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ACUS11 KWNS 240214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240214=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240445-
Mesoscale Discussion 1886
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0914 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Areas affected...far northeast Kansas and southeast
Nebraska...northern Missouri...far western Illinois and southern
Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 240214Z - 240445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to develop around 03Z over
northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska, and persist eastward across
northern Missouri and into western Illinois. Large hail is possible
with the strongest cells.
DISCUSSION...A warm front will gradually lift north across eastern
KS and MO tonight, with increasing lift as a 50-60 kt low-level jet
develops. Theta-e advection is forecast to be maximized over
southeast NE into northern MO, and moistening just off the surface
should eventually lift the capping inversion seen on 00Z soundings
between 850 and 700 mb.
Temperatures aloft become cooler with northern extent, with 500 mb
values of -12 to -13 C expected over the MCD area. Forecast
soundings suggest instability will be sufficient to produce hail, in combination with 40-50 kt effective deep-layer shear.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sKTFhbWeHQWZhtISbuDfbWc6twXu5nHAe2TQh67rWjI6G3AFp-iyUKt89TKdmGWUPpsgz2aO$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 39399238 39459562 39579678 39989727 40029737 40889735
40889167 40689115 40469091 39599098 39389123 39399238=20
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