This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1634420434-119248-792
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 162140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162139=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-162345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1874
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Areas affected...Long Island and southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162139Z - 162345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for damaging gusts may continue into the
early evening across Long Island and southern New England.

DISCUSSION...A broken squall line is oriented north-south from the
NY/MA/CT border into the greater NYC area as of 535pm EDT. The
airmass ahead of the squall line over southern New England is
marginally unstable with temperatures in the lower 70s, and
dewpoints ranging from near 60 deg F in central MA to the mid 60s
near the coast. The strength of the wind profile supports storm
organization but the deep-shear vector is largely parallel to the
squall line and this may limit the overall potential for more
intense downdrafts from developing. Nonetheless, a conditional risk
for an isolated pocket or two of damaging gusts may continue as the
squall line moves across Long Island and southern New England over
the next couple of hours. While it seems unlikely a severe
thunderstorm watch will be needed, convective trends will continue
to be monitored.

..Smith/Guyer.. 10/16/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qGFF4cOExeP6joBW9Dn3S5FrbiHLwMOewBpZxTZeKl2xsEg2NItiMEta3web0xGeCNSNKghW$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 40647375 41677317 42697278 43197165 42927077 42427080
41017187 40557331 40647375=20



------------=_1634420434-119248-792
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1634420434-119248-792--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)