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ACUS11 KWNS 212025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212024=20
TXZ000-212300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Areas affected...Portions of far west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212024Z - 212300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of producing occasional gusty
winds and hail should continue through the rest of the afternoon.
Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed this afternoon over the
Davis Mountains and vicinity in far west TX. This region remains
displaced to the south of stronger mid-level flow across the
northern/central CONUS. Still, there is modest veering/strengthening
of the wind field with height through mid levels per recent VWPs
from KMAF. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear should help foster
occasional storm organization. The presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates observed on the 12Z MAF sounding suggests some threat for
isolated marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. Diurnal
heating of the boundary layer has also steepened low-level lapse
rates, and occasional strong to severe downdraft winds may also
occur as the cores collapse. With a lack of stronger flow aloft,
storm motions should remain rather slow, with the overall severe
threat likely remaining quite isolated this afternoon. Therefore,
watch issuance is not expected.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 10/21/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q5Izpaa6FmfxXxs3tytcnnFLRKiGFG9V3SxDsf55C2oYanfOnG86GD9D0CGvG9z32Kh-4dAR$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON 30520459 30910411 31050357 30590277 30060280 29600321
29640398 29870444 30150464 30520459=20



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