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ACUS11 KWNS 160617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160616 COR
OHZ000-160745-
Mesoscale Discussion 1869
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021
Areas affected...portions of southeast Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 160616Z - 160745Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A weak, brief tornado or two may occur over parts of
southern Ohio over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...A persistent supercell near the southeastward-advancing
cold front has produced several moderate mesos with radar-indicted
tornado debris signatures in Highland and Ross counties over the
past hour. This cell appears to be located near a meso low and/or
MCV, which is likely supporting locally enhanced SRH. Furthermore,
this cell is within an area of relatively stronger low-level
instability and surface vorticity as noted in latest mesoanalysis.
Downstream surface dewpoints are in the low/mid 60s with locally
backed surface winds. This should continue to support at least low
potential for sporadic re-intensification of ongoing convection and
some threat for weak/brief spin-ups to occur over a relatively small
area. The broader environment appears unlikely to support a more
widespread threat or increasing convective coverage. While a tornado
watch is not expected at this time, trends will continue to be
monitored.
..Leitman/Edwards.. 10/16/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rogcgs3cgpoGNV7Kqm6SmTZpf4EyrcmfFhC9T4O8zo9BlephQujlacOAWz3WTKNyJBnvPBYW$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...
LAT...LON 39958275 40338190 40468145 40438113 40228102 39928109
39698142 39508195 39368245 39398280 39448300 39628312
39778301 39958275=20
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