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ACUS11 KWNS 201239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201239=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-201415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Areas affected...southwest MN into northwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 201239Z - 201415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail this morning.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing
this morning near a surface low over western IA/MN in an area of low
level warm advection ahead of an upper trough and surface cold
front. While instability will remain weak across the region given a
cool surface temperatures and modest boundary-layer moisture, steep
midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km are in place over the
region amid favorable effective shear. This should continue to
support briefly organized clusters/cells this morning. The strongest
cells may produce isolated hail stones up to 1 inch in diameter. The
overall severe threat is expected to remain limited and a watch is
not expected.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 10/20/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qdSfaZqjp_vBY3qlREHSAKbc3tFC3g9NnAXVlx25sVIQqSl4iO-onpl-MksxpYVsZHhIABxc$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 44139648 44199618 44159500 43909437 43479393 43049388
42669401 42409421 42319448 42319533 42549630 42649661
43449664 43909662 44139648=20



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