This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1634841621-2133-268
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 211840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211839=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-212145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1878
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Areas affected...northern Ohio...western Pennsylvania and New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211839Z - 212145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase along the cold front in
Ohio, and may pose a marginal wind/small hail risk eastward into
western Pennsylvania and New York.

DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough continues to move rapidly
east across MI with a cold front from north-central OH into northern
KY. Substantial cloud cover currently exists over eastern OH and
western PA/NY, but limited heating earlier has warmed the boundary
layer somewhat. Still, instability is quite limited.

Evident on visible imagery is a plume of steeper low-level lapse
rates just ahead of the front from central KY into southwest/central
OH. Here, cold air aloft will continue to overspread the region,
aiding destabilization. MUCAPE on the order of 500-750 J/kg is
likely, and additional clearing may occur later today farther east.

Radar shows cells becoming more numerous along the OH portion of the
front, and this trend is expected to continue across northern OH
this afternoon. Given the cellular storm model, small hail will be
possible. Strong deep-layer shear may also support fast storm
movement with isolated strong gusts. A severe gust will be possible
with the strongest cells.

Further, a supercell is possible after 21Z and perhaps closer to
00Z, as low-level shear increases over eastern OH, western PA and
western NY, with effective values of 160-200 m2/s2. Trends in
boundary-layer destabilization will need to be monitored through
evening.

..Jewell/Bunting.. 10/21/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sAVo7DLT4_BUGSdNwz0USbcUde59C-V_cYq2vQdGgAq9ryI-4jW5TnKK8-ZfEwNPi5kW90IL$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 40597972 40138008 39498063 38978136 38468232 38428286
38618368 38838384 39698307 40828248 41828190 42058172
42278130 42408022 42747929 43087912 43217899 43197872
43067868 42487868 41417915 40597972=20



------------=_1634841621-2133-268
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1634841621-2133-268--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)