• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1873

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 16 18:56:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161856
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161855=20
    VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-162030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1873
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0155 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

    Areas affected...Western NY...Much of VT...Far Western MA...Far
    Western CT

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529...

    Valid 161855Z - 162030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and maybe a brief tornado
    will continue across the region for the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Shallow convective line extending from the northernmost
    NY/VT border to the NY Hudson Valley continues to move
    east-northeastward at about 30-35 kt. Only modest changes in the
    thermodynamic environment preceding the line have occurred over the
    past hour or so, with much of the area still characterized by
    temperatures in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s.
    A pocket of somewhat higher low-level moisture exists across far
    northern VT, where mesoanalysis estimated MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg. Additionally, the wind profile across the region remains supportive
    of low-level rotation, particularly across northern VT. Recent VAD
    from CXX sampled over 350 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
    and over 500 m2/s2 of 0-3 km storm-relative helicity. These
    conditions suggest the threat for damaging wind gusts and maybe even
    a brief tornado will continue for the next hour or two before
    limited instability likely leads to a diminished threat across New
    England.

    ..Mosier.. 10/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vLUiBsYHOHsqlAt_1UbhChEVPdVTX1Z4raNzkLpL06zViEhgdTjhEk8LDjHPrUH8Oq7AzCu7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 42127506 43137423 43787377 44507356 44797362 44997319
    44977252 44297228 42247291 41597341 41437527 42127506=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 16 19:13:30 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1634411617-119248-713
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161913
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161913 COR
    VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-162030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1873
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0213 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern NY...Much of VT...Far Western MA...Far
    Western CT

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529...

    Valid 161913Z - 162030Z

    CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN AREAS AFFECTED

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and maybe a brief tornado
    will continue across the region for the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Shallow convective line extending from the northernmost
    NY/VT border to the NY Hudson Valley continues to move
    east-northeastward at about 30-35 kt. Only modest changes in the
    thermodynamic environment preceding the line have occurred over the
    past hour or so, with much of the area still characterized by
    temperatures in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s.
    A pocket of somewhat higher low-level moisture exists across far
    northern VT, where mesoanalysis estimated MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg. Additionally, the wind profile across the region remains supportive
    of low-level rotation, particularly across northern VT. Recent VAD
    from CXX sampled over 350 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
    and over 500 m2/s2 of 0-3 km storm-relative helicity. These
    conditions suggest the threat for damaging wind gusts and maybe even
    a brief tornado will continue for the next hour or two before
    limited instability likely leads to a diminished threat across New
    England.

    ..Mosier.. 10/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vAGc6KCk1ya_XVGbj3MNH70iqPRiqopFN7bCjjJwP_YZdETgqC39vddKiMeEzVDZm7rZZI4d$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 42127506 43137423 43787377 44507356 44797362 44997319
    44977252 44297228 42247291 41597341 41437527 42127506=20



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