200 J/kg). It was noted that
recent RAP forecast soundings appeared too aggressive with MUCAPE
for southwest OH compared to the 00z raob and SPC mesoanalysis.=20
While it seems probable that this activity will be somewhat limited
in overall intensity, an isolated risk for damaging gusts could
develop with any more organized/persistent storm structures late
this evening into the early overnight.

..Smith/Guyer.. 10/16/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p74H7KakA-czfTk5LFhRB00kQxUE1UR7VzXfi0n9_Uz5cnsm5OVEMYTKTnuMg3r_LhOZm3SY$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 39018492 39638343 39578266 38968225 38128282 37828420
37588499 38118526 39018492=20



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