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ACUS11 KWNS 221727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221726=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-222000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1883
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina...southeast Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221726Z - 222000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form around 19Z, and a few may
become severe. Isolated damaging gusts, marginal hail, and perhaps a
brief/weak tornado will be possible before storms move offshore
around 00Z.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and surface observations show a cold
front moving south across northern and central NC, with slower
speeds into southeast VA/northeast NC where a surface low is
forecast to develop. Lower to mid 60s F dewpoints exist ahead of the
front, with GPS water vapor sensors indicating up to 1.40" PWAT in
place.

With the help of heating, MUCAPE will increase to over 1500-2000
J/kg, beneath 40 kt midlevel southwesterlies. Low-level winds may
remain relatively backed near the weak low, resulting in sufficient
hodograph length and SRH to support a supercell or two. Cellular
storm mode would support marginal hail in this case, and a
brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out as well.=20

While a watch is currently not anticipated, environmental trends
will continue to be monitored.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/22/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ty-MTLZLrHtgRuz6tGS4IVXaBVXYYprV647AZQgQtrjN3nMH2U6GpiYWPfuY71eGBxg0NAH_$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 35667542 35277620 35177724 35607785 36067781 36367748
36877693 37007644 36957594 36447578 36187568 35667542=20



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