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ACUS11 KWNS 232148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232148=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-232315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Areas affected...South central KS...western OK...southeast TX
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 232148Z - 232315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development possible along the dryline
the next couple of hours, with an attendant threat for isolated
large hail and/or strong outflow gusts.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a couple of areas of
deepening cumulus and initial orphan anvils along the dryline north
of Childress TX and southwest of Pratt KS. Surface temperatures in
the upper 80s with dewpoints of 56-60 suggest that vertical mixing
has been sufficiently deep to remove convective inhibition in a
narrow zone along the dryline, such that a storm or two may form
late this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) and
effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt appear favorable for splitting
supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and/or strong
outflow gusts. The main uncertainty is storm coverage given the
lack of stronger forcing for ascent, and the onset of nocturnal
cooling and associated increases in convective inhibition. Thus, do
not anticipate the need for a watch at this point, though a widely
spaced storm or two could pose a severe threat for a couple of hours
this evening.
..Thompson.. 10/23/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sjv6CQv5Bc9XKTKySyllGwDZCXKuQjogMKEPi6MTflBBchWqPO35XemKvyB4ENbDs7Zj6jYA$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 38229851 38399844 38409826 38289801 38039806 37679824
37169854 36629895 35789947 34819989 34770020 34920031
35180027 36709944 37619879 38229851=20
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