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ACUS11 KWNS 230724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230723=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-231000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1884
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas and adjacent portions
of northeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230723Z - 231000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A period of intensifying thunderstorm development appears
possible prior to and through daybreak, with perhaps a few storms
becoming capable of producing severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Bands of convective development with embedded
thunderstorms have gradually evolved across the region, aided by
large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm advection,
generally rooted above a cool/stable boundary-layer. Further
strengthening of west-southwesterly flow (in excess of 40 kt) just
above the surface through around the 850 mb level is forecast
through 09-12Z, as a subtle mid-level perturbation digs
east-southeastward from the higher plains. It appears that this
will be accompanied by further low-level moistening, in addition to
enlarging hodographs within the elevated storm inflow layer.=20
Furthermore, model forecast soundings suggest that increasing lift
will begin to cool/destabilize an initially relatively warm/stable
layer near or below 500 mb. As this occurs, a period of
intensifying discrete storm development appears possible, perhaps
accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail, before stronger
convection begins to consolidate and the low-level jet begins to
weaken after daybreak.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/23/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q7iSgtHCzGcbDo9req8PEnyaPL0oHUgeQOjDGGcLrP93jnLhYIX_YnAxoHHaxI2zf4GnPY_r$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 38129664 38009563 37689426 37489391 36989379 36699473
36739592 37069729 37609735 38129664=20



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